WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

[supercane]

Link to NRL page



From sat pic's file name:
91WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-165N-1187E.100pc.jp

[supercane]

[supercane]

18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 119E WEST 10 KT.

Morning vis:


Recent microwave:


SAB Dvorak classification:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2101 UTC 15.2N 117.4E T1.0/1.0 91W -- West Pacific

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 262300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/262300Z-270600ZAUG2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.6N
134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 131.4E, <snip>
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5N 118.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED ALOFT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE UNORGANIZED
LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 15.1N 116.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 15.9N 113.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

This one popped up quickly out of nowhere! Shear is dropping over the area and it looks to be in quite a weak steering environment. China and Vietnam going to have to keep a close eye on this. Mods, please can we change title of thread to reflect it's a TD now...

[StormingB81]

WPAC is waking up now. See what the other invest may do. This is the mos taction at once here this year though.

[Typhoon Hunter]

HKO think it could drift slowly towards south China coast:

"The weather is mainly fine over the coastal areas of southeastern China. An area of low pressure over the northern part of the South China Sea is expected to intensify gradually and edge closer to the south China coast, bringing unsettled weather to the region midweek next week."

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT pass:

[supercane]

Latest microwave, this time from TRMM, shows improved organization:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Nice images there supercane, thanks for posting them. Looks like it's consolidating nicely! Amazing this was only designated an Invest about 12 hours ago!

[phwxenthusiast]

This is from PAGASA...

Weather Advisory No. 03
FOR: LOW PRESSURE AREA
Issued at 11:00 a.m., 27 August 2010
The Low Pressure Areas (LPA) was estimated at 130 km Southeast of Basco, Batanes (19.5°N 122.7°E), 870 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes (24.5°N 130.5°E) and 330 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.5°N 117.5°E). These weather systems is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly the western section which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in these areas are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.

The next advisory will be issued tomorrow morning and the updates will be incorporated in the regular issuance of public weather forecasts.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 15.1N 116.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 16.3N 114.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

Vis looks pretty impressive over the past 4 hrs:


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/0232 UTC 15.2N 116.6E T1.5/1.5 91W -- West Pacific

[Chacor]

That does look very good indeed. Circulation is very obvious on that loop and it almost seems to be developing a you-know-what...

[Chacor]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 270430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 15.4N 116.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 19 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 262214Z 37 GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270122Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ASYMETRIC LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT NEARBY OBSERVATIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS (CONFIRMING THE
ASCAT PASS) AND A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LLCC, AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280430Z.//

[supercane]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 15.3N 116.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 16.6N 114.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF has got a handle on this now. The have it drifting north slowly and the stalling out south of Hong Kong whereupon it intensifies into a major typhoon albeit a small one. Then it gets pulled west and buzz saws Guangdong coast. Let's see if subsequent models runs support this...

[phwxenthusiast]

ECMWF has got a handle on this now. The have it drifting north slowly and the stalling out south of Hong Kong whereupon it intensifies into a major typhoon albeit a small one. Then it gets pulled west and buzz saws Guangdong coast. Let's see if subsequent models runs support this...

yeah, very compact...
only UKMET has a similar track... CMC actually brings it NE, back to Luzon lol...