WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Typhoon Hunter]

My discussion on CNN last night about documenting Megi in the Philippines - http://cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2010/10/21/ramos.asia.storm.chaser.intv.cnn

[RobWESTPACWX]

Nice, I watched it live, was like Rio rio! (my wife) i know this guy. And she's like ya sure and I'm like shut it women. LOL So next time your at an interview, think about that! LOL

Way off topic.. Just wanted to let you know.

So i like this image really showing the effect of the shear, most of the moisture to the North has been lost.

[Ad Novoxium]

Any chance this could beat another record - the longest-surviving typhoon? Megi has certainly been around for a while.

Megi's been active for 12 days now, a full ten days below the native record holder (1986's erratic Typhoon Wayne), and judging by looks, Megi is not going to last that long.

[Chacor]

Continues to weaken:

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 22.1N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 24.3N 118.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 241200UTC 27.0N 117.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Still wide spread flooding in Taiwan, already more reports of deaths there than in the PI. Due to landslides and flooding, check the video below. Shows some terrible flooding.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVsW8Ejt-78[/youtube]

[Chacor]

Three people have been killed in Taiwan by a landslide triggered by Typhoon Megi, the powerful storm that struck the Philippines earlier this week.

Six more are missing after the torrent of mud buried a temple in the coastal town of Suao.

Rescue teams were digging through mud at the White Cloud Buddhist temple in Suao city in search of six people believed to be trapped.

A search was also under way in Ilan county for a bus carrying 19 Chinese tourists on a road hit by multiple landslides and reported to have collapsed in one place.

These landslides stranded 400 drivers - about 70 have been airlifted to safety.

Others are walking or being taken by bus through a section of the road cleared by rescuers.

At least 26 people were killed when Typhoon Megi crossed the northern Philippines.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11606205

[RobWESTPACWX]

Belay my last on that one, 3 killed 21 missing. So scary news. None the less. I hope they are found.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Still crazy the amount of damage coming out of Taiwan. And shown on their radar, Megi sure is weakening, but the eye wall is still there.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, just watched a report on AFN, they were showing schools in Isabella that were destroyed. So sad. Then it went on to the bus explosion that killed 9, great timing.

[JTE50]

Wow, just watched a report on AFN, they were showing schools in Isabella that were destroyed. So sad. Then it went on to the bus explosion that killed 9, great timing.

Rob: Is "AFN" a military network?

[Crostorm]

Super typhoon Megi hits Taiwan causing landslides as 45 inches of rain falls in 48 hours

pictures

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picture ... hours.html

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 23.4N 118.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 26.0N 117.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250000UTC 27.6N 118.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =



WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 040
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.2N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 118.2E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T=4.5(77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF TY 15W. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH, TY 15W HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM SOUTHEASTERN TAIWAN INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AROUND A 30 NM EYE, WHICH IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN BOTH INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DESPITE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE,PASSAGE OVER A WARM SEA SURFACE AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENABLE TY 15W TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON
INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z,
230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



TPPN11 PGTW 230024
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 22/2330Z
C. 23.5N
D. 118.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 3.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/2130Z 23.2N 118.1E SSMI
ROSS




619
TCNA21 RJTD 230000 CCA
CCAA 23000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17233 11180 12104 240// 93506=
NAMELESS 18170 11363 14224 215// 90000=

WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC
00HR 23.4N 118.0E 965HPA 40M/S
30KTS 180KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR NNW 12KM/H
P+24HR 26.0N 117.8E 1005HPA 12M/S=

07fW40232
WTCI RCTP 230000 =
WARNING VALID 240000Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201013 (MEGI 201013) WARNING =
POSITION 230000Z AT TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ( 23.4N ) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ( 118.0E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NORTH 10KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 968 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 33 METER PER SECOND GUST 43 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 200 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 231200Z AT TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ( 24.5N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST ( 117.9E )=
24HRS VALID AT 240000Z AT TWO FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ( 25.6N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST ( 117.9E )=
48HRS VALID AT 250000Z AT TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ( 27.8N ) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO EAST ( 118.2E )=
72HRS VALID AT 260000Z Tropical Depression.=

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya it is, also there is coverage on TFC, the filipino channel. But what is sad is they just mention the storm in passing.

So right now this storm looks like it should be making landfall in about 3 hours. Still a pretty decent eye wall on it.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 041
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.7N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 118.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

a record breaking storm in the world and possibly the strongest tropical cyclone observed about to make landfall in southern china as a minimal typhoon. may god bless all

[brunota2003]

Wow, just watched a report on AFN, they were showing schools in Isabella that were destroyed. So sad. Then it went on to the bus explosion that killed 9, great timing.

Rob: Is "AFN" a military network?

AFN is the Armed Forces Network, we can watch sports, news, etc on it. We watched the Super Bowl in Iraq on AFN in Feb.

[Chacor]

BBC:

"In Taiwan, Megi brought 45 inches (114 cm) of rain to Ilan county in the northeast over a 48-hour period."

[equinox]

Do you think guys that Megi's name will be retired? A little loss of life but quite a big damage...

[Ad Novoxium]

Do you think guys that Megi's name will be retired? A little loss of life but quite a big damage...

At this point, it's hard to say if Megi's going after this season (Fengshen was worse, but didn't get it). That said, I do think that PAGASA will retire "Juan" as a result of Megi's impact there (although Fengshen was not retired, the PAGASA name it had - Frank - was retired before the year ended).

[HURAKAN]

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