ATL: EARL - Recon Discussion

[artist]

use this thread for discussions of recon into Earl.

[CrazyC83]

Based on available data, the intensity is probably 55 kt and the pressure around 986mb (thinking the extrapolated is a bit too low).

[KWT]

Yeah I think pretty much the same Crazy, quite impressive how low the pressure is considering its only about 55kts.

Given the strengthening trend 55kts sounds reasonable though.

[Migle]

Yeah, should be around 65 MPH on the next advisory. Crazy pressure reading though.

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR was 52 kt and the FL of 62 kt would be about 59 kt at the surface (using a 95% reduction for that level, which is purely approximate given that 700mb=90% and they are above that). A blend of the data translates into 55 kt.

[artist]

anyone around that know how to do the recon images for Earl? Chris is working on something and can't post them right now.

[bvigal]

anyone around that know how to do the recon images for Earl? Chris is working on something and can't post them right now.

Do you have Google Earth? I can't do them, I've got to put my feet up for a while... (couch) but you get the url loaded in GE and then can save the image and upload it with imageshack or whatever you use. If you have Google Earth, the kmz file will open it and load.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Re ... _Basin.kmz

[Chris_in_Tampa]

only prob with google pics is those wind flags look impressive but someone could misunderstand, i.e. orange for 63kt wind but it's flight level and surface is 36kt.

I chose to do flight level wind in the recon product since it is measured, rather than estimated by SFMR and SFMR is not always available too. (and it can sometimes be wrong without being suspect) I try to always leave the legend that explains what the wind is when I do an image. The wind barbs are the 30 second sustained readings measured at flight level. (not the gusts at flight level)

[artist]

anyone around that know how to do the recon images for Earl? Chris is working on something and can't post them right now.

Do you have Google Earth? I can't do them, I've got to put my feet up for a while... (couch) but you get the url loaded in GE and then can save the image and upload it with imageshack or whatever you use. If you have Google Earth, the kmz file will open it and load.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Re ... _Basin.kmz

I am hoping I have the right image for this mission! I just posted my first.

[Dave]

HDOB Reconnaissance Decoding Information

052400 1734N 07907W 6964 02970 9877 +071 +071 168098 099 068 012 00

Taking the last line of a set of hdobs above:

1) Time: 05:24:00 GMT
2) Latitude: 17° 34'N (17.57°N)
3) Longitude: 79° 7'W (79.12°W)
4) Static pressure in aeroplane of 696.4 mb (hPa)
5) Geopotential height of 2970 m
6) 30 second surface pressure mean extrapolation of 987.7 mb (hPa)
7) 30 second mean air temperature of +7.1C
8) 30 second mean dew point of +7.1C
9) 30 second mean wind direction of 168 degrees
10) 30 second mean wind of 98 kts
11) Ten second gust of 99 kts
12) Peak ten second Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer [SFMR] surface wind of 68 kts
13) SFMR precipitation rate of 12 mm/hr
14) Suspect data codes are as follows:

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

[Dave]

Approximate reductions:

Flight level---Eyewall--Outer vortex (convection)--Outer vortex (not in convection)

700hPa (3,000m)-0.90--------0.85-------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)-0.80--------0.80-------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)---0.75--------0.75-------------------------0.75
300m----n-------0.80--------0.80-------------------------0.80

[Dave]

Recon schedule for Sunday August 29 & Monday August 30 issued today, Saturday August 28 2010:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 281500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 28 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EARL
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0307A EARL
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 30/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0407A EARL
C. 29/2230Z
D. 17.8N 60.0W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 30/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0507A EARL
C. 30/1045Z
D. 18.7N 62.0W
E. 30/1130Z TO 30/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS:
A. NOAA P-3'S WILL CONTINUE A SERIES OF RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO EARL. TAKEOFFS AT 29/0800Z,
29/2000Z AND 30/0800Z. FLOWN AT 12,000 FT.
B. NASA DC-8 WILL DO RESEARCH INTO EARL DEPARTING
TISX AT 29/1400Z. FLIGHT LVL 32,000 TO 39,000 FT.

[artist]

great info Dave! Thanks! (I just had to wait for the update to come out)
Thanks for taking over tonight.

[Dave]

great info Dave! Thanks! (I just had to wait for the update to come out)
Thanks for taking over tonight.

NP Artist, came in a dinner date, etc...loaded up everything (all data sites) then logged in. I'll be on for at least 1 run tomorrow if not more. Ready to go here.

[artist]

great info Dave! Thanks! (I just had to wait for the update to come out)
Thanks for taking over tonight.

NP Artist, came in a dinner date, etc...loaded up everything (all data sites) then logged in. I'll be on for at least 1 run tomorrow if not more. Ready to go here.

Hope you had a good time. I am sure I'll see ya tomorrow!

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291410
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/13:52:00Z
B. 17 deg 04 min N
058 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1301 m
D. 63 kt
E. 310 deg 91 nm
F. 050 deg 65 kt
G. 307 deg 40 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 18 C / 1520 m
J. 21 C / 1526 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 12:07:30Z
SPIRAL BAND ON RADAR

[LAwxrgal]

Isn't that a hurricane pressure, 985 mb? Or are the surrounding pressures around Earl very low? I know the background pressures tend to be lower in the Caribbean than anywhere else in the basin, that's why I'm asking.

[HURAKAN]

I think RECON will find stronger winds in this pass.

[HURAKAN]

152400 1743N 05740W 8429 01514 0026 +183 +135 138074 079 060 007 00

Far from the core and RECON is already finding very strong winds

[CrazyC83]

How would they handle a flight if they cannot safely takeoff from St. Croix?