WPAC: Ex-Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

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supercane
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#121 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 7:02 pm

Latest vis:
Image

Panning out you can see Lionrock and Namtheun in their duet:
Image

Microwave:
Image

WTPQ21 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 20.8N 117.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 21.3N 118.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 011800UTC 22.3N 119.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 021800UTC 23.4N 119.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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#122 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:19 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 20.8N 117.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 22.0N 119.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 020000UTC 23.6N 119.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 030000UTC 24.7N 118.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
Image
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#123 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:32 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.4N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.4N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.6N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.6N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.3N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 117.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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#124 Postby dhoeze » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:39 pm

i am seeing a south east movement... can anyone confirm?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm LIONROCK (1006/07W)

#125 Postby Typhoon10 » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:08 pm

Someone is telling me ECMWF is modelling this swinging to the south, then west, then north uptowards Hong Kong? Is this correct, anyone can send me the link to the model?
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#127 Postby dhoeze » Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:34 pm

thanks for the link supercane
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#128 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:34 am

Latest ASCAT pass:
Image
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Re:

#129 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:16 am

dhoeze wrote:i am seeing a south east movement... can anyone confirm?

JMA agrees with you.
WTPQ21 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 20.5N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 22.2N 119.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 020600UTC 23.8N 118.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 030600UTC 24.9N 116.6E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#130 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:43 am

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 017
WTPN31 PGTW 310900
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 21.0N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.4N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.6N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.7N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 117.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

Image
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#131 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:44 am

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.8N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.0N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.8N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.7N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 119.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W
(KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WTPQ21 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 20.6N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 22.8N 119.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 021200UTC 24.0N 116.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 031200UTC 24.5N 113.6E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Image
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#132 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:02 am

WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE LLCC AND THE
CONVECTION TO DECOUPLE. TS 07W IS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TS 09W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST TURNS TS 07W
NORTHWESTWARD LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS FORECAST ALSO
DECREASES MAXIMUM INTENSITY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR CAUSING AN EXPOSED LLCC.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 24 AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN. BY TAU 36, TS 07W AND
TS 09W ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE, WITH TS 07W REMAINING AS THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION. AS TS 07W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, THE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND ALLOW TS 07W TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. TS LIONROCK IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT TS 09W DISSIPATES
PRIOR TO MERGER WITH TS 07W. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH GFS AS
THE EASTERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST TURNS TS 07W SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS, ECMWF, AND GFDN.//
NNNN

Image
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#133 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:06 am

This storm has had a very erratic track from the looks of things, what was orginally going to be a straight forward track has become far more complicated thats for sure!
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#134 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:30 am

Latest ASCAT superimposed with sat clearly shows the shear Lionrock has faced throughout its existence:
Image
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#135 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:59 am

Yeah supercane its got a pretty classic sheared look, you can tell just by looking at the convection alone in fact.
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#136 Postby supercane » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:03 am

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.3N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.3N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z
AND 020300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NAMTHEUN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image


WTPQ21 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 22.4N 119.0E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 23.5N 118.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 030000UTC 24.0N 114.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Image
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#137 Postby supercane » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:21 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 22.5N 118.9E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 23.6N 117.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 030600UTC 24.3N 114.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Image
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#138 Postby Chacor » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:21 am

CWB typhoon warning at 1815 local time (five minutes prior to this posting):

CWB reporting central pressure at 990 hPa, centre near 23 N 119 E, or 80 km southwest of Penghu, Taiwan.

CWB reports movement NW to WNW at 13 km/h. CWB reports MSW (10-minute) as 23 m/s (44 knots), beaufort force 9; gusting to 30 m/s (58 kt).
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#139 Postby Chacor » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:24 am

Taiwan radar from 25 minutes ago (10 UTC):
Image

Southern Taiwan zoom radar:
Image
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#140 Postby Chacor » Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:23 am

Down to 40 kt from JMA.

WTPQ21 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 22.9N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 24.1N 115.7E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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