WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WEAKENING, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. FORTUNATELY, A 051100Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
AND CMA ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND ALSO PROVIDE FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, PRIMARILY FROM THE 050255Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING NUMEROUS 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
UNCLASSIFIABLE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY, REFLECTING MUCH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED
TO 30 KNOTS.
B. TD 14W IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION. THE 05/00Z 700 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
COL REGION NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER EASTERN ASIA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE A
SHORT-TERM EASTWARD INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 12-24. HOWEVER, AFTER THE
TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
PRODUCING QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES NORTH OF 20N IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER CHINA, HAVE PRODUCED
INCREASING VWS VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, TD 14W APPEARS TO BE BOXED IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT; ANY SUSTAINED MOTION NORTH OR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING VWS AND FURTHER WEAKENING, THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DE-COUPLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
DAYS AT THE LATEST WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
EARLIER DISSIPATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST REASONING. THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

it's my birthday today, lol... and i was hoping for a really strong cat 5 typhoon out in the open pacific... instead we have TD 14W... but with the way this season is going, i guess i really can't complain right??

[HURAKAN]

it's my birthday today, lol... and i was hoping for a really strong cat 5 typhoon out in the open pacific... instead we have TD 14W... but with the way this season is going, i guess i really can't complain right??

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.5N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.5N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 110.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS, TD 14W CROSSED
OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITHOUT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND HAINAN ISLAND ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM DESPITE ITS RETURN TO AN OVER-WATER TRACK. FROM TAU 24
THROUGH TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A ZONE OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH VWS INCREASING TO OVER 30 KNOTS
POLEWARD OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING
THE SYSTEM EVEN AS IT MADE AN OVER-LAND TRACK IS SHOWING THE EARLY
SIGNS OF SUPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING NEAR SHANGHAI IS
PUMPING MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TD 14W
MOVES TOWARD THE ZONE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE RESULTING
COMBINATION OF VWS IN THE UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE INFLOW OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CAP OFF
DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. THE NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.

[HURAKAN]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WEAKENING, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. FORTUNATELY, A 051100Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
AND CMA ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND ALSO PROVIDE FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, PRIMARILY FROM THE 050255Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING NUMEROUS 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
UNCLASSIFIABLE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY, REFLECTING MUCH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED
TO 30 KNOTS.
B. TD 14W IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION. THE 05/00Z 700 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
COL REGION NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER EASTERN ASIA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE A
SHORT-TERM EASTWARD INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 12-24. HOWEVER, AFTER THE
TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
PRODUCING QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES NORTH OF 20N IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER CHINA, HAVE PRODUCED
INCREASING VWS VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, TD 14W APPEARS TO BE BOXED IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT; ANY SUSTAINED MOTION NORTH OR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING VWS AND FURTHER WEAKENING, THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DE-COUPLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
DAYS AT THE LATEST WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
EARLIER DISSIPATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST REASONING. THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Final Warning Yippee! Some of it is already drifting NE, I believe this will bring some rain to JP.

[Infdidoll]

Happy Birthday phwx!

Hurakan is back...does that mean the ATL is cooling off as well?

[HURAKAN]

Happy Birthday phwx!

Hurakan is back...does that mean the ATL is cooling off as well?

LOL ... It was quiet in the Atlantic, so it gives me time for the rest of the world!!

[Chacor]

Still a TD at 30kt from JMA.