ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[KWT]

Thats what the GFS ensembles want to occur but this is looking like exactly following the ECM track and ending up going deep into CA and effectivly dying inland whilst the broad Monsoonal Gyre kicks in and another region forms somewhere east of the Yucatan.

Its quite a difficult forecast and it all depends on whether it can get itself back over water in time, I personally wouldn't rule out any solution right now!

[gatorcane]

Gfs and euro continue to bring this into south Florida or sw Florida. Has anybody noticed?

[SFLcane]

Gfs and euro continue to bring this into south Florida or sw Florida. Has anybody noticed?

Indeed gatorcane the 06z GFS now takes the storm through the yucatan channel steadily intensifying then turns it northeastward towards naples across SFL like wilma. EURO much weather but close to SFL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Gfs and euro continue to bring this into south Florida or sw Florida. Has anybody noticed?

No.................................LOL

00z GFS pretty much put FL in the dark for a month...

[wxman57]

Two model camps. One includes NOGAPS and NAM takes it west for 4-5 days into southern Mexico or Guatemala. The other camp includes the rest of the global dynamic models (CMC, GFS, Euro) and the consensus models, taking it to Belize then N-NNE up the east coast of the Yucatan and/or out over the water, heading for western Cuba.

NHC can't decide so their track is right in the middle, guaranteeing to be wrong, but less wrong than if they chose one of the two possibilities and guessed wrong. I favor the latter group that takes it into the NW Caribbean toward western Cuba and eventually south Florida.

[gatorcane]

Two model camps. One includes NOGAPS and NAM takes it west for 4-5 days into southern Mexico or Guatemala. The other camp includes the rest of the global dynamic models (CMC, GFS, Euro) and the consensus models, taking it to Belize then N-NNE up the east coast of the Yucatan and/or out over the water, heading for western Cuba.

NHC can't decide so their track is right in the middle, guaranteeing to be wrong, but less wrong than if they chose one of the two possibilities and guessed wrong. I favor the latter group that takes it into the NW Caribbean toward western Cuba and eventually south Florida.

I agree that South Florida could be a target down the line and I am leaning more towards the globals as well.

We'll have to wait and see...

[KWT]

Funny you should say that wxman57 because the 06z GFS has no sign of matthew's Vort at 850hpa and thus I'd imagine that is NOT Matthew we see but a brand spanking new system...the ECM does exactly the same thing.

So those models agree with NAM/Nogaps in taking it deep into CA but instead they just form a brand new system from the Monsoonal Gyre and heads N/NNE.

Its a messy set-up though and who knows how its going to evolve to be honest, the models will flip a few times yet on how it develops!

[xironman]

Given a choice between the NOGAPS and NAM vs. the rest of the model suite, I'll put my money on the rest!

[boca]

I keep on looking east of Matthew to see whats going to spark this new system and I come up empty.Does anyone have insight on this.

[HURAKAN]

I keep on looking east of Matthew to see whats going to spark this new system and I come up empty.Does anyone have insight on this.

According to GFS, it comes from the EPAC.

Thread for that! = viewtopic.php?f=61&p=2074401#p2074401

[Evil Jeremy]

06Z GFDL ends with Matthew inching ENE in days 4-5, off of the Eastern Yucatan coast. Cant tell from the SFWMD graphic if it ever moves inland.

06Z HWRF has Matt brushing the Yucatan before looping out into the Caribbean again, but as a very weak system.

[jlauderdal]

Two model camps. One includes NOGAPS and NAM takes it west for 4-5 days into southern Mexico or Guatemala. The other camp includes the rest of the global dynamic models (CMC, GFS, Euro) and the consensus models, taking it to Belize then N-NNE up the east coast of the Yucatan and/or out over the water, heading for western Cuba.

NHC can't decide so their track is right in the middle, guaranteeing to be wrong, but less wrong than if they chose one of the two possibilities and guessed wrong. I favor the latter group that takes it into the NW Caribbean toward western Cuba and eventually south Florida.

good job wxman, picking a track and going with it, thats the spirit, wont fault NHC for going down the middle thats for sure

[shortwave]

Two model camps. One includes NOGAPS and NAM takes it west for 4-5 days into southern Mexico or Guatemala. The other camp includes the rest of the global dynamic models (CMC, GFS, Euro) and the consensus models, taking it to Belize then N-NNE up the east coast of the Yucatan and/or out over the water, heading for western Cuba.

