ATL: OTTO - Models

[Vortex]

H72 just N of the mona passage..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Vortex]

00 NAM loop...W/WNW just N DR at end of loop...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Blown Away]

06 BAM MODELS:

069
WHXX01 KWBC 020707
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0707 UTC SAT OCT 2 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101002 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101002 0600 101002 1800 101003 0600 101003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 54.0W 17.9N 56.2W 18.7N 58.6W 19.5N 60.8W
BAMD 17.1N 54.0W 17.5N 55.4W 17.6N 56.7W 17.9N 57.8W
BAMM 17.1N 54.0W 17.7N 55.9W 18.1N 57.8W 18.7N 59.6W
LBAR 17.1N 54.0W 17.8N 56.0W 18.1N 58.1W 18.4N 60.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101004 0600 101005 0600 101006 0600 101007 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 63.1W 21.4N 68.4W 22.5N 72.9W 22.9N 76.1W
BAMD 18.2N 58.9W 19.4N 61.9W 21.3N 65.3W 21.9N 66.2W
BAMM 19.2N 61.5W 20.2N 66.0W 21.5N 69.8W 22.0N 71.7W
LBAR 18.7N 62.2W 19.2N 66.0W 20.0N 68.6W 21.1N 67.8W
SHIP 37KTS 41KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 37KTS 41KTS 46KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 48.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

12z Bam Models

Code: Select all

 021242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC SAT OCT 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101002 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101002  1200   101003  0000   101003  1200   101004  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  55.1W   18.2N  57.5W   19.0N  59.9W   19.8N  62.4W
BAMD    17.3N  55.1W   17.5N  56.6W   17.6N  57.9W   17.9N  59.2W
BAMM    17.3N  55.1W   17.7N  57.1W   18.1N  59.3W   18.6N  61.3W
LBAR    17.3N  55.1W   17.9N  57.3W   18.4N  59.3W   18.8N  61.4W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101004  1200   101005  1200   101006  1200   101007  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.4N  65.4W   21.7N  71.0W   22.5N  74.8W   22.1N  77.3W
BAMD    18.3N  60.8W   19.9N  64.7W   22.0N  68.4W   23.6N  69.6W
BAMM    18.9N  63.8W   19.9N  68.6W   20.9N  71.4W   21.3N  72.0W
LBAR    19.3N  63.5W   19.9N  67.5W   21.2N  69.9W   22.8N  69.6W
SHIP        41KTS          48KTS          58KTS          63KTS
DSHP        41KTS          48KTS          58KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.3N LONCUR =  55.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  16.8N LONM12 =  52.5W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  15.7N LONM24 =  49.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

gatorcane,the EURO.

[jlauderdal]

ships has it at 62 knots, euro looks pretty good, not sure what model gatorcane is looking at

[gatorcane]

The 00Z Euro is more bullish I give it that, but I would like to see several runs showing this type of development.

The trough that is expected to come of the East Coast of the United States late next week is gigantic. It turns whatever comes of this NE out into the Atlantic in a hurry.

[northjaxpro]

A deep trough will be reinforced over the Eastern CONUS this upcoming week. I don't foresee any tropical cyclone threats at least for the next 7-10 days for Florida, GOM or US East Coast. The threat will come back once the pattern shifts and some ridging returns along the U.S. East Coast, which may take place by the middle of this month.

[SFLcane]

The 00Z Euro is more bullish I give it that, but I would like to see several runs showing this type of development.

The trough that is expected to come of the East Coast of the United States late next week is gigantic. It turns whatever comes of this NE out into the Atlantic in a hurry.

Indeed that trof means business and will likely turn anything that trys to make a run at the eastcoast. We might very well escape this season without a significant landfalling hurricane in the U.S.

[northjaxpro]

The 00Z Euro is more bullish I give it that, but I would like to see several runs showing this type of development.

The trough that is expected to come of the East Coast of the United States late next week is gigantic. It turns whatever comes of this NE out into the Atlantic in a hurry.

Indeed that trof means business and will likely turn anything that trys to make a run at the eastcoast. We might very well escape this season without a significant landfalling hurricane in the U.S.

The U.S. East Coast and the GOM should stay safe at least for the next 7-10 days with that cold upper level deep trough firmly established.

[Vortex]

We'll likely see a spin-up N of DR next week but there's no chance of it getting west of 75W..The area to watch will be the accumulation of energy transferring back to the western carribean as a result of some of the energy currently over the eastern carribean this weekend...Boad low pressure will likely develop across the western carribean towards the middle to end of the week...The process will be slow as it will take some time to mix out the dry air over the NW carribean. NE winds will be gusty for the FL east coast as the gradient tightens next week...By the end of the week moisture should be on the increas across South FL/SE Gulf/NW carribean and a more organized area of low pressure may be near Jamaica in about a week...

[GCANE]

We'll likely see a spin-up N of DR next week but there's no chance of it getting west of 75W..The area to watch will be the accumulation of energy transferring back to the western carribean as a result of some of the energy currently over the eastern carribean this weekend...Boad low pressure will likely develop across the western carribean towards the middle to end of the week...The process will be slow as it will take some time to mix out the dry air over the NW carribean. NE winds will be gusty for the FL east coast as the gradient tightens next week...By the end of the week moisture should be on the increas across South FL/SE Gulf/NW carribean and a more organized area of low pressure may be near Jamaica in about a week...

West Carib in about 100 hrs does look interesting.

Boundary-layer theta-e air will be relatively high then.

There looks to be a 310K PV anomoly forecast east of Honduras / Nicaragua border.

GFS is hinting at a warm-core spin-up.

Shear is forecast to be low east of 85W.

[gatorcane]

Nam really bullish this run with it heading into the se bahamas and slowing down

[gatorcane]

I looked at the gfs and ecmwf. If this develops and misses the connection with the east coast trough in 5 days, both models suggest some ridging slides east into the se us and sw Atlantic by day 8 and 9. That would allow this to go more west.

[gatorcane]

12z gfs really recurves this. Recurve begins just north of puerto Rico.

[cpdaman]

ditto with the euro (12z)

[Ntxw]

Pattern doesn't look friendly for systems moving towards the U.S. coastline north of the Greater Antilles much of this month. Only chance really is anything that forms deep into the Caribbean and is picked up. Pattern across the country is changing into the fall/winter setup and will likely take apart these systems as they get closer.

[Macrocane]

The CMC and the Euro have been pretty consistent developing this system, and now the NOGAPS and the UKMET are now on board so I would consider the GFS as an outlier at the moment.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't forget. It all depends on when and if it develops. To which direction it will go.

[gatorcane]

For some reason the NAM does not want to recurve this. Here is the 18z. Note the trough lifting out and this system is drifting west far to the south