ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Ivanhater]

That is the run from last night. I was wondering how Vortex got it so fast

lol..just trying to keep up with you-ha

Well the upper air pattern is very similar this run compared to last night and as wxman said, it is not likely to dissipate that quickly.

[Ivanhater]

Higher resolution Euro out.

Looks like it brings the remnants into SE Louisiana/Mississippi area

[Vortex]

once we start to get some definitive motion we'll have a much better "feel" for which camp has more validity...Also, we should see the convective bursting currently taking place near/over center become more concentrated and expand this evening...

[Vortex]

I really don't have any particular model of choice at this point...I do think as the intensity/motion become better defined later this evening we'll be able to zero in on the models with more validity.

[fci]

I guess a ridge was in place since July except when Nicole and Paula passed by.

Nicole died when she hit the Florida Straits and Paula deflected off of the Florida Straits. Neither "passed by".
Not Florida at least.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yes neither "passed by" because a trough ripped them up. I guess if you would like to be technical I should have used the word approach. My point was both ridges and troughs have shielded Florida this year.

[sunnyday]

What happened to the idea that no storm could enter the Gulf of Mexico because of winds or a ridge? Now, it's going into the Gulf. Who knows what to believe? I'll stick with the fat lady who has been very reliable this season as far as no hits on Fl.

[Ntxw]

What happened to the idea that no storm could enter the Gulf of Mexico because of winds or a ridge? Now, it's going into the Gulf. Who knows what to believe? I'll stick with the fat lady who has been very reliable this season as far as no hits on Fl.

I think what people meant was a major system. Storms do go into the gulf but usually by then it's just tropical moisture being ripped apart riding along troughs and nothing like exceptions such as Kate. If it makes it up there it will likely be on the verge of weakening rapidly vs a hit to S Florida etc where it can be stronger compared to a northern gulf hit.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well sunnyday when new data comes in the models will change their results. The key is to notice the trends of these models. What trend in so far as a possible direction Richard will go in.

[Ivanhater]

[sunnyday]

Thank you for the explanations.

[Evil Jeremy]

Judging by the latest models and overall trends, I think the NHC will move the cone a little west through day four, but show a sharper curve to the north on days four and five.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Hey Ivanhater the tvcn goes a little crazy in the gulf eh?

[FireRat]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




October 23 will be a crucial date determining the future path of Richard. On that day we will know which road he will take. This will be mostly dependent on his intensity. A stronger Richard is to be feared because he'll probably accelerate due to more sensitivity to the steering currents and may be heading for the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on the 24th....faster than thought.

A weaker Richard, that is, Category 1 and below will go more west-north west towards the Yucatan Peninsula to land as a slow-moving hurricane on October 25. Then the Yucatan itself might weaken the storm drastically.
Bottom Line in my opinion, it's pure speculation on the exact track and strength Richard will have by early next week until whatever he does on Saturday the 23rd!

[caneseddy]

18z NAM is still sticking with the southern set of models

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Yeah quite a few models still convinced it goes into CA, I suspect the Yucatan idea is the right idea right now as most models IMO just don't come even close enough to the probable strength of this one...exactly the same thing which screwed up early Paula forecasts whilst the hurricane models clocked on much faster to the true motion.

It'd be somewhat rare for a system to get into the W.Gulf at this time of year as well wouldn't it?!

[Weatherfreak000]

Hey Ivanhater the tvcn goes a little crazy in the gulf eh?

With the higher than average uncertainty that is to be expected I would say...I believe I even last night made the claim to discount the TVCN altogether until we get some consistency.


GFS vs GFDL eh? What a battle this time around...I like how the EURO is that sneaky outlier in the middle with the potentially most reasonable track towards the Panhandle. I have seen nothing so far that suggests this is going to sneak past that ridge. The only reason the GFS didn't see Richard interacting with the ridge was because it fell apart by then.

No reason to believe left biased outliers, reason to be weary of the right biased. Gotta like the consensus models and EURO towards the NE tip of the Yucatan.

[Blown Away]

Hey Ivanhater the tvcn goes a little crazy in the gulf eh?

With the higher than average uncertainty that is to be expected I would say...I believe I even last night made the claim to discount the TVCN altogether until we get some consistency.


GFS vs GFDL eh? What a battle this time around...I like how the EURO is that sneaky outlier in the middle with the potentially most reasonable track towards the Panhandle. I have seen nothing so far that suggests this is going to sneak past that ridge. The only reason the GFS didn't see Richard interacting with the ridge was because it fell apart by then.

No reason to believe left biased outliers, reason to be weary of the right biased. Gotta like the consensus models and EURO towards the NE tip of the Yucatan.

IMO 18z models suggest death over CA/Yucatan. IMO anything that moves towards the NGOM will be a sheared mess at best or remnant low. IMO the only way Richard impacts the CONUS as a cane is if he gets out in front of the trough and it is swept NE somewhere over the Florida peninsula.

[Ivanhater]

Blow Away, if this reaches major hurricane status before hitting the Northern Yucatan as the model consensus suggest right now, a weak hurricane cannot be ruled out for the Florida Panhandle. The front will not make it to the panhandle until next weekend it looks, as the ridge over the Florida peninsula looks to hold strong. Depending on how strong it gets over the Caribbean and the speed of movement, a weak hurricane cannot be ruled out for the Panhandle.

A sheared tropical storm is welcomed here, so I'm rooting for it

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS is even further south