NHC can't decide so their track is right in the middle, guaranteeing to be wrong, but less wrong than if they chose one of the two possibilities and guessed wrong. I favor the latter group that takes it into the NW Caribbean toward western Cuba and eventually south Florida.

why do you favor the NW caribbean

[ronjon]

Two model camps. One includes NOGAPS and NAM takes it west for 4-5 days into southern Mexico or Guatemala. The other camp includes the rest of the global dynamic models (CMC, GFS, Euro) and the consensus models, taking it to Belize then N-NNE up the east coast of the Yucatan and/or out over the water, heading for western Cuba.

NHC can't decide so their track is right in the middle, guaranteeing to be wrong, but less wrong than if they chose one of the two possibilities and guessed wrong. I favor the latter group that takes it into the NW Caribbean toward western Cuba and eventually south Florida.

Strike NAM from the western model group with the 06Z run. Wxman57, you could have added the BAM tropical models to the western group but I know what you think of them with dynamic upper level conditions.

[wxman57]

12Z models shifted 30-40 miles south on the initial track, taking Matthew well inland across Nicaragua/Honduras and only briefly over water before reaching Belize. Then inland to west of Belize followed by a turn NE as the front picks it up.

[Evil Jeremy]

12Z models shifted 30-40 miles south on the initial track, taking Matthew well inland across Nicaragua/Honduras and only briefly over water before reaching Belize. Then inland to west of Belize followed by a turn NE as the front picks it up.

I was always confused by this, so please clear this up for me: What 12z models are you referring to? Do you refer to the 06z GFS, GFDL, HWRF models, as well as others that run during that time, as the 12zs?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

047
WHXX01 KWBC 241240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW (AL152010) 20100924 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100924  1200   100925  0000   100925  1200   100926  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  81.3W   14.9N  83.4W   15.6N  85.6W   16.4N  87.7W
BAMD    14.3N  81.3W   14.7N  84.2W   15.1N  86.9W   15.7N  89.2W
BAMM    14.3N  81.3W   14.9N  83.8W   15.6N  86.3W   16.5N  88.6W
LBAR    14.3N  81.3W   14.9N  84.5W   15.7N  87.9W   16.5N  90.9W
SHIP        45KTS          54KTS          66KTS          77KTS
DSHP        45KTS          42KTS          33KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100926  1200   100927  1200   100928  1200   100929  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  89.6W   18.1N  92.0W   17.0N  93.1W   14.6N  93.8W
BAMD    16.4N  90.7W   17.4N  91.9W   16.4N  92.4W   13.5N  93.2W
BAMM    17.2N  90.4W   18.1N  92.1W   16.9N  92.6W   13.7N  92.1W
LBAR    17.6N  93.3W   20.3N  95.6W   22.6N  95.5W   24.5N  94.2W
SHIP        89KTS         106KTS         110KTS         105KTS
DSHP        40KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  81.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  77.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  13.6N LONM24 =  74.8W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM
 
$$
NNNN

[Bocadude85]

12Z models shifted 30-40 miles south on the initial track, taking Matthew well inland across Nicaragua/Honduras and only briefly over water before reaching Belize. Then inland to west of Belize followed by a turn NE as the front picks it up.

So the chances of Matthew dissipating inland and never reaching Florida are increasing?

[ROCK]

Code: Select all

047
WHXX01 KWBC 241240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW (AL152010) 20100924 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100924  1200   100925  0000   100925  1200   100926  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  81.3W   14.9N  83.4W   15.6N  85.6W   16.4N  87.7W
BAMD    14.3N  81.3W   14.7N  84.2W   15.1N  86.9W   15.7N  89.2W
BAMM    14.3N  81.3W   14.9N  83.8W   15.6N  86.3W   16.5N  88.6W
LBAR    14.3N  81.3W   14.9N  84.5W   15.7N  87.9W   16.5N  90.9W
SHIP        45KTS          54KTS          66KTS          77KTS
DSHP        45KTS          42KTS          33KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100926  1200   100927  1200   100928  1200   100929  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  89.6W   18.1N  92.0W   17.0N  93.1W   14.6N  93.8W
BAMD    16.4N  90.7W   17.4N  91.9W   16.4N  92.4W   13.5N  93.2W
BAMM    17.2N  90.4W   18.1N  92.1W   16.9N  92.6W   13.7N  92.1W
LBAR    17.6N  93.3W   20.3N  95.6W   22.6N  95.5W   24.5N  94.2W
SHIP        89KTS         106KTS         110KTS         105KTS
DSHP        40KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  81.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  77.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  13.6N LONM24 =  74.8W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM
 
$$
NNNN

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_15.gif

I have got one GFS ensemble member getting real close to Texas....I wonder if that is a trend?

[mobilebay]

Hello everyone its been a long time since ive posted here. I've never been as confused by models as I am with these.