ATL: KARL - Models

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#321 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:30 am

Models jumping onboard now for this area to develop, even if it may not really get going till the BoC..set-up looks good for development there.
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#322 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:07 am

06z models are very interesting, the GFS strengthens this one quite alot just before landfall and the GFDL makes this into a decent hurricane in the BoC...which given what the other models show may not be a bad idea...though no doubt its too agressive before Yucatan IMO.
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#323 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:11 am

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

471
WHXX01 KWBC 131251
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100913 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100913  1200   100914  0000   100914  1200   100915  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  79.3W   17.2N  81.6W   17.8N  83.9W
BAMD    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  79.6W   17.3N  82.0W   17.8N  84.6W
BAMM    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  79.5W   17.3N  81.9W   17.9N  84.3W
LBAR    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  80.1W   17.7N  83.0W   18.7N  85.8W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          56KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100915  1200   100916  1200   100917  1200   100918  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  86.3W   19.9N  90.4W   21.1N  93.7W   21.4N  97.1W
BAMD    18.2N  87.2W   19.1N  91.8W   19.0N  95.2W   18.3N  98.8W
BAMM    18.5N  86.8W   19.9N  91.1W   20.7N  94.5W   20.6N  97.8W
LBAR    19.8N  88.4W   22.4N  92.6W   24.4N  94.3W   25.8N  95.1W
SHIP        71KTS          88KTS          99KTS         101KTS
DSHP        71KTS          45KTS          55KTS          45KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR =  77.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  73.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  15.7N LONM24 =  70.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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#324 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:27 am

Image

GFDL 06z
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#325 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:21 am

GFS really blows this up in the BoC and the system slows right down, could get quite a decent system from this if it were to get going before the Yucatan...maybe like Alex strength??
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#326 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:01 pm

12Z HWRF and GFDL are significantly stronger with 92L in the BoC.
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#327 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:04 pm

:uarrow: Here they are in animation.

12z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

12z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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#328 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:05 pm

Remember how quickly the systems have spun up in the BOC and surrounding area, if Hermine had another 12 hours over water, she would of come ashore as a Cat 1 at least. Alex exploded as well.
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#329 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:56 pm

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 131849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100913 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100913  1800   100914  0600   100914  1800   100915  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  78.8W   16.3N  80.7W   16.9N  82.7W   17.4N  84.7W
BAMD    15.9N  78.8W   16.5N  81.1W   17.1N  83.4W   17.6N  85.8W
BAMM    15.9N  78.8W   16.4N  80.9W   17.0N  83.0W   17.7N  85.2W
LBAR    15.9N  78.8W   16.2N  81.6W   17.1N  84.6W   18.0N  87.6W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          45KTS          58KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          45KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100915  1800   100916  1800   100917  1800   100918  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.5N  86.8W   20.9N  90.2W   22.9N  93.4W   23.5N  97.7W
BAMD    18.2N  88.2W   19.4N  92.2W   20.0N  94.6W   20.3N  97.4W
BAMM    18.6N  87.3W   20.7N  91.2W   22.6N  94.0W   23.2N  97.7W
LBAR    19.2N  90.5W   22.0N  94.6W   24.2N  96.1W   22.8N  97.4W
SHIP        71KTS          88KTS          98KTS          93KTS
DSHP        71KTS          43KTS          52KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.9N LONCUR =  78.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  75.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  72.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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#330 Postby barometerJane61 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:12 pm

So far it looks like the US will be spared a direct hit from a hurricane this season.All of them are either recurving or crashing into Mexico
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#331 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:14 pm

I have a bit of a silly question. On the model pics, what are all the very thin gray lines supposed to represent? Other models? Past storms forming in the same area at the same time and their path? Always wondered...
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#332 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:15 pm

im pretty sure those are the gfs ensembles
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#333 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:18 pm

:uarrow: That they are.
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#334 Postby cpdaman » Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:20 pm

looks like a pretty straight forward track ...with development chances low until the BOC.....i can't believe this has the same amount of page's as IGOR's model thread....really?!
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#335 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:16 pm

The tract is going to depend alot on where and if it forms in the first place, a further south formation and it may not even make the BoC...further north and you'll get something of similar strength as Alex at landfall IMO...
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#336 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:35 pm

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

094
WHXX01 KWBC 140032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100914 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100914  0000   100914  1200   100915  0000   100915  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  79.8W   16.4N  81.5W   17.1N  83.3W   17.9N  85.4W
BAMD    16.0N  79.8W   16.5N  82.1W   17.1N  84.5W   17.6N  86.9W
BAMM    16.0N  79.8W   16.5N  81.8W   17.1N  83.9W   17.9N  86.1W
LBAR    16.0N  79.8W   16.5N  82.6W   17.5N  85.5W   18.5N  88.5W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100916  0000   100917  0000   100918  0000   100919  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  87.2W   20.7N  90.8W   21.6N  94.1W   21.9N  98.4W
BAMD    18.2N  89.2W   18.8N  93.2W   18.3N  96.3W   18.2N 100.0W
BAMM    18.8N  88.2W   20.2N  92.0W   20.7N  95.2W   20.8N  99.1W
LBAR    19.9N  91.1W   22.8N  94.7W   24.8N  96.4W   25.6N  98.1W
SHIP        60KTS          78KTS          89KTS          89KTS
DSHP        46KTS          42KTS          53KTS          34KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  79.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  77.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  73.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#337 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:40 pm

IMHO I think that this is being initialized too far to the south. It looks like the main vorticity (at both 500 and 850 mb) is much nearer the western edge of Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#338 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:41 pm

:uarrow:
agreed
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#339 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:20 pm

Image

GFS
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models

#340 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:22 pm

those BAMMS in the graphic are 18z...not that it matters much...

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 0&title=92
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