ATL: OTTO - Advisories

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
500 AM AST SUN OCT 10 2010

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OTTO CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE
SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT
BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OTTO...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. THESE MODELS PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TOO FAST. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF RE-ENERGIZE OTTO BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE LOW ON
DAYS 4 AND 5.

OTTO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MOVING 65 DEGREES AT 34 KT. THE FLOW
AHEAD OF OTTO IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD...MOVING AROUND THE APEX OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE AZORES. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE CURRENTLY
NEAR WESTERN EUROPE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
TRACK IS MIRRORED MAINLY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...
UKMET...AND GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 35.3N 45.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 38.1N 39.2W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 11/0600Z 41.5N 32.4W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 11/1800Z 43.4N 27.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 12/0600Z 42.4N 25.1W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 13/0600Z 39.5N 23.5W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 14/0600Z 37.0N 21.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 19.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 10 2010

...OTTO NOW POST-TROPICAL...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AZORES ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 41.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM OTTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. OTTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST ON MONDAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL OTTO WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AZORES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OTTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OTTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY
METEO-FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN