#40 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 05, 2010 8:51 am
BOB 05/2010/09 Dated: 05.11. 2010
Time of issue: 1730 hours IST
Sub: Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 5th November 2010, near lat. 9.00N and long. 87.50E about 700 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 900 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1100 km southeast of Visakhapatnam. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 evening/night.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
05-11-2010/1430
9.0/87.5
75-85 gusting to 95
Cyclonic Storm
05-11-2010/1730
9.5/87.0
85-95 gusting to 105
Cyclonic Storm
05-11-2010/2330
9.5/86.5
95-105 gusting 115
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/0530
10.0/86.0
100-110 gusting 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/1130
10.5/85.5
110-120 gusting 130
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/2330
11.5/83.5
120-130 gusting 140
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/1130
12.5/81.5
120-130 gusting 140
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/2330
13.5/79.5
80-90 gusting 100
Cyclonic Storm
08-11-2010/1130
14.5/77.5
50-60 gusting 70
Depression
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7th November 2010.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.
Damage expected:
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
The system is under constant surveillance and concerned state Govts. are being informed.
Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 5th November.
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