ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[tampastorm]

Quick question, I have not been on for a couple of days and now it seems My area (Tampa) is looking much better next week. Can someone explain what exactly happened to lead to this? Thanks

[Frank2]

Matthew's convection is beginning to move into the Pacific (VIS loop):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Quick question, I have not been on for a couple of days and now it seems My area (Tampa) is looking much better next week. Can someone explain what exactly happened to lead to this? Thanks

tampastorm, well there are 2 schools of thought on this. Either #1 that Florida is going to be impacted on what's left of Matthew turning northeast, or #2 that a new storm Nicole will spin up in the NW Carib and head to Florida. Either way, there's a high chance that Florida will be impacted by a tropical system within the next 7 to 10 days. We just don't know the strength yet.

[Sanibel]

Interesting that the LLC seems to have decoupled and followed the orginal NHC track but the main CDO has been decapitated to the WSW and is pulling away making it look like it is moving across Central America at a fast rate. A quick look at Matthew would say decapitation and dissipation, however this is a weird one so I'll hold my guesses.

[tampastorm]

Quick question, I have not been on for a couple of days and now it seems My area (Tampa) is looking much better next week. Can someone explain what exactly happened to lead to this? Thanks

tampastorm, well there are 2 schools of thought on this. Either #1 that Florida is going to be impacted on what's left of Matthew turning northeast, or #2 that a new storm Nicole will spin up in the NW Carib and head to Florida. Either way, there's a high chance that Florida will be impacted by a tropical system within the next 7 to 10 days. We just don't know the strength yet.

Ok thanks, so be on the lookout for Nicole to form within the next few days possibly. Thanks!

[Steve H.]

Just read this, have a beer and chill for a few days :

WHILE THE ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND EITHER COULD
BE USED AFTER DAY 5 OVER CONUS THE HPC PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS THE
00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN BASED ON ITS HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL LOW
FORMATION IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ITS SLOWER AND MORE WWD LIFT
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CMC HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FAST
WITH ITS EJECTION INTO FL DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH THE 00Z ECMWF PICKING
IT UP BY DAY 5 AND RUNNING IT UP OFF THE ERN SEABOARD DAY 7 SAT.
UKMET HOLDS THE CIRCULATION BACK NEAR YUCATAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
GFS OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES BEFORE IT IS
PICKED UP BY LATE SATURDAY AND EJECTED NEWD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ENS MEANS KEEP THE CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ERN GLFMEX NEAR THE
WRN FL COAST BY DAY 7. WHILE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS IS A BETTER
MATCH TOWARDS THE LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST LOCATION AND THE
TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO EJECT CARIBBEAN/LOWER GLFMEX SYSTEMS TOO
FAST.

06Z/12Z GFS RUNS HANDLING THE WRN CARIBBEAN SYSTEM HAVE A LARGE
SPREAD IN TRACK AND TIMING YIELDING A LOW CONFIDENCE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY FORECAST. LATEST 12Z CMC MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN WHILE THE UKMET CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION NEAR
YUCATAN. THIS CONTINUED WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP THE HPC
SOLUTION NEAR THE SLOWER ECMWF AND GFS ENS MEANS. AGAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS ENS MEANS KEEP IN MUCH MORE OF TEH ATLC
SUBTROICAL RIDGE AND ALSO HOLD BACK THE ERN CONUS TROF AXIS WWD OF
OP MODELS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLUTIONS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHICH WOULD KEEP A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION TO MUCH OF ERN CONUS MID
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A PREFERRED SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME WITH AGAIN A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST APPROACH BEING USED
FOR NOW WITH NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR ERN CONUS TO COOLER AND VERY WET WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A LINGERING TROF AND COASTAL
FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN SEABOARD LATE WEEK. WELL ABOVE AVG
TEMPS OVER WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED LOCATIONS
ESPECIALY IN THE ROCKIES HAVING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS. A HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND THREAT FOR CUBA AND FLORIDA MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING UPON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WRN
CARIBBEAN LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEE TPC/HPC
DISCUSSIONS AND POTENTIAL FUTURE ADVISORIES.
ROSENSTEIN

[vbhoutex]

I think Aric may have hit this one on the head. IMO, whatever happens if another system forms will not be a new system but form from what now appears to be turning into a broad low over the Yucatan and areas W and SW. The trough may be starting to force the apparent decoupling that appears to be happening at this point even though it does not appear to be picking up what is left of Matthew yet. Even if the complete decoupling takes place and one part moves W and the other to the E, ENE, N, or NE I believe it would still be called Matthew if it reforms since it is still part of what was Matthew.
I am so glad I am not a forecaster that has to do forecasts for this system. I think I might have already snatched my head bald. In fact one forecaster I have been talking to, who shall remain nameless, told me "I am clueless as to what Matthew will eventually do." With that I have to say I pretty much agree, but I have presented my 'stab in the dark" as to what may happen.

[HURAKAN]

If it's half of Matthew, will it be called Matt? or Hew?

LOL

[Frank P]

Sure looks to my untrained eyes that a lot of Matts convection its making a good run at the BOC (viewing the IR sat loops) ... decoupled or not, convection if going to the BOC.. now what happens, if anything, when it gets there remains to be seen, but all year the BOC has been cranking things up.. maybe we could get an Opal type scenario... who knows... all I know is that it has not rained in my yard for weeks..

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: If it's half of Matthew, will it be called Matt? or Hew?

LOL

Couldn't be Hew. We have already had the H storm!!LOL!

[hurricaneCW]

It would be Matole.

[otowntiger]

It would be Matole.

I like Nicthew better.

[Houstonia]

Apologies if this has already been posted. Jeff Masters seems to think the entire GOM needs to keep an eye on things:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1633

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

[MGC]

I think the low will eventually reach the BOC and/or GOM and regenerate. I don't see the mid level circulation decoupling...as there is little shear over the system that would cause that.. I am with Frank on this one, a Opal type situation without the intensity of Opal......MGC

[HurricaneStriker]

Those GFS ensemble models aren't as uncertain as before; they sort of agree with each other.

[Ptarmigan]

It would be Matole.

Now, that's funny!

[ConvergenceZone]

Aha, so we were right. Based upon that model plot
It IS what's left of Matthew that the models are seeing hitting the gulf states, and not some other system forming in the NW Carib like others were saying...


I would also add that if this IS the case. The system may get quite strong by the time it hits Florida(or wherever it decides to go). Lots of warm water ahead of it...

[Typhoon_Willie]

What happens if half developes in the Gom and half developes in the Caribbean? Matthew would have a split personality! he he

[Tstormwatcher]

What happens if half developes in the Gom and half developes in the Caribbean? Matthew would have a split personality! he he

LOL, now thats funny.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks tstormwatcher! I think that Matt may need to go to his psychiatrist because he would be suffering from split personalities... Or maybe he would be jealous of his sister Nicole. He he.