WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

My evening update.... Figure since I'm on vacation and this keeps me busy.. LOL

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ad-hWbsPqxE[/youtube]

[StormingB81]

As of 845pm Okinawa ia NOW in TCCOR 3

[RobWESTPACWX]

Abouts time, figured it would happen this evening.

[StormingB81]

With the 50Kt permiter on JMA Okinawa is going to be REALLY close to 50 knot winds

[StormingB81]

It moved West again...Im wondering if this track will change as it keep moving west

[euro6208]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp2.png

models forecast chaba to strengthen to category 5! they were right about megi, will they be correct again?

one thing i notice about chaba is the large size, very large! probrably 1 of the largest on record

[Infdidoll]

Do they every update their website anymore on Kadena? Still saying TCOR 4. I'm just glad I made it to the store, today!

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 20.1N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 22.1N 127.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 281200UTC 23.9N 128.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 291200UTC 26.3N 129.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =



WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 31.4N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 35.9N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 128.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 400 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG A NARROW EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH OF NORTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE ERODES. COMPARISON OF 500 MB CHARTS
FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THIS EXTENSION HAS YET TO
WEAKEN, VALIDATING THE PRESENT 6-HOUR MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING COLD SURGE OVER
EASTERN ASIAN WATERS, HAS BEGUN TO BUFFET THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TYPHOON. A WEAK INFLUX OF STRATOCUMULUS IS SNAKING IN TOWARDS
THE CENTER OF THE TYPHOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SURGE HAS YET TO MODIFY THE
TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH TY 16W. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM A T4.0 TO A T4.5. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY REFLECTS THE NUMERICAL AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. MORE
RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEPLETED OVER THE CENTER. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ASSESSED AS A WEAKER SYSTEM INITIALLY, WHICH WOULD THEN REPLICATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STABILIZED SOME AS
GFDN AND WBAR HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACKING. BEYOND
TAU 48 NOGAPS AND GFDN DIVERGE WESTWARD FROM THE PACKING AND
ILLOGICALLY DRIVE THE TY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
SASEBO. JGSM AND EGRR (BEYOND TAU 72) TRACK THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
SLOW, PERHAPS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SURGE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE BY
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN




TPPN10 PGTW 261215
A. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA)
B. 26/1130Z
C. 20.2N
D. 128.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. A 6NM IRREG EYE IS
SURROUNDED BY A MG RING WITHOUT A AN EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A
DT OF 4.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 4.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0757Z 20.0N 128.4E SSMI
26/0846Z 20.0N 128.5E SSMS
26/0955Z 20.0N 128.4E SSMS
KIENZLE

130
TCNA21 RJTD 261200
CCAA 26120 47644 CHABA(1014) 18201 11282 12234 245// 93104=

[RobWESTPACWX]

Do they every update their website anymore on Kadena? Still saying TCOR 4. I'm just glad I made it to the store, today!

I see that, but get this Sasebo's Site, has Okinawa in TCOR III.....

http://163.251.101.54/public/Home.aspx? ... rue&site=2

[Infdidoll]

Thanks, Rob! The Kadena Weather Services site probably won't be updated until 0630 when someone comes in to work. lol

Off-topic, but man! The eastern U.S. is getting pounded today. Tornado warnings all over Indiana. 50 mph sustained winds with gusts over 60 mph. That's really high for inland Midwest!

[RobWESTPACWX]

I seen that, pretty intense day out their, I think I've only seen two storms here in the Kanto Plain when I got here, saw more underway than here. One thing I miss about home... Don't miss the really bad ones though.

[Infdidoll]

Wow...Things are certainly changing fast around here...and here I said I was going to get to bed EARLY tonight:

[Infdidoll]

WTPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.9N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 37.5N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 128.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 375 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Okay, so NOW I will say it - Kadena Weather Services better get on the ball. That is the only site a lot of people out here even know to check. They've still got us at TCOR 4. At this point, with as close as it's looking to be, I really won't be surprised to see us go to TCOR 1 for the first time since I've been on-island.

Wonder if James ever booked that flight to Naha?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ok, I admit. This storm may go a little farther W. Man this one is kicking my butt as far as getting the FCST right... Still think it will remain E though. Fairly confident on that. But ya, see the Sasebo page is actually updated here in YOKO, (by the guy who sits next to me at work) that is manned up 24/7, the Kadena one is like you said. Probably closed, or some one is slacking.

[RobWESTPACWX]

HOLD THE PHONE!!!! This is in knots.

[RobWESTPACWX]

IDK, that same ship is reporting .3rd of a mile vis and 999mb, they may have got one really strong gust.

[RobWESTPACWX]

It is the Tasman Challenger, apparently from NZ, they are probably used to the big seas and winds from being down South, figured they could plow right through this.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well once the typhoon starts interacting with the high as noted in the video that gradient is going to get crazy tight. That 107kts is not out of the question..

[wxman57]

HOLD THE PHONE!!!! This is in knots.

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/4cc6e8c9_56d8_0.png

That ship is 115 miles west of Chaba, near the outer feeder band region but away from any squalls. Surface pressure of 999.5mb indicates it's well outside the storm. No way it's a reliable wind report. Possibly an error in coding the wind observation.