WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[dexterlabio]

at 16.1N 137.0E.

[Infdidoll]

Where is everyone? Wake up!

WTPN21 PGTW 140630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 130.8E TO 20.4N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 140530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3N 130.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N
132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132313Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A OOO5Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150630Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Nothing from JMA at 6z, curiously.

[windysocks]

This looks like one of those that will curve past Taiwan, 'sparing' Hong Kong yet again.

[Typhoon10]

Doll, I think its because so many Invests have been popping up then disappearing thus we lost track!

[dexterlabio]

Nothing on JMA, but they only have these:

[Infdidoll]

Doll, I think its because so many Invests have been popping up then disappearing thus we lost track!

I've been getting confused, too! Seems like a new invest popping up and dying every day for the last few months.

I'm a little surprised still nothing from JMA. It doesn't look terrible.

[StormingB81]

Posted this under the wrong one but hey infindoll this looks interesting doesn;t it.

[img][/img]

[Infdidoll]

Another weather buddy seems to think we could possibly expect a tropical storm out of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJNdHZ0-TUA

[StormingB81]

My wife and kids hopefully will get on the patriot express to get back out here so hopefully the storm doesnt delay that flight.

[Infdidoll]

Aww, I hope not! Tough to be separated so I'm sure you can't wait to see them. I wonder what timeline we're looking at here. I'll check it out tomorrow but need to get to bed.

[StormingB81]

Well Infidoll I guess they THINK it will stay weak..guess we will see....

[dexterlabio]

Wait until this disturbance has become a TD, then we will have a better view on its future track, intensity, etc...

[Chacor]

JMA 12Z
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 130E WEST 10 KT.

[senorpepr]

FWIW, RAMMB has 94W listed also as 12W; expecting an upgrade from JTWC at next advisory cycle.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

[StormingB81]

By the way if it gets named..the next name on the list is..Fanapi, Which means Small atoll islands, sandy islands

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 19.2N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 20.2N 125.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140621Z SEP 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.5N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.8N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.5N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 128.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 141255Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE
TIGHT LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (MAXIMUM OF 30 KNOTS) ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN IT SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W SHOULD THEN TAKE A SHARP TURN
NORTHEASTWARD, SOUTH OF OKINAWA AROUND TAU 72 AND BEGIN TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION THAT
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED OUTFLOW, TD 12W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AS TD 12W
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INCREASE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF
THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS
AND GFS MODELS, WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24
AND 48. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
BUILD IN AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 140630Z SEP
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140630) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//



TXPN27 KNES 142130
SIMWIR
A. 12W (NONAME)
B. 14/2032Z
C. 19.9N
D. 129.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON .4 BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
14/1531Z 19.1N 129.5E TMI
...LIDDICK
=

[Infdidoll]

Whoa! This one has blown up FAST. Passively checked Weather Underground, this morning, more wondering if it was going to rain, today and I see them forecasting a typhoon for us this weekend. This one is gaining steam rapidly. Could be a real threat to Japan in the coming days...Edited to add China and possibly Korea, again, seeing the track models. Interesting track. Looks like Taiwan and Luzon are no longer the typhoon magnets. It's shifted to Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

ok at 19/18Z that is like 3am Monday Morning right? I hope so as long as the flight comes in and she isn't delayed!

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 19.9N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 20.7N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.5N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.4N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 128.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 142138Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS CURVED LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS OF 27 TO 30
KNOTS AT 142157Z AND 142209Z RESPECTIVELY. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. AROUND TAU 36, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND TURN NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W IS
THEN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD, SOUTH OF OKINAWA, AND BEGIN
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE
EXTENSION THAT BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS TD 12W CONTINUES TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INTO THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.
C. BY TAU 96, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS BACK IN. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERS IN THE TIMING OF
BOTH TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS, GFS, AND JGSM MODELS, WHICH TURN THE
SYSTEM MORE SLOWLY AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF OKINAWA. HOWEVER,
GFDN PULLS TD 12W FASTER NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
OKINAWA AS IT ANALYSES THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND THEN BUILD BACK IN
FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBLE SCENARIO.//



TXPN27 KNES 150307
SIMWIR
A. 12W (NONAME)
B. 15/0232Z
C. 20.1N
D. 128.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON .6 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
14/2138Z 19.7N 128.7E WINDSAT
14/2221Z 19.9N 128.6E AMSU
14/2254Z 19.9N 128.6E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
=