ATL: MATTHEW - Recon Discussion

[artist]

RECON is on its way to 95L. Please use this thread for discussion of its findings.

[cycloneye]

Plane is starting to decend.

[artist]

never mind

[cyclonic chronic]

141200 1327N 07503W 9907 00149 0079 +235 +129 198005 005 022 001 00

is that 149 meters or feet? either way they seem really low.

[x-y-no]

149 meters. They're flying at static pressure 990mb.

[latitude_20]

141200 1327N 07503W 9907 00149 0079 +235 +129 198005 005 022 001 00

is that 149 meters or feet? either way they seem really low.

Meters - right at about 490 feet.

[x-y-no]

I just can't bring myself to trust SFMR at all. 6 knots flight, 22 knots surface simply makes no sense.

[cycloneye]

I just can't bring myself to trust SFMR at all. 6 knots flight, 22 knots surface simply makes no sense.

They are flying south of the LLC.

[cyclonic chronic]

was thinking same thing, why are fl winds so much lower?

[latitude_20]

When can we expect a VORTEX message?

[cycloneye]

When can we expect a VORTEX message?

When they close the center,then a VDM comes.

[cycloneye]

They are still trying to close the circulation. Lets see if the next sets show that.

[HURAKAN]

I think they already closed the circulation but bc it's broad, they're trying to find the center

[cycloneye]

I have to go so who wants to continue posting the obs?

[plasticup]

Huh, SFMR is showing 34 knots and FL at 35 knots. That's better than I expected.

[latitude_20]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:26:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°52'N 75°37'W (13.8667N 75.6167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 296 miles (476 km) to the SSE (165°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (9°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 90° at 36kts (From the E at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 193m (633ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 196m (643ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:18:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW (339°) from the flight level center

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 24 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-114

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. SUSPECT AREA
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70     FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 24/1200,1800Z          A. 25/0000,0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE    B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
        C. 24/0830Z               C. 24/1945Z
        D. 14.8N 80.3W            D. 15.3N 83.0W
        E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1800Z   E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0600Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
        SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

     3. REMARKS:
        A.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
          THE AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 24/1730Z AND
          OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
        B.THE G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION INTO THIS
          AREA DEPARTING 24/1200Z. OPERATING FL 380-430.


[cycloneye]

Last set has plenty of TS force winds.

[cycloneye]

Plane is acending so this mission is over.

[x-y-no]

So what are we supposed to think about SFMR when we see stuff like this:

Code: Select all

122700 1405N 08122W 8441 01496 0045 +153 -068 282018 020 041 005 00
122730 1404N 08123W 8428 01511 0044 +159 -076 284014 016 043 007 00
122800 1403N 08124W 8431 01510 0046 +160 -084 270015 016 042 008 00
122830 1402N 08125W 8431 01512 0051 +154 -088 299014 015 040 013 00
122900 1400N 08126W 8433 01506 0050 +156 -092 310013 017 042 011 00
122930 1359N 08128W 8429 01513 0057 +145 -092 292013 015 042 012 00


One unflagged reading after another that are two to three times the 850mb flight level wind.

Is that really credible, or is SFMR just wacked?