WPAC: INVEST 92W

[dexterlabio]

Cool stuff, I been thinking about moving there, wife grew up there and I been to manila a few times. But thats neither here nor their.... But on that note here is another great site for weather in the westpac, mainly the PI...



http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2009/ ... -over.html

This is a nice spot where you can come to study tropical cyclone activities. Witnessed so many remarkable storms that passed here.

...I believe the owner of that site is a Filipino. I visit his site often for real-time weather updates.

[StormingB81]

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml


The more I see this model the more I think Okinawa needs to keep an eye on this one.

[RobWESTPACWX]

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml


The more I see this model the more I think Okinawa needs to keep an eye on this one.

I agree, it is for sure that this storm will head N skirting the E coast of the PI. But I think the big thing right now is initilization, is it going to devlop or not. The vorticity is there, the convection is there plus SST. That is 3. But the exhuast is good to weak and its sitting under about 20kts of shear. On that note, I still am not to excited on this thing starting... (not discounting it though)

[StormingB81]

Seems like some models dont have it developing for 2-3 days

[StormingB81]

Looking at this right now. I am glad I am not a betting man because it doesn't look like it will do much RIGHT now. as we all know that could change though and this is just my opinion so i could be wrong

[supercane]

From today's ITOP discussion:

ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/09/28 23:00
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/28 19:13
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/28 22:37
Synoptic Overview:

Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
ITOP24 has tracked to around 130E ...a little better organized
in past 24 hours....Another area of convection has developed at
around 137E (ITOP26)


The suspect cloud cluster near 150E....shown little development.


ITOP25 probably now around 147E...showing as a cluster of
convection.
Model Overview:

EC 850mb Vorticity loop - little showing on surface wind fields
of models currently.

EC vorticity Loop


Model intercomparison of EC/GFS/NGP/UKMet at 72 hours on 28/12Z
model runs:

model.ComNGU_1deg.201009281200.072_Vort-850-streaml.gif
Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

The forecast suggested that there was little evidence for
development of the cloud clusters. Cloud cluster with the most
potential appears to be ITOP24 near 130E. Has shown some sense
of rotation on CIMSS MIMIC animation sequence.
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

Using ECMWF as prime forecast model, in 24 hours the 2 vorticity
centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 ITOP26 ITOP25
At 29/12Z: 13N 128E 12N 135E 13N 144E

These positions for ITOP24 and ITOP25 are consistent with the UK
and GFS runs - however GFS has developed another center at 12N
135E - (which becomes its dominant center by 01/12Z)
DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

In 48 hours the 3 vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 ITOP26 ITOP25
At 30/12Z: 13N 125E 13N 134E 15N 141E

Note: GFS and NOGAPS both show support for ITOP26. GFS has
surface low at 12.2N 133.4E
Longterm Outlook:

The 3 centers are trackable further into the model run.
ITOP24 ITOP26 ITOP25

At 01/12Z 15N 122E 13N 132E 16N 138E
At 02/12Z 15N 118E 16N 132E 19N 137E
At 03/12Z 15N 113E 19N 132E 20N 134E
At 04/12Z N/A 22N 133E (merges with ITOP26)
After 05/12Z (Diffuse vorticity pattern)


Summary:
EC ensembles and latest deterministic run favors ITOP 24 to
develop as it approaches the Philippines and then further
develops it west of the Philippines. GFS and NOGAPS favor a
system (ITOP26) further north around 19N 132E on 03/12Z - with
some support from EC 28/12Z run. GFS 28/12Z run has 35 knots by
02/12Z, 65 knots by 03/12Z, 80 knots by 04/12Z and 85 knots by
05/12Z.

[StormingB81]

And No gaps has it becoming a stronger system as well..maybe it will suprise us.

[StormingB81]

Is anyone suprised that JMA has nothing up yet?

[RobWESTPACWX]

That does not suprise me at all. JMA usually will wait until the system is a TD before going ahead & wrng on it. KMA does have a lot stamped there, they usually call it a TD before anyone else, so should watch what they say.

[StormingB81]

Rob, You see what No Gaps is saying..Looks liek this could develop in a pretty decent storm..unfortunatly it brings it very close to land...specially Tiawan which is one country who can miss some typhoons

[StormingB81]

If I am looking at this correctly 92W is RIGHT next to PI. I believe we will have 93W later on today next to YAP and it will be that one that develops.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

I do not expect any development for the moment. The wide area in the Philippine sea is becoming unfriendly for tc formation with 20-30kts wind shear. Maybe if shear relaxes sooner and this (or these, as I see some couple of convections over there) moves poleward, then development would be favored more.

[StormingB81]

NOGAPS now has it going north then NE so looks like this may not even effect any land at all

[RobWESTPACWX]

You know Dexter I agree with you, this whole area is so unhealthy for storms, and more and more through today I'm believing this system will not pop. Still looks like a good dosage of precip for luzon though.

[StormingB81]

Well I guess I was half right 93W has popped up. New thread has been started. Looking at the map where I was talking about 93W they have somehting on there saying 94W so we could have 3 invest on there. yes I know it is unfavorable now but could become interesting if it settles down

[StormingB81]

Also it still remains poor for JTWC:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL TURNING. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[phwxenthusiast]

UKMET tracks it across N. Luzon, fwiw... completely different from the NOGAPS' northeasterly movement scenario...

[StormingB81]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrfpr.png

percentages are pretty good for something if coditions become favorable

[dexterlabio]

I do not buy any of these model runs yet, for I still doubt any development as of now not until the condition becomes more favorable in the area. I also think that this invest would track towards the north.


shear tendency chart



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane]

From the latest ITOP discussion:

ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/09/29 23:00
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/29 19:32
Synoptic Overview:

Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
Overall, there has been slightly better organization notable
over this period. A cloud feature is consolidating in the South
China Sea around 110E...ITOP24 has tracked to around 129E with
some sense of rotation evident...ITOP26 is trackable to 135E but
has not developed...ITOP25 has moved to around Guam
longitudes...evidence on Guam radar of rotation...925mb heights
have fallen 6 decameters in last 12 hours at Guam.

Model Overview:

EC 850mb Vorticity loop -

EC vorticity Loop

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

The forecast suggested that there was little evidence of
development of the cloud clusters in the short term but favored
the EC scenario of development west of the Philippines in the
next few days. The GFS model preferred rapid development by
03/12Z around 20N 132E at the expense of the low in the South
China Sea (SCS) but has now locked into the SCS system as the
dominating feature.
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

In 24 hours the most significant vorticity centers are tracking
to:
ITOP24 ITOP25
At 30/12Z: 12N 138E 12N 148E 14N 159E

Positions consistent with previous 24 hour model run

DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

In 48 hours the 3 vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 ITOP25
At 01/12Z: 15N 130E 16N 141E 15N 150E

Longterm Outlook:

The 3 centers are trackable further into the model run.
ITOP24 ITOP25

At 01/12Z 16N 125E 16N 139E 18N 148E (poor)
At 02/12Z 17N 122E 16N 137E 20N 148E (poor)
At 04/12Z 18N 120E 25N 136E
At 05/12Z 17N 117E
At 06/12Z 17N 115E (Diffuse vorticity pattern elsewhere)
At 07/12Z

Summary:
EC ensembles and latest deterministic run favors major
development in the South China Sea with ITOP 24 passing over the
Philippines as a wave and merging with the SCS low. All models
extend an elongated trough to the northeast with a low
developing 18N 134E around 03/12Z. Neither EC nor GFS indicate
any significant intensity and UK keeps trough-like.

Further ahead a cloud cluster near the dateline (11N 178W)
appears to track across to be XXX at XXXX.