ATL: PAULA - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

A lot more quiet on here than last night, thats for sure.

[gatorcane]

A lot more quiet on here than last night, thats for sure.

Not sure why. We have a cat2 headed for the yucatan channel and most of south Florida is in the cone.

[SouthDadeFish]

That's what I'm wondering. Check this out, the MM5E:



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

[Evil Jeremy]

That's what I'm wondering. Check this out, the MM5E:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ats_wn.png

MM5B is worse for SFL:
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

Also, can someone remind me what the MM5s are again lol?

[SouthDadeFish]

Aren't they that superensemble model?

[boca]

Paula will most likely scoot along northern coast of Cuba look at the short wave moving SE into florida paula would have to make a hard right.thats probably why its quiet because paula isn't really a threat.

[blp]

What happened to the CMC. It has been pretty bad with this system. I still don't see it picking it up and it is a CAT 2.

[Rainband]

Paula will most likely scoot along northern coast of Cuba look at the short wave moving SE into florida paula would have to make a hard right.thats probably why its quiet because paula isn't really a threat.

agreed

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z 48 hrs Running the cuba spine....New for GFS

[fci]

A lot more quiet on here than last night, thats for sure.

Not sure why. We have a cat2 headed for the yucatan channel and most of south Florida is in the cone.

Simple answer.
Because South Florida is not being threatened by Paula

[dixiebreeze]

A lot more quiet on here than last night, thats for sure.

Probably 'cause most of us are watching the Chilean miner's rescue.

[geomindspin]

A lot more quiet on here than last night, thats for sure.

Probably 'cause most of us are watching the Chilean miner's rescue.

I agree... I have been glued to it since it started.

[supercane]

[ronjon]

All 20 members of the GFS ensemble now take Paula over S FL. The GFDL and HWRF now brush the keys in the FL straits. The BAMD and BAMM are similar. I have to ask why the NHC is hugging the GFS along the northern Cuban coast when a large group of models are much further north?

[AJC3]

All 20 members of the GFS ensemble now take Paula over S FL. The GFDL and HWRF now brush the keys in the FL straits. The BAMD and BAMM are similar. I have to ask why the NHC is hugging the GFS along the northern Cuban coast when a large group of models are much further north?

This was pretty much explained in the 5 AM TCD...

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS...PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM
DEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER
MODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

[wxman57]

A lot more quiet on here than last night, thats for sure.

Not sure why. We have a cat2 headed for the yucatan channel and most of south Florida is in the cone.

The problem with the error cone is that it's the same size for all situations, regardless of the potential for a storm to head in a given direction. For example, let's consider a storm tracking west around 10N/40W in the central Atlantic. The cone will extend to the left side of the track to very near 5N. However, the chances of such a storm tracking WSW in that region all the way to 5N are remote at best.

So the cone does not take into consideration environmental conditions that might prohibit a storm from moving in a certain direction. Such environmental conditions could be a strong westerly upper-level wind flow north of Paula. Just because the cone extends north to near the jet core doesn't mean that Paula could actually move in that direction (and survive). In reality, the chances of Paula's track deviating more to the north are much, much lower than of Paula deviating more to the south. But the cone remains uniform in size both north and south of the track.

[KWT]

I think the GFDL has done a good job with this one considering what many of the global models tried to do with it and also at times has done well with forecast a 75-85kts hurricane.

[wxman57]

If you remove the "garbage" models, like Clipper, LBAR, extrapolated, various experimental versions of some models (like NOGAPS), and the BAM then you come up with the model plot below. Note that the Canadian takes Paula almost due south and the NOGAPS nearly due west. HWRF takes it east then west back to the Yucatan. HWRF and NOGAPS are part of some of the consensus tracks that lie over Cuba, meaning that the consensus is likely wrong in Paula's case. We have Paula tracking midway between the Keys and Cuba on Friday as a sheared TS with a tiny wind field.

[x-y-no]

If you remove the "garbage" models, like Clipper, LBAR, extrapolated, various experimental versions of some models (like NOGAPS), and the BAM then you come up with the model plot below. Note that the Canadian takes Paula almost due south and the NOGAPS nearly due west. HWRF takes it east then west back to the Yucatan. HWRF and NOGAPS are part of some of the consensus tracks that lie over Cuba, meaning that the consensus is likely wrong in Paula's case. We have Paula tracking midway between the Keys and Cuba on Friday as a sheared TS with a tiny wind field.

Speaking of garbage models (at least as far as Paula is concerned) I've yet to see the Canadian initialize even a closed low, when in fact Paula was a cat 2 hurricane. If that doesn't justify tossing the CMC out of consideration I don't know what would ...

[fci]

If you remove the "garbage" models, like Clipper, LBAR, extrapolated, various experimental versions of some models (like NOGAPS), and the BAM then you come up with the model plot below. Note that the Canadian takes Paula almost due south and the NOGAPS nearly due west. HWRF takes it east then west back to the Yucatan. HWRF and NOGAPS are part of some of the consensus tracks that lie over Cuba, meaning that the consensus is likely wrong in Paula's case. We have Paula tracking midway between the Keys and Cuba on Friday as a sheared TS with a tiny wind field.

Thanks to you and AJC3 for explaining the models and how you guys and the NHC are interpreting them.
People hone in, for whatever reasons; on the models that create the most excitement for them in spite of the explanations and reasonings why some models are incorrect and why the cone is not scientific and mainly a set mathematical "error" zone; realistic or not.