ATL: FIONA - Advisories

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.8N 55.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 59.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[supercane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 302042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT43 KNHC 302047
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

EARLIER TODAY...ABOUT 30 DROPSONDES WERE RELEASED DURING A G-V
RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONE OF THE DROPSONDES
MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KT APPROXIMATELY 120 N MI TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT AGREES WITH AN
ASCAT PASS FROM 1208 UTC...WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS
IN THAT SAME AREA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE THIN FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT BANDING FEATURES HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION AND SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DIRECTLY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
FIONA.

SINCE FIONA STILL LACKS SOME ORGANIZATION AND THE WIND FIELD IS
SOMEWHAT LARGE...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
STRUCTURE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH INTENSIFY FIONA TO A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...SO I AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND
HWRF AT THIS POINT. IN FACT...THE GFS DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN
2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE
INTENSITY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WHEN IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/21. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOWS FIONA TURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY FOLLOWING EARL AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS KEEP FIONA AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO THE NORTH IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND EARL. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS A STRONGER FIONA AND SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE THE
CYCLONE CAN RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN LIES A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAKER GFDL
AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.4N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 14.9N 51.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 15.8N 55.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 17.2N 59.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.3N 62.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG


000
FONT13 KNHC 302047
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 3 4 8 9 12
TROP DEPRESSION 33 21 16 19 24 23 25
TROPICAL STORM 64 72 69 61 53 52 47
HURRICANE 2 6 12 16 15 15 16
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 13 11 12 13
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 2 2 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA CONTINUES QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 51.8W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.0W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.8N 59.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.6N 61.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.8N 64.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 29.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 30.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 53.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

FIONA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A FEW CURVED BANDS MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN 0056 UTC ASCAT
PASS AND A 1007 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41040. ONLY A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...SOME DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND
CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IF
CORRECT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND REMAINS NEAR THE
LOW END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0303 UTC
SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALBEIT NOT VERY EASY TO
LOCATE...WAS SITUATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN
285/20. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25 N OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FIONA ON A RATHER
FAST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY HURRICANE EARL...AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE FIONA TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE LEFT-MOST MODEL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
CYCLES...IS NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IN
GENERAL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND
IS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 15.8N 53.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.5N 55.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 17.8N 59.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.6N 61.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 21.8N 64.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 67.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 29.0N 68.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 30.5N 69.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

221
WTNT33 KNHC 311148
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HurrMark]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 311437
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 55.3W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 311437
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 55.3W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT23 KNHC 311436
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 55.3W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 55.3W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 54.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.9N 58.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.7N 61.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.1N 63.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 55.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


000
WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

A 0929 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED CURVED BANDS OF
CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR
THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT...BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FIONA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/21 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
FIONA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FIONA SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FIONA TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA STRENGTHENS...AND NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...IS THAT FIONA COULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 15.9N 55.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 58.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 61.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 21.1N 63.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 65.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.7N 67.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 31.0N 67.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 66.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


000
FONT13 KNHC 311437
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 3 4 6 7 9
TROP DEPRESSION 12 13 17 18 21 20 22
TROPICAL STORM 85 76 68 62 55 53 50
HURRICANE 2 9 12 16 19 20 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 9 13 15 16 16
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 4 3 2
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 14(32)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

BARBUDA 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...AIRCRAFT REACHES THE CENTER OF FIONA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 56.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 312049
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$000
WTNT43 KNHC 312049
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF
FIONA...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE BANDING. THE AIRCRAFT
FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT AND SEVERAL UNFLAGGED
SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21 KT. FIONA IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE VERY SOON AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL
TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE STORM IN 2-3
DAYS AS THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF FIONA BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF EARL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER DISSIPATION COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 16.7N 57.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 17.9N 60.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 20.2N 63.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 66.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 67.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 33.5N 67.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

KNHC 312350
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA MOVING AT A FAST PACE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE METEO FRANCE GUADELOUPE-MARTINIQUE RADAR MOSAIC WAS VERY HELPFUL
IN IDENTIFYING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FIONA. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A
RATHER SHAPELESS BLOB...AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED ALONG AN AXIS
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 35 KT BASED ON THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
RECORDED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF EARL IS EXPECTED
TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS. THE
SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 3...
CAUSING DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE...
HOWEVER...OF MINIMAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE INCREASING
SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
ESTIMATE...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER...290/17 KT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT FIONA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN A STIFF SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER BERMUDA AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.9N 59.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 21.2N 64.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 66.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 60.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS SHOULD PASS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE INTENSITY
AFTER THAT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 60.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 60.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.9N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.3N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 31.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

