WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 167.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.8S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.0S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 27.2S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.6S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 167.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131814Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO DUE TO THE
OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
SKIRT THE EASTERN COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
SST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND BECOME A GALE
FORCE LOW BY TAU 72; HOWEVER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ET. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
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