ATL: IGOR - Models
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I thought about this for a few minutes and came to the conclusion that the models have been tightly packed and show very little change over the past day or two. There just isn't anything new to talk about. Now if a few model runs were to show a huge push west, I am sure you will see this page light up.
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Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence
Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
Sep 17 15:34:24 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 171931
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1931 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100917 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 60.7W 24.3N 62.4W 25.7N 63.5W 26.9N 64.3W
BAMD 23.4N 60.7W 24.4N 62.3W 26.0N 63.8W 27.6N 65.2W
BAMM 23.4N 60.7W 24.2N 62.4W 25.6N 63.8W 26.7N 64.7W
LBAR 23.4N 60.7W 24.7N 62.1W 26.1N 63.6W 27.4N 65.0W
SHIP 95KTS 98KTS 102KTS 101KTS
DSHP 95KTS 98KTS 102KTS 101KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 64.8W 30.8N 63.0W 33.0N 52.0W 32.7N 43.2W
BAMD 29.1N 66.5W 33.0N 66.1W 39.3N 50.7W 48.3N 34.8W
BAMM 27.9N 65.6W 30.9N 64.9W 34.9N 51.3W 39.1N 33.5W
LBAR 28.8N 65.9W 32.5N 65.9W 36.8N 59.1W 39.3N 43.1W
SHIP 100KTS 87KTS 77KTS 46KTS
DSHP 100KTS 87KTS 77KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 59.1W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.8W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 947MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 210NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 240NM
WHXX01 KWBC 170612
CHGHUR
WHXX01 KWBC 171931
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1931 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100917 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 60.7W 24.3N 62.4W 25.7N 63.5W 26.9N 64.3W
BAMD 23.4N 60.7W 24.4N 62.3W 26.0N 63.8W 27.6N 65.2W
BAMM 23.4N 60.7W 24.2N 62.4W 25.6N 63.8W 26.7N 64.7W
LBAR 23.4N 60.7W 24.7N 62.1W 26.1N 63.6W 27.4N 65.0W
SHIP 95KTS 98KTS 102KTS 101KTS
DSHP 95KTS 98KTS 102KTS 101KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 64.8W 30.8N 63.0W 33.0N 52.0W 32.7N 43.2W
BAMD 29.1N 66.5W 33.0N 66.1W 39.3N 50.7W 48.3N 34.8W
BAMM 27.9N 65.6W 30.9N 64.9W 34.9N 51.3W 39.1N 33.5W
LBAR 28.8N 65.9W 32.5N 65.9W 36.8N 59.1W 39.3N 43.1W
SHIP 100KTS 87KTS 77KTS 46KTS
DSHP 100KTS 87KTS 77KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 59.1W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.8W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 947MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 210NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 240NM
WHXX01 KWBC 170612
CHGHUR
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Any input on at least one model from both Igor and Julia having both storms do a complete re curve and make a circle in the Atlantic? With Igor dropping to a cat 2, it would seem that Igor and Julia are not that far off in power. So could these models be playing with some type of Fujiwara effect?
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Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Any input on at least one model from both Igor and Julia having both storms do a complete re curve and make a circle in the Atlantic? With Igor dropping to a cat 2, it would seem that Igor and Julia are not that far off in power. So could these models be playing with some type of Fujiwara effect?
The Bam models seem to be the only models that are whacked out on both Julia and Igor. I still think its weird how much agreement the models are in concerning both storms. It's also weird how the Bam shows both of them straying off from the models completely. Exactly the type of thing that can happen when you have two hurricanes interacting with eachother.
It's silly to say that these two hurricanes won't have any effect on eachother. I believe it was Brian Norcross on the Weather Channel that said the interaction between them could offset Igor's models. Jeff Masters on wunderground.com even hinted at this a while ago. We'll just have to wait and see.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
6z gfs takes igor about 30 miles west of 0z.....a little more west per 12z and bermuda could escaped the worst to the west...hopefully
6z nam shifted about 50-75 miles west depending on where you look in latitude..(pretty much same as the 18z yesterday)..and brings igor in a bad path just over or to the left of bermuda
6z nam shifted about 50-75 miles west depending on where you look in latitude..(pretty much same as the 18z yesterday)..and brings igor in a bad path just over or to the left of bermuda
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18Z tropical models:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 181843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC SAT SEP 18 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100918 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100918 1800 100919 0600 100919 1800 100920 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.7N 64.0W 27.6N 64.9W 28.6N 65.4W 29.7N 64.8W
BAMD 26.7N 64.0W 28.4N 65.1W 30.2N 66.3W 32.3N 66.7W
BAMM 26.7N 64.0W 27.7N 64.9W 28.8N 65.7W 30.2N 65.6W
LBAR 26.7N 64.0W 28.4N 65.1W 30.5N 65.9W 32.8N 66.0W
SHIP 85KTS 84KTS 87KTS 86KTS
DSHP 85KTS 84KTS 87KTS 86KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800 100923 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.2N 62.6W 33.7N 52.7W 32.0N 43.5W 29.3N 42.9W
BAMD 35.1N 65.3W 40.9N 53.1W 44.8N 40.3W 49.0N 34.3W
BAMM 32.3N 63.9W 36.4N 52.8W 36.1N 39.0W 33.0N 30.6W
LBAR 35.4N 64.7W 41.2N 54.0W 47.3N 42.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 83KTS 71KTS 43KTS 19KTS
DSHP 83KTS 71KTS 43KTS 19KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.7N LONCUR = 64.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 24.8N LONM12 = 62.5W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 23.4N LONM24 = 60.7W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 945MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 410NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 225NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 240N
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