ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

433
WHXX01 KWBC 211307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100921 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100921  1200   100922  0000   100922  1200   100923  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  62.8W   12.7N  65.1W   13.0N  67.7W   13.5N  70.4W
BAMD    12.2N  62.8W   12.5N  64.8W   12.7N  67.1W   12.9N  69.4W
BAMM    12.2N  62.8W   12.5N  64.9W   12.9N  67.4W   13.2N  69.8W
LBAR    12.2N  62.8W   12.8N  65.2W   13.4N  67.7W   13.8N  70.4W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          49KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100923  1200   100924  1200   100925  1200   100926  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  73.3W   14.4N  78.8W   15.7N  84.1W   17.0N  87.8W
BAMD    13.0N  71.9W   13.6N  77.1W   15.3N  82.3W   17.6N  86.5W
BAMM    13.5N  72.5W   14.3N  78.0W   15.8N  83.7W   17.3N  88.2W
LBAR    14.2N  73.5W   14.9N  80.0W   13.9N  85.6W   15.0N  87.8W
SHIP        66KTS          92KTS         109KTS         120KTS
DSHP        66KTS          92KTS         109KTS         120KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  62.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  60.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  58.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

Euro ensemble from last night

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS

[ColinDelia]

0z CMC

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS ensemble

[SouthFLTropics]

WOW...Ships is very BULLISH!!!...Up to 120 knots...

SFT

[Aquawind]

Bam models sure take a hard left at the end..we are in the deep tropics sooo maybe they are seeing more ridging and thus more westward motion in general at the end of the forecast...clearly they are showing more west now..as usual strength will be a factor and we need at least a depression first..

[tolakram]

The euro has it going north of west ... and the euro bias tends to be south and west, so that's something to be extremely concerned about. Right now I doubt this takes a GFS route and stays south. Hopefully something will change.

[HURAKAN]

[MWatkins]

Bam models sure take a hard left at the end..we are in the deep tropics sooo maybe they are seeing more ridging and thus more westward motion in general at the end of the forecast...clearly they are showing more west now..as usual strength will be a factor and we need at least a depression first..

Hey Paul!

They are running the models out to 7 days internally as a test for 7 day forecast points. The SW curve in the BAM guidance was happening with Igor and some other storms at days 6 and 7...there must be some sort of limitation of the baratropic models after day 5 that is causing that. My guess is they will need to rewrite/modify these after the season to address this issue.

In any case, the same type of trough that pulled everything out of the central Atlantic is going to set up over the central/eastern US heading into next weekend. Whatever develops down there is going to get pulled out.

As a side note, never seen a 20 knot initialization of SHIPS turn into a 120 knot hurricane by day 5. But if it's going to happen, it would be in this part of the basin, especially this year.

Could be a LONG weekend and an anxious week next week.

MW

[ronjon]

Bam models sure take a hard left at the end..we are in the deep tropics sooo maybe they are seeing more ridging and thus more westward motion in general at the end of the forecast...clearly they are showing more west now..as usual strength will be a factor and we need at least a depression first..

Shouldn't really place much emphasis on the BAM suite of tropical models with evolving upper level troughs - they're not as accurate as the global models in responding to these changes.

[MWatkins]

The euro has it going north of west ... and the euro bias tends to be south and west, so that's something to be extremely concerned about. Right now I doubt this takes a GFS route and stays south. Hopefully something will change.

Good point. Also, looking at the ensemble graphic, the operational GFS is further south/west than any of the ensemble members. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but there's probably a left bias in the operational model....it should correct slightly north/west over the next few runs.

MW

[Macrocane]

120 kt This could be the biggest threat of the season (so far) for the Caribbean coast of Central America, I will be watching very carefully this system.

[barometerJane61]

if this one pulls anymore north,it will go thru the goal posts and straight into the GOM

[btangy]

There are two research missions going on right now, and their data will be ingested into the 00Z global models tonight. But, this looks very much reminiscent of Karl. GFS was pegging development pretty early on, so kudos to it if it verifies.

[Aquawind]

Oh great Mike.. Thanks Alot! LOL I know the bam are usual bunk but was hoping..lol Nice to hear from you.. Yeah that SHIPS 120 kt is crazy.. We be watching alright..
Please keep us updated on your thoughts as this looks to be the first serious US landfall of the season..

[boca]

Oh great Mike.. Thanks Alot! LOL I know the bam are usual bunk but was hoping..lol Nice to hear from you.. Yeah that SHIPS 120 kt is crazy.. We be watching alright..
Please keep us updated on your thoughts as this looks to be the first serious US landfall of the season..

Maybe this one too will stay below us and continue west.

[Aquawind]

Maybe this one too will stay below us and continue west.

Maybe.. the 120kts and other models makes me think it will lift north though..

[boca]

Maybe this one too will stay below us and continue west.

Maybe.. the 120kts and other models makes me think it will lift north though..

It depends on how fast the trough moves east and how deep it becomes once its gets established along the Central/Eastern US, its all timing as ususual.