WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1241 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:07 am

ClarkEligue wrote:Just got word that the towns of Divilacan, Maconacon and Palanan in Isabela province got obliterated. These were the towns that got all the brunt of Megi/Juan as a category 5. All I saw on the video was roofs torn out as if an EF5 tornado tore up the place.

Video from ABS-CBN (Tagalog language sorry, but the devastation is clearly seen)

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation/regions/10/20/10/aerial-survey-typhoon-damage-isabela


We all knew that was going to happen. I hope to God they were 100% evacuated though! I would think Divilacan, which got the right-front quadrant, would be the worst hit, but it is sure to be catastrophic in all those places.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1242 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:51 am

That damage is so terrible, but with a CAT 5 making landfall this was expected to happen. Nature can be terrible.. Anyhow below is my late late update today...
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsDuigCdK00[/youtube]
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#1243 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:06 pm

KWT wrote:Will you be able to put the video up on youtube by any chance?


Hi guys! Thanks for the feedback!

Here's a link to the video I shot and I was well north of where Megi came ashore - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9tckfJrTnI

I don't think I'll be going after Megi in China. It will be a long road trip for what looks like a rapidly weakening system maybe hitting at night.
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#1244 Postby shah8 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:53 pm

There was a bump from 90kt to 105kt over the past few hours.
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#1245 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:06 pm

TH, I'm sure you got enough amazing footage out of Luzon on this storm.
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#1246 Postby drdavisjr » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:14 pm

Has anyone noticed how poleward outflow has been greatly reduced over the past few hours? If so, wouldn't that indicate that the ridge to the north is rebuilding?

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#1247 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:20 pm

Well the Navy is coming, looks like the Essex will be around for some relief efforts.


http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/phi ... s-1.122520
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Re:

#1248 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:21 pm

drdavisjr wrote:Has anyone noticed how poleward outflow has been greatly reduced over the past few hours? If so, wouldn't that indicate that the ridge to the north is rebuilding?

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I noticed it as well, but it actually is more indicated of the exceptional weakness of the ridge to the N, it is running in to the trough there with the mass amount of Vertical wind shear, starting to see this storm weaken now and good riddance.
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Re: Re:

#1249 Postby drdavisjr » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:25 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:I noticed it as well, but it actually is more indicated of the exceptional weakness of the ridge to the N, it is running in to the trough there with the mass amount of Vertical wind shear, starting to see this storm weaken now and good riddance.


Thanks. That helps.

Question. Isn't it rather odd to see WPAC systems recurve this late in the year? I thought October and beyond, storms generally have a more southern track.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1250 Postby giringgiting » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:51 pm

I'd like to make my first post in this forum with this long thread on Megi. First off, a bunch of thanks to you guys for all the info you've been sharing particularly with storms in the WPAC. I've been a guest reader for more than a year now.

I recall it was around last Sept. 29 or 30, when I have first read about it in some link from typhoon2000.ph to an ITOP page, that a storm will be formed some time Oct 12-13 at a certain area in the WPAC. And it turned out to be this STY Megi. I was just amazed at the fact that around two weeks before its cyclogenesis, some models were already able to pick it up with consistency and increasing certainty. Almost seems like stuff from a fortune teller's crystal ball. The rapid intensification of Megi given the perfect conditions in its path was also amazing.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1251 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:57 pm

giringgiting wrote:I'd like to make my first post in this forum with this long thread on Megi. First off, a bunch of thanks to you guys for all the info you've been sharing particularly with storms in the WPAC. I've been a guest reader for more than a year now.

I recall it was around last Sept. 29 or 30, when I have first read about it in some link from typhoon2000.ph to an ITOP page, that a storm will be formed some time Oct 12-13 at a certain area in the WPAC. And it turned out to be this STY Megi. I was just amazed at the fact that around two weeks before its cyclogenesis, some models were already able to pick it up with consistency and increasing certainty. Almost seems like stuff from a fortune teller's crystal ball. The rapid intensification of Megi given the perfect conditions in its path was also amazing.


the ITCZ was really strong during that period so i'm guessing it was inevitable for a tropical system to form... that's my opinion...:)
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#1252 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:15 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 037
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.6N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.6N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 118.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Image
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#1253 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:20 pm

Image

Image

Image
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#1254 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:21 pm

Agreed PH, the monsoonal flow was really nuts, perhaps due to the lack of storms this season not causing any upwelling to cool the temps. hmmm never thought of that one.
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#1255 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:26 pm

Wow, really strong rainband headed for Taiwan there.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1256 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:34 pm

The rainy and stormy days have just started this mid-October, compared to the past months where I expected to be rainy because of the onset of the SW monsoon. Could this be an indication that La Nina has started to affect the Western Pacific?
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#1257 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:45 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25-NM RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC RING
OF INTENSE CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES SOME PRESSURE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN ASIA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE AND TAIWAN
RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY OF 102 KNOTS (FINAL T 77 KNOTS) AND
THE RJTD/KNES ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST.
THE 21/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS (E.G., FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA)
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND SUPPORT A STRONG STEERING STR. THE TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH,
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1258 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:53 pm

Just did my update for today.. such a busy day out there with four storms effecting East Asia and the West Pac. It's pretty long.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmK6sDy2MbQ[/youtube]
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#1259 Postby windysocks » Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:29 pm

Any chance this could beat another record - the longest-surviving typhoon? Megi has certainly been around for a while.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1260 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:36 pm

:uarrow: I don't think so, there have been other typhoons with a longer life, Ioke for example though it originated in the CPAC.
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