RECONNAISSANCE DATA...RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE FIONA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY AND IN
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA. THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OBSERVED THUS FAR DURING THE CURRENT MISSION HAS BEEN 52 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 42-KT SURFACE WIND.
THE LOWEST PRESSURES OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 1002 MB AT 0602Z
AND 1004 MB AT 0803Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...WHICH
IS LOWER THAN THE 50-KT ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KT USING RECON AND RADAR FIX POSITIONS.
FIONA APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED ITS RATE OF CLOSURE ON EARL LOCATED
TO ITS NORTHWEST. OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...THE DISTANCE BETWEEN
FIONA AND EARL HAS BEEN DECREASING BY ABOUT 100 NMI EVERY 12
HOURS...AND THE TWO CYCLONES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 750 NMI APART.
RIDDING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS OBVIOUSLY INCREASED...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF FIONA
FROM MORE THAN 20 KT DOWN TO THE CURRENT 12 KT IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE POSSIBLE CAUSE OF THE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA
IS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOWS FROM BOTH CYCLONES CONVERGING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FIONA. THIS RIDGING MAY ALLOW KEEP FIONA FROM
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF EARL LIKE MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING NOGAPS...NOW SLOWS DOWN FIONA BY DAY
3...WITH THE CYCLONE POSSIBLY GETTING TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS RESULT OF THESE NEW SCENARIO...A 96-HOUR POSITION HAS
BEEN ADDED AND DISSIPATION HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL 120 HOURS. IF
FIONA BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE COULD SURVIVE AND END UP MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP OR EVEN
BECOME STATIONARY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..EXCEPT SLOWER AT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR APPEARS TO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE FIONA...WHICH MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SOME AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CIRCULAR IN
APPEARANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WAS NUDGED UPWARD
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS WHICH BRING FIONA UP TO A 60-KT SYSTEM BY 48
HOURS...AND MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL MODEL WHICH MAKES FIONA AN
85-KT HURRICANE AT THAT SAME TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 17.4N 60.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.9N 62.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 21.2N 64.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 66.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.3N 67.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 29.2N 67.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 31.5N 67.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

171
WTNT33 KNHC 011146
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...FIONA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 60.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
AFTER THAT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

KNHC 011749
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...FIONA PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 62.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE ANEGADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY LATE THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF FIONA IS CURRENTLY
PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED FROM THE AIRFORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...CURRENTLY
OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

THOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FIONA LOOKS QUITE DISHEVELED WITH
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION POPPING OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM STILL IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AND SFMR SURFACE
WIND ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 50 KT INDICATE THAT FIONA REMAINS AT 50 KT.
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT FIONA IS RATHER SMALL IN
HORIZONTAL EXTENT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT
LESS THAN 100 NM ON AVERAGE AROUND THE SYSTEM.

CURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS A SPEEDY 17 KT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS BEING ADVECTED ALONG MAINLY BY THE RIDGE
TO ITS NORTHEAST WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION OF STEERING AS WELL BY THE
MUCH LARGER HURRICANE EARL. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TWO DAYS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT...THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH SOME GUIDANCE QUICKLY HAVING FIONA ABSORBED
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF EARL AND SOME KEEPING FIONA AS A DISTINCT
VORTEX AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FRONTAL LOW IN ABOUT FOUR TO FIVE
DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS
THE GFDN HURRICANE MODEL WHICH TAKES FIONA UNREALISTICALLY DUE
WEST...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS...AS USUAL...A DIFFICULT CALL. DESPITE THE
CYCLONE REMAINING OVER QUITE WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE
INTENSITY OF FIONA. A RESEARCH MISSION BY THE NSF GULFSTREAM-V JET
SHOWED UNIDIRECTIONAL 35 KT EASTERLIES ADVECTING OVER THE TOP OF
THE CYCLONE. SUCH UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE FAST FORWARD
SPEED...SHOULD LIMIT ANY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE
FORECAST INTENSITY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER
THAT...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FIONA WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF EARL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT FIONA WILL NO LONGER
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...
ADVISORIES...AND FIONA...WOULD CEASE TO EXIST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 20.2N 62.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.6N 64.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 23.8N 66.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.9N 67.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 27.4N 67.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 66.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 64.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...FIONA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED
FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 65.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FIONA IS
EXPECTED PASS NEAR BERMUDA SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.6N 66.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
INTENSITY OF FIONA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 58 KT AND SFMR WINDS TO 53 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043
THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND A RECENT SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTED A CIRCULATION THAT APPEARED ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FIONA APPEARS QUITE
HOSTILE...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS AT THE LOWER
END OF THE GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE EARL. THIS SOLUTION IS
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DISSIPATION OF FIONA
COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT FIONA ACCELERATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 320/20 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...FIONA IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EARL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF
THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 21.8N 64.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 23.8N 65.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 26.2N 67.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 28.8N 67.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 66.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 35.5N 63.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021437
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...FIONA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021747
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
200 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...FIONA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MICROWAVE DATA THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 022035
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH FIONA DURING THE DAY. THE STORM
CONTINUES THE PATTERN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO OF BURSTS
OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER...THEN SHEARING AWAY. AN
ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40
KT. GIVEN THE WELL-DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...45 KT
SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE
SHEAR BETTER THAN MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE LATEST INTENSITY
GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THE STORM AS QUICKLY AS EARLIER...BUT IS
ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE
MADE TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD.

FIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE AND IS NOW MOVING 335/15. THERE IS
NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING AROUND A
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE STORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...
THEN NORTHEAST AS IT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...BUT SINCE
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES SPEEDING ALONG...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY
ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT FIONA WILL BE CLOSE
TO BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.6N 66.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 27.5N 66.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 29.7N 66.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 31.7N 65.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 33.7N 64.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[cycloneye]

022340
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...FIONA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 66.7W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN