ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

735
WHXX01 KWBC 031433
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1433 UTC FRI SEP 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100903 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  0000   100904  1200   100905  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  18.6W   15.2N  19.8W   15.9N  20.9W   16.7N  21.8W
BAMD    14.3N  18.6W   15.3N  19.9W   15.9N  21.3W   16.4N  22.4W
BAMM    14.3N  18.6W   15.5N  19.6W   16.2N  20.5W   17.0N  21.1W
LBAR    14.3N  18.6W   15.6N  19.9W   16.9N  21.4W   18.2N  23.0W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  1200   100907  1200   100908  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  22.6W   19.9N  24.7W   21.4N  28.2W   22.5N  31.9W
BAMD    17.1N  23.3W   19.2N  24.8W   21.8N  25.8W   23.9N  25.2W
BAMM    18.0N  21.6W   20.8N  22.7W   23.0N  24.2W   24.4N  24.9W
LBAR    19.2N  24.7W   21.8N  27.3W   24.9N  29.1W   27.8N  29.2W
SHIP        48KTS          56KTS          47KTS          36KTS
DSHP        48KTS          56KTS          47KTS          36KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  18.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  17.9W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  16.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[HURAKAN]

[HurrMark]

Looks very fishy...

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks very fishy...

The BAM models have been recurving every system so far on it's first runs, only to have the systems move much further west.

[TheEuropean]

Looks very fishy...

And what's about the cape verde islands...?

[ColinDelia]

The models are disagreeing on whether to develop this one or the wave behind it. The GFS takes this west

[Stormcenter]

I'm starting to wonder if we'll see any of the Cape Verde systems
make it all the way into the GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm starting to wonder if we'll see any of the Cape Verde systems
make it all the way into the GOM.

Once Gaston re-develops, that seems to be our best threat

[Stormcenter]

If it did redevelop and head toward the GOM
condition there may be as hostile as they've been most of
the season. IMO

I'm starting to wonder if we'll see any of the Cape Verde systems
make it all the way into the GOM.

Once Gaston re-develops, that seems to be our best threat