ATL: PAULA - Models

[Aquawind]

Models seem to pick out what may be a heck of an end game for the 2010 season. Wouldn't surprise me to see multiple Caribbean storms by Thanksgiving.

That has been the agreement since the monsoon trough entered the Basin weeks ago and so far no serious organization..The models have spit out everything and anything from this area and so far nuttin serious other than rain..we shall see..

[FireRat]

Yeah only time will really tell, for now Paula alone might become more than a handful for us in the next week. I feel this one is the highest shot at a real threat this year. Incredible how we are in the second peak of the season and right on time the little devil shows up

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Trending a little farther north...

[SouthFloridawx]

GFDL animation...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101200-paula18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

HWRF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010101200-paula18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

[KWT]

Models seem all over the place with this system, most don't even have a good grip of whats out there presently yet alone whats going to happen in the future!

The GFDL looks reasonable enough though trackwise.

[KWT]

By the way the 06z GFS keeps Paula in the Caribbean through 120hrs, it does head close to Cuba before looping back into the Yucatan and getting sheared to pieces.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS rolling.

EDIT: The run opens Paula up in 18 hours and looses it altogether quickly after.

[KWT]

Clealy the models are seeing a poor set-up aloft but for now Paula looks pretty good, I think they are rather too quick on weakening the system, then again they've never really done too well with Paula in the first place.

[HurricaneBelle]

Clealy the models are seeing a poor set-up aloft but for now Paula looks pretty good, I think they are rather too quick on weakening the system, then again they've never really done too well with Paula in the first place.

Part of it may be due to the fact she's a very small feature.

[Ptarmigan]

Clealy the models are seeing a poor set-up aloft but for now Paula looks pretty good, I think they are rather too quick on weakening the system, then again they've never really done too well with Paula in the first place.

Exactly. I notice that too. The forecast in 5 days has Paula as a tropical storm, despite being over some warm water. Paula is a small storm, so I think computer models have a harder time with smaller storms. I know computer models did see Wilma as a major hurricane though, but Wilma was larger.

[KWT]

Yeah the small size probably does make a difference to the model forecasts as they probably haven't got a good grip on the set-up, though the ECM has good enough resolution nowdays to probably not be able to use that excuse anymore...

[Evil Jeremy]

12z CMC looses it quickly.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's funny how the models lose it quickly while Paula is busy intensifying into a category two. Nice.

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS quickly brings it into SFL in 66+ Hours

[petit_bois]

It's sad that none of the models can initialize as a hurricane... Let alone a Cat 2.
NHC is on it's own on this one when it comes to intensity.

[Blown Away]

Where does the Nogaps go after 66 hours?

[caneseddy]

NOGAPS quickly brings it into SFL in 66+ Hours

I'm starting to wonder if NOGAPS and GFDL have the right idea with this storm whereby the stronger it gets, the more NE it gets pushed up

It would be amazing if Nogaps ends up verifying over the other major models, since NOGAPS is always slammed

[caneseddy]

NOGAPS quickly brings it into SFL in 66+ Hours

I'm starting to wonder if NOGAPS and GFDL have the right idea with this storm whereby the stronger it gets, the fornt picks it up

It would be amazing if Nogaps ends up verifying over the other major models, since NOGAPS is always slammed