WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W

[StormingB81]

SW of 92W I mean I thought it was one in the same but 92W has moved over land and now the back end of it has become 95w

I am at a place where I cannot post photos.


And this from JTWC:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
108.OE, HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8N 110.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
WHILE A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL IL-DEFINED
AND IS TRACKING CLOSER TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Typhoon10]

Upgraded to Good

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.0N 108.8E IS NOW RELOCATED TO 17.0N 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 95NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 041857Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
COMMA-SHAPED BAND FEEDING INTO WHAT IS LIKELY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER ASCAT VERIFIES A LARGE
CYCLONIC WIND FIELD WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING OFF OF EASTERN
CHINA CONVERGES INTO THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE
LLCC IS UNCERTAIN. VIGOROUS POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HELPING TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

[StormingB81]

Beat me to it. And this is system is pretty much stationary so I wonder where it will go. Some models have it tracking to the NE

[RobWESTPACWX]

Given the upper level streamlines I think it will drift N slowly then move NE after 72hrs. But shouldnt develop any stronger than a TD given its proximately to land.

So ya Storming, I agree with you on the eventual track to the NE

[RobWESTPACWX]

[StormingB81]

Upgraded to Tropical Depression 14W

Awaiting text and path photo.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just put a video together guys, let me know what you think.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2859xfqqcA[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

LOL, well I guess my video above is already old. Just sub TCFA for "TD" LOL

[StormingB81]

wtpn31 pgtw 050300
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
ref/a/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/042251z Oct 10//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 14w (fourteen) warning nr 001
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
050000z --- near 18.2n 109.3e
movement past six hours - 010 degrees at 06 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 18.2n 109.3e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
051200z --- 18.9n 109.2e
Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 24 hr posit: 345 deg/ 05 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
060000z --- 19.9n 108.9e
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 36 hr posit: 360 deg/ 06 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
061200z --- 21.1n 108.9e
Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 48 hr posit: 025 deg/ 07 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
070000z --- 22.4n 109.5e
Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over land
vector to 72 hr posit: 060 deg/ 06 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
080000z --- 23.7n 111.8e
Max sustained winds - 010 kt, gusts 020 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over land
---
remarks:
050300z position near 18.4n 109.3e.
Tropical depression (td) 14w (fourteen), located approximately 40 nm
south of hainan, has tracked northward at 06 knots during the past
six hours. This warning supersedes and cancels ref a, navmarfcstcen
042300z Oct 10 tropical cyclone formation alert (wtpn21 pgtw 042300)
maximum significant wave height at 050000z is 9 feet. Next warnings
at 050900z, 051500z, 052100z and 060300z.//

[StormingB81]

I cant gets the Track on here but JTWC has it becomming a TS

[HURAKAN]

track

[HURAKAN]

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATEDINFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041857Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND FEEDING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A
LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST
SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND. THIS CHANNEL IS AIDING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER. DESPITE THE COMMA PATTERN INDICATED ON A 042346Z
91 GHZ SSMIS, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC IS ONLY
FAIR AS THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.0.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TD 14W.
B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND
WEAKEN, THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
TONKIN AT TAU 24. SUSTAINED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH WARM SEA SUFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION AND ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO
LOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKEST PART OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INTENSIFY TO THE EXTENT THAT IT REMAINS OVER
WATER, AND THEN DISIPATE OVER LAND. DUE TO A LACK OF AVAILABILITY OF
MANY OF THE MOST RELIABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND EXTREMELY POOR
AGREEMENT OF THOSE AVAILABLE, THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSTANT RATE OF MOVEMENT. THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
1200Z ECMWF MODEL RUN.//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

Hard to say if it JMA is going to consider it a TS even if JTWC does.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[StormingB81]

Thank you Hurakan. I tried but It wouldn;t let me post them because of where I am at

[HURAKAN]

close-up

[Chacor]

JMA:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 18.5N 108.5E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[dexterlabio]

This could just die in China before it moves further to the NE.

[RobWESTPACWX]

My thoughts as well dexter, I think it will at least its tropical characteristics before re emerging back in to the ECS. Probably becoming sub-tropical.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Actually here are my thoughts on the track, likely will linger in china for 24-48hrs before going to the NE