ATL: NICOLE - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah I'd still not get too far into the exact track from the models simply because there is still a little while to go with this and in this sort of set-up whilst the broad idea of a NNE track looks very solid, obviously there will be a big difference to the weather if it sets-up further to the west then the models are suggesting.

Too early yet to know if this is indeed the case.

A classic up the coast track like a noreaster would do. The flooding could be just as bad further north as it could be in Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm looking forward to the first dedicated GFDL and HWRF runs that should be out soon.

EDIT: 18z GFDL takes 96L ENE and the NE to Cuba, and then due north into SEFL. Still waiting on intensity info.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z HWRF takes a 50 knot storm into SEFL as well.

[ericinmia]

[hurricaneCW]

Both models show a more impressive storm after Florida, near the Carolinas. By that time, the storm will probably be more subtropical if not extratropical but it's quite interesting nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280002
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0002 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100928 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100928  0000   100928  1200   100929  0000   100929  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.6N  86.7W   18.6N  85.9W   18.4N  84.8W   19.0N  83.0W
BAMD    18.6N  86.7W   18.6N  85.8W   18.8N  84.4W   20.0N  82.9W
BAMM    18.6N  86.7W   18.5N  85.8W   18.3N  84.6W   19.0N  82.9W
LBAR    18.6N  86.7W   19.0N  86.2W   20.1N  86.0W   22.1N  85.8W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100930  0000   101001  0000   101002  0000   101003  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.0N  80.8W   26.5N  76.9W   30.5N  74.2W   33.6N  69.5W
BAMD    22.1N  81.4W   27.1N  77.6W   30.8N  72.5W   35.9N  63.5W
BAMM    20.9N  81.0W   25.6N  77.5W   29.1N  74.3W   33.3N  67.9W
LBAR    25.1N  85.6W   31.4N  83.7W   35.7N  75.4W   40.6N  61.7W
SHIP        61KTS          73KTS          76KTS          67KTS
DSHP        61KTS          61KTS          65KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.6N LONCUR =  86.7W DIRCUR =  80DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  18.4N LONM12 =  88.0W DIRM12 =  84DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  18.2N LONM24 =  88.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Rainband]

ull east of florida gets my attention

[SouthFLTropics]

ull east of florida gets my attention

What is the significance of the ULL?

SFT

[Blown Away]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...mostly because the shear is going to be screaming out of the west...

Somehow, we may not even get much rain when all is said and done, just NW winds and dry air.

I'm following the 00z TVCN model which shows a Irene type track exiting out near Vero in about 50 hours. Plenty of time to become a decent TS or minimal Hurricane IMO.

[SouthFLTropics]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...mostly because the shear is going to be screaming out of the west...

Somehow, we may not even get much rain when all is said and done, just NW winds and dry air.

I'm following the 00z TVCN model which shows a Irene type track exiting out near Vero in about 50 hours. Plenty of time to become a decent TS or minimal Hurricane IMO.

I agree...I think that is certainly possible...Not likely but possible.

SFT

[Blown Away]

TAFB showing a track similar to the TVCN.

[Wthrman13]

I'm following the 00z TVCN model which shows a Irene type track exiting out near Vero in about 50 hours. Plenty of time to become a decent TS or minimal Hurricane IMO.

Remember that the TVCN isn't a model itself, but rather a consensus of other models. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[Ptarmigan]

The models agree that it will go northeast. None of the models are bullish, despite the fact that it is over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic. Looks to be a rainmaker. I wonder if any of the storms spawned by this system could become major hurricanes?

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS with PREDICT recon data (right?) now rolling.

[SouthDadeFish]

I believe only the Euro has the Predict data

[SFLcane]

I believe only the Euro has the Predict data

Correct the 00z run later tonight.

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe only the Euro has the Predict data

Thanks. Very interesting.

[sponger]

If SFL has to take a hit this year a 50 knot storm is the way to go. Until we get initialization of a TD, everything is speculation.

[Aquawind]

GFS is out.. Looks like most of "it" will stay east of Florida..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ntxw]

GFS is out.. Looks like most of "it" will stay east of Florida..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

With all of the eastern troughing pattern in place and continuing, seems reasonably likely. A lot more rain on saturated soil though.