ATL: OTTO - Models

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#161 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:01 pm

Vortex wrote:looking at the hi-res vis this afternoon the area just NE of guadeloupe looks very interesting and goes in line with where several of the models depict an llc may generate from...


I agree, now lets see if it can fire some convection over the next two days. I believe this will be a slow development process. It's never fun to have a tropical cyclone develop in the Caribbean, because someone has to get hit.
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#162 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:08 pm

The upper level winds will start easing tonight as the ULL near bermuda gets absorbed by the polar trough...Should see very deep convection fire this evening across the leewards later tonight..At the same time the winds aloft will begin to weaken and more favorable conditions should exist by saturday...
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#163 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:13 pm

I do think some type of low will form and either pass over southern DR or just S of the island…It’s very likely that whatever forms will be near Jamaica/Eastern Cuba in about 5-6 days…
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#164 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:18 pm

Vortex wrote:I do think some type of low will form and either pass over southern DR or just S of the island…It’s very likely that whatever forms will be near Jamaica/Eastern Cuba in about 5-6 days…


I would just have a hard time seeing whatever comes of this making it all the way across the Carib without interacting with a trough and getting pulled north. Even if it takes all the way till the Yucatan.
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#165 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:26 pm

12Z ECM ensembles all over it as well near Jamacia/E Cuba later Next week...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif
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#166 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:32 pm

18Z GFS about to roll...
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#167 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:43 pm

H12 weak low developing over leewards by saturday morning...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif
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#168 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:46 pm

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#169 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:58 pm

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Weatherfreak000

#170 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:04 pm

^^^
Bigtime track shift
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#171 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:08 pm

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#172 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:12 pm

H108..interesting look with multiple lows....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
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#173 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:22 pm

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#174 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:24 pm

It appears wave/low near islands this weekend heads W into the western carribean and the low near 48W develops heads wnw and slowly develops and is located NE of the greater antilles.....
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#175 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:28 pm

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#176 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:32 pm

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#177 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:34 pm

H180...looks to get active over the SW carribean Next week as both ECM/GFS develop the system over the SW carribean...It would appear that the low that forms this weekend will be part of the organization over the SW carribean later next week...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
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#178 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:38 pm

H192 looks very active over the SW carribean...right on schdule for the 2nd peak of the season....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
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#179 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:49 pm

500 mb at H72...there is a fairly good consensus that we will have an organized low of varying intensity in the vicinity of PR late sunday/monday...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif
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#180 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:35 pm

00Z NAM H60 organizinh just ESE of PR



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif
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