WPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression (99W)

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 270600
CCAA 27060 47644 NAMELESS 08262 11272 12294 215// 93107=

Only T1.5 from JMA.

[supercane]

Difference in opinion about current location. From JTWC's new significant weather advisory:
701
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZAUG2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270421ZAUG2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N
131.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270059Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 270122Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS INDICATES BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
<snip>

[supercane]

Chacor, had to look it up, but thanks for introducing me to the SAREP format and to twister's text server. Was wondering where it went.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 26.1N 127.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 32.2N 124.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Typhoon10]

I cant get on JTWC, seems like it blocked!

[StormingB81]

I say about an Hour and we will finally have some rain over here. you wouldnt think it would be right on our door step.

[StormingB81]

Well still no rain its getting here very slow; It is on its way though. Could have to worry about some flooding. PLUS it looks like this system has stalled out. WOnder what that could do to the system but I am sure it is moving and it is playing tricks with my eyes

[KWT]

The ECM still tries to develop a weak system with this region, though its a little weaker then what it was on its 12z run yesterday.

[StormingB81]

Still waiting for something here..lol I take that back it did rain this morning and roads ponded up quick but that lasted 45 min..then we did have a lightning show last night kept knocking out the street lights it was so bright..lol

[senorpepr]

620
FKPQ30 RJTD 271200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100827/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NIL
NR: 3
PSN: N2700 E12710
MOV: N 09KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 27/1800Z N2850 E12640
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/0000Z N3005 E12620
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 28/0600Z N3430 E12430
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/1200Z N3440 E12425
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20100827/1800Z =

[StormingB81]

And NOW after waiting all day it is Raining here in Okinawa..well down where I am..lol

[Infdidoll]

Well, the rain is here...wind, so far, is unimpressive. In fact, it's pretty tame. Come on, invest...this all you got?

[StormingB81]

That is what I was thinking....Maybe tomorrow will pack a little bit more but this one is a yawner..I was hoping for a little something something

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 27.0N 127.2E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 34.7N 124.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



JMA Typhoon model not that excited for this system:

FXPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 270600UTC 26.1N 127.3E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 27.7N 126.1E +001HPA +002KT
T=012 30.6N 124.6E 000HPA +001KT
T=018 32.7N 123.7E 000HPA 000KT
T=024 34.5N 123.2E -002HPA 000KT
T=030 36.7N 122.9E -002HPA 000KT
T=036 38.3N 122.8E -003HPA -002KT
T=042 39.3N 122.8E -002HPA -003KT
T=048 40.3N 124.7E -003HPA -006KT
T=054 41.6N 126.1E -002HPA -008KT
T=060 44.4N 128.7E -005HPA -008KT
T=066 46.4N 129.4E -008HPA -009KT
T=072 49.3N 133.7E -012HPA -009KT
T=078 49.9N 135.2E -010HPA -005KT
T=084 51.0N 136.5E -009HPA -009KT
T=090 51.6N 137.2E -007HPA -009KT
T=096 50.6N 137.0E -007HPA -009KT
T=102 51.9N 138.8E -006HPA -004KT
T=108 52.3N 139.8E -005HPA -003KT
T=114 55.4N 145.0E -003HPA -006KT
T=120 52.3N 160.4E -008HPA +008KT
T=126 52.8N 162.9E -007HPA +005KT
T=132 53.4N 165.7E -008HPA +003KT=

[StormingB81]

You see last year and now this year they love to go around Okinawa..lol Makes me wonder if there is a force field around us

[Chacor]

JMA forecasting it to move pretty fast too. Might go XT before it even gets named I suspect.

[supercane]

Last vis:


Perhaps consolidating somewhat, but looks to be SE of Okinawa:


Microwave:

[Infdidoll]

I'll name it: Pain-in-the-rear-storm-that-won't-give-anyone-a-day-off-work-yet-will-skyrocket-the-humidity-with-enough-rain-to-be-a-nuisance.

[supercane]

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 27.8N 126.9E POOR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 35.6N 124.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =