WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 116.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.3N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.2N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.0N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.7N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.7N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.2N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 281346Z ASCAT IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 WHEN IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS,
UKMO,
GFDN, JGSM, ECMEF, WBAR AND GFS) DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. MODEL ANALYSIS OF
ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH SHOW A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN,
INDICATE INTERACTION WITH A LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS
INTERACTION APPEARS TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF
TS 07W WHICH IS DEPICTED TOO WEAK AND ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH
TO THE TAIWAN LOW. THE UKMO MODEL IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE AND DEPICTS A SHARPER TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF HONG KONG.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE (BUT UNLIKELY) INTERACTION WITH THE TAIWAN LOW.
THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF CONSENSUS. TS 07W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55-60 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
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