ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201010082227
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010100818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 227N, 799W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100700, , BEST, 0, 211N, 801W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100706, , BEST, 0, 197N, 802W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100712, , BEST, 0, 182N, 802W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100718, , BEST, 0, 167N, 801W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 797W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100806, , BEST, 0, 144N, 793W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100812, , BEST, 0, 137N, 789W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010100818, , BEST, 0, 132N, 786W, 20, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that discussed about this SW Caribbean system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109636&start=0

[Vortex]

Here we go!!!!!

[cycloneye]

The first image of invest 98L.

[KWT]

Does have a decent circulation and I'm not all that shocked it got made 98L but the models aren't all that keen on it so we will have to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010100900, , BEST, 0, 134N, 784W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[gatorcane]

Well it needs a lot of work but it is in a prime area for development this time of year. Could become a hurricane if it stays over water as the shear is light across the sw Caribbean sea.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2



Latest

[Ivanhater]

Well it needs a lot of work but it is in a prime area for development this time of year. Could become a hurricane if it stays over water as the shear is light across the sw Caribbean sea.

If anything develops and wants to stay a named system it better not try to get out of the Caribbean. Shear continues to look horrible for anything that tries to go further north.

Those shear values blasting over the Gulf and S.Florida(if correct) look great for those wanting a quiet couple of weeks.

[srainhoutx]

Let's see just how quickly this develops. A slower solution could well lead to some long days ahead IMO.

[gatorcane]

Well it needs a lot of work but it is in a prime area for development this time of year. Could become a hurricane if it stays over water as the shear is light across the sw Caribbean sea.

If anything develops and wants to stay a named system it better not try to get out of the Caribbean. Shear continues to look horrible for anything that tries to go further north.

Well ivanhater I hope you are right. Should this develop into a hurricane in the western Caribbean, I have no confidence that shear is going to be there across the southern gom or south Florida down the road if it moves north. It's only early to mid October let us not forget. Also the cmc shows development once in the Bahamas.

[Ivanhater]

Well it needs a lot of work but it is in a prime area for development this time of year. Could become a hurricane if it stays over water as the shear is light across the sw Caribbean sea.

If anything develops and wants to stay a named system it better not try to get out of the Caribbean. Shear continues to look horrible for anything that tries to go further north.

Well ivanhater I hope you are right. Should this develop into a hurricane in the western Caribbean, I have no confidence that shear is going to be there across the southern gom or south Florida down the road if it moves north. It's only early to mid October let us not forget. Also the cmc shows development once in the Bahamas.

We are gonna need a complete pattern reversal for the shear values to let up any time soon. Models are in good agreement with the pattern to stay in place, at least for the next couple of weeks.

For any tropical action for the U.S, a slower solution is preferred to allow for a pattern change.

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater, I have taken a look at the 200mb-500mb zonal shear forecasts from the cmc and gfs. It looks like the strong westerly shear gets nudged north gradually over the next week to 10 days leaving southern Florida in an area of shear but not strong enough to rip the system apart. Will be interesting to monitor these trends.

[Vortex]

Well it needs a lot of work but it is in a prime area for development this time of year. Could become a hurricane if it stays over water as the shear is light across the sw Caribbean sea.

If anything develops and wants to stay a named system it better not try to get out of the Caribbean. Shear continues to look horrible for anything that tries to go further north.

Those shear values blasting over the Gulf and S.Florida(if correct) look great for those wanting a quiet couple of weeks.

Ivan,

Whats your early call in terms of the longer term track and max intensity?

[Vortex]

This has the classic look of an October storm. Climatology for the period October 10-20th indicates that those storms originating in that time period and that form west of 77W and south of 15N effect the area of Western Cuba/Southern Fl/Western Bahamas about 90% of the time according to the charts dating back 125 years+...

[Vortex]

This ship reports NW winds to the wsw of the center this last hour.


SHIP S 0000 11.90 -81.10 92 224 290 15.0KTS


Buoy report to the NW of center..Sustained North winds of 21kts...


Conditions at 42057 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 10/08/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in

[Vortex]

Wilma serves as a good reminder of "strong shear" and anything but dissipation...


Snipet from wikipedia:



A powerful eastward-moving mid-level trough across the central United States turned the hurricane northeastward and caused it to gradually accelerate. Vertical wind shear increased as strong upper-level southwesterly flow increased, though in spite of the shear Wilma continued to intensify.[1] Early on October 24, Wilma attained major hurricane status while located about 120 miles (190 km) west-southwest of Key West, Florida. It gradually became better organized, with the large 50 miles (80 km) eye becoming very distinct on satellite and radar imagery. Wilma was able to retain its strength because large eyes in tropical cyclones are more stable and more resistant to vertical wind shear

[Vortex]

Continues to slowly organize...Nice looking image.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Ivanhater]

Gator,

The shear never really leaves enough to amount to anything substantial and is even enforced more, with shear values increasing even more. We could always get a kink in the westerlies that are blasting over the Gulf with a cut off low or something, but that solution is not supported by any model at this point.

Vortex,

I believe Wilma is another case. The trough that was coming to turn Wilma was not in the Gulf yet and was forecast to increase. In this case, the westerlies are already well established over the Gulf and Florida from west to east and not forecast to move. Nothing will get ventilated by the shear with the set-up in place now.

[Vortex]

Gator,

The shear never really leaves enough to amount to anything substantial and is even enforced more, with shear values increasing even more. We could always get a kink in the westerlies that are blasting over the Gulf with cut off low or something, but that solution is not supported by any model at this point.

Vortex, I believe Wilma is another case. The trough that was coming to turn Wilma was not in the Gulf yet and was forecast to increase. In this case, the westerlies are already well established over the Gulf and Florida from east to west and not forecast to move. Nothing will get ventilated by the shear with the set-up in place now.

I always enjoy reading your analysis and expectations...Got an early call yet in the longer term?