ATL: IGOR - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Canadian has a set up of hitting the SE coast and several Euro ensembles have it hitting the SE coast as well.

When you say SE coast are you referring to Florida to NC range?

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Canadian has a set up of hitting the SE coast and several Euro ensembles have it hitting the SE coast as well.

When you say SE coast are you referring to Florida to NC range?

SFT

Yes

[KWT]

Yeah though the CMC would probably still recurve given the upper trough that is swinging into E.Canada by 144hrs, still it could be a tighter call then nearly all the other models have if it came off for sure.

[fasterdisaster]

If some of these models verify then Bermuda could be absolutely devastated.

[hurricaneCW]

If some of these models verify then Bermuda could be absolutely devastated.

Unfortunately, a large group of models take it right nearby the island. I don't think there are any models east of 60W. Most are right around Bermuda's longitude of 65W, the worst case would be if the storm passes just to the west of Bermuda.

[Aric Dunn]

Has anyone actually looked at the 12Z Euro VS the 00z. the ridge quite a bit stronger this run at 120-144hours and the trough instead of heading to eastern canada lifts NE over hudson bay. similar to the CMC.

open both links in seperate tabs and toggle between them.. you can see the trough lift out instead of digging and the ridge building north of IGor
12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[SouthFLTropics]

Has anyone actually looked at the 12Z Euro VS the 00z. the ridge quite a bit stronger this run at 120-144hours and the trough instead of heading to eastern canada lifts NE over hudson bay. similar to the CMC.

open both links in seperate tabs and toggle between them.. you can see the trough lift out instead of digging and the ridge building north of IGor
12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

00z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

If that change were to verifiy it could mean the difference between a recurve and a substantial EC strike...

SFT

[dixiebreeze]

At times very powerful storms can create their own environment and often the track their on carries that momentum and hard turns are less likely...

Gilbert comes to mind as an example.

[invest man]

Does the models that show igor being picked up and out by a trough being picked up by the front that is off the east coast now or is it another trough and if so where is that trough at now? IM

[artist]

At times very powerful storms can create their own environment and often the track their on carries that momentum and hard turns are less likely...

that is my fear.

[ericinmia]

At times very powerful storms can create their own environment and often the track their on carries that momentum and hard turns are less likely...

Gilbert comes to mind as an example.

In pure physics though, a hurricane can't 'carry momentum'. Instead it will still only change direction based on flow. If there is a weak trough, it will slowly respond, if it is a strong trough like Wilma or moreso Charley were influenced by... then it would turn more sharply. Same way that it will continue west under a strong or wnw under a weak high pressure, at it's steering heights.

It's hard to think of a good analogy, but try not too think of the storm as having momentum... but moreso just going with the prevailing flow. (whatever that transpires to be... lol)
Sorry if my explanation stunk, I couldn't think of how to write it out without going into technical definitions. (bad headache).
-Eric

[sponger]

The few models showing stronger riding filling in makes all of us east coasters nervous. We wont know until mid week at least so its going to be a long couple of days. We have been lucky so far, can we win again???

[Blown Away]

Canadian has a set up of hitting the SE coast and several Euro ensembles have it hitting the SE coast as well.

I see nothing in the NHC track that would suggest they are considering the EURO ensembles.

[Stephanie]

Canadian has a set up of hitting the SE coast and several Euro ensembles have it hitting the SE coast as well.

Do you have a link to the Canadian Models?

[sponger]

Canadian has a set up of hitting the SE coast and several Euro ensembles have it hitting the SE coast as well.

I see nothing in the NHC track that would suggest they are considering the EURO ensembles.

The NHC will wait for more runs. No reason to start commiting this early. That's why we come here for early info. Sometimes it pans out sometimes it does not.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

587
WHXX01 KWBC 130033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100913 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100913  0000   100913  1200   100914  0000   100914  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  47.3W   18.2N  49.6W   18.5N  51.7W   18.9N  53.4W
BAMD    17.7N  47.3W   18.0N  49.2W   18.6N  50.9W   19.5N  52.3W
BAMM    17.7N  47.3W   18.0N  49.4W   18.5N  51.1W   19.2N  52.6W
LBAR    17.7N  47.3W   18.2N  49.3W   18.8N  51.2W   19.6N  53.4W
SHIP       130KTS         138KTS         135KTS         134KTS
DSHP       130KTS         138KTS         135KTS         134KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100915  0000   100916  0000   100917  0000   100918  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.6N  54.7W   21.9N  57.1W   24.2N  60.2W   26.8N  62.6W
BAMD    20.7N  53.8W   22.9N  57.4W   25.3N  60.6W   27.2N  64.5W
BAMM    20.2N  54.0W   22.5N  57.0W   24.8N  60.0W   27.2N  63.0W
LBAR    20.4N  55.4W   22.3N  59.4W   25.2N  62.9W   28.3N  66.2W
SHIP       131KTS         127KTS         117KTS         107KTS
DSHP       131KTS         127KTS         117KTS         107KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.7N LONCUR =  47.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  17.7N LONM12 =  44.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  41.9W
WNDCUR =  130KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   85KT
CENPRS =  935MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  270NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  140NM RD34SE =  110NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 130NM


[Nimbus]

Igor is rolling along rather slowly still south of 20N. Strong hurricanes do tend to pump up an anticyclone ridge over themselves that changes the steering environment. That can throw the models off considerably, especially with slow moving storms. I'd like to see Igor start gaining some latitude soon.

[Steve H.]

Extremely powerful storms, such as Gilbert can create their own environment, mostly by pumping up the ridges ahead of them and over them, but they generally are still the victims of the rivers of air at the particular heights that are steering them. Igor IMO has always had the chance of coming further west than the models have been showing. The BAMs models are good mostly in the deep tropics, and they have showed the current WSW motion that IGOR has been taking. The Medium BAM is the best of the bunch as far as I'm concerned. IGOR is definitely heading at 265 at the moment. We'll see how long this lasts.

[hurricaneCW]

Models seem very confident on a 60-65W recurve, only threat will be Bermuda unless things change dramatically.

[plasticup]

If some of these models verify then Bermuda could be absolutely devastated.

If anywhere in the world can handle direct hit from a Category 4 storm, it is Bermuda.