ATL : Ex SHARY - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Weatherfreak000

#21 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:51 am

^^^
Wxman was exactly on the money. Shary and Tomas tomorrow imo very possible.
0 likes   

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1805
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re:

#22 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:54 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:^^^
Wxman was exactly on the money. Shary and Tomas tomorrow imo very possible.

He was. I say 90L becomes Shary and 92L is Tomas...and then only 3 more to go until Greek if we bang these 2 out, and ACE will shoot up.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#23 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:14 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:42 am

ABNT20 KNHC 281137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 32
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#25 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:56 am

Wow, is it really almost Halloween? This year is awesome.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:27 am

AL, 92, 2010102812, , BEST, 0, 241N, 587W, 30, 1009, LO

no change
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:34 am

Image

Briefly talked with Richard Pasch and he's not impressed with this system at the surface.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:39 am

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        30    17    16    15    11     9    44    70    88    99    87    65    45
SHEAR DIR        243   254   237   265   283   233   224   223   221   227   241   263   281


Good shot at development in the next 24 hours, then shear increases to 99 knots :eek: according to SHIPS
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:21 am

Image

Inflow is improving
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#30 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:40 am

That definitely has the look of a subtropical depression or storm. Perhaps 70% at 2 pm?
0 likes   

User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 524
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#31 Postby TheBurn » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:00 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:23 am

Image

Image

latest
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:30 am

Plane going tommorow afternoon if necessary.

1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 29/1400Z
D. 29.0N 65.5W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:34 am

Image

Looking quite good
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#35 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:23 am

Clear LLC, convection near center. It all comes down to whether or not the NHC feels like naming it. Better chance of that due to the potential Bermuda threat.
0 likes   

User avatar
candycane86
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 2
Age: 37
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:51 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#36 Postby candycane86 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:06 pm

so where do you guys think this will end up in the long term? i was surprised when i logged on here and saw 3 different systems this late. wow. anything looking to actually be a threat?
0 likes   
Miss Amie

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:14 pm

I was talking with John Cangialosi and he said that this system may have a 36-hour window for development and that it has been improving. Nonetheless, at least 2 hours ago he told me that they haven't been able to completely close a LLC and that's the only thing missing for a subtropical or tropical depression or storm to form. I would guess that chances for development may increase at 2 pm.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:38 pm

Remains at 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#39 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:00 pm


WTNT21 KNGU 281200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.6N 56.4W TO 24.9N 63.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 28/0600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N 56.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 17 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST UNDER A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DECREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER DEVELOP THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291200Z.//


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31390
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#40 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 28, 2010 3:36 pm

I'm a little bit surprised this one isn't higher then 60%, but I think recon will discover a storm tomorrow if it isn't upgraded before then...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests