ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion
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ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion
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AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 189N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 958W, 20, 1007, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
Thread at Talking Tropics where the members discussed about this system.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109221&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 189N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 958W, 20, 1007, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
Thread at Talking Tropics where the members discussed about this system.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109221&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
Last edited by Florida1118 on Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
I believe 11E is still there...this looks like a spin off of a sort along the elongated trough axis in the GOM/BOC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Dr. Jeff Masters: Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Looks like plenty of moisture to work with.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Steering layers appears to support a NW movement as well, assuming it can get organized.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Steering layers appears to support a NW movement as well, assuming it can get organized.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
8 AM TWO=Up to 60%
RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Haven't seen floater up either...
Interesting...looks like movement due North and pressure falling
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Interesting...looks like movement due North and pressure falling
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this amateur poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
It looks like some banding features are developing, IMO it already looks better than TD2
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
By my untrained eye, (and I'm a little hungover) any "low" would appear to be moving in a WNW direction.
But the clouds are getting shot off to the north.
But the clouds are getting shot off to the north.
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