WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[StormingB81]

lol. very true...If it does or when the next one does come maybe a tree branch wont go through my windshield this time..

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF 00z run out - has billion dollar storm written all over it. Not good!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[supercane]

Now TS Ma-On per JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1106 MA-ON (1106) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.1N 155.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 20.3N 151.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140600UTC 21.5N 146.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 150600UTC 22.6N 140.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[StormingB81]

I am sure all eyes will be on it to see what track it will take..It is pretty interesting how much the track is changing and the uncertainty with all the factors weighed in. Crazy how so many things can effect a storm and the movement...Thats why I love these boards learn alot about the different situations and still learning..it is good to look stupid sometimes it means learning is occuring..lol

[supercane]

WTPQ30 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

JMA 06Z advisory map:


Compare above with JTWC's prognostic reasoning message:
WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A COALESCING, BUT STILL ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
CURVING TOWARDS THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 22N 150E. A 112202Z SSMIS 91H GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE TWO SPIRALING RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTION OF THE LLCC. A 112340Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH CAPTURED THE ENTIRE
LLCC, SHOWS 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH 30 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE FROM THE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 08W
IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALLER TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD
08W TO BE FILLING, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGER TUTT CELL FARTHER TO THE EAST LOCATED
NEAR 26N 176W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE
REFERENCED ASCAT PASS, SSMIS IMAGE, AND ANIMATED MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 08W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 96, WEAK INTERACTION
WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST DIP IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
NNNN

Latest ASCAT again shows large shield of 30+kt winds mainly to the NE of the center:


Latest Dvorak classification at 06Z from JTWC back up to 2.5/35kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 120620
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)
B. 12/0532Z
C. 18.7N
D. 155.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .45 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY

00Z model plots of GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and CMC. Note that these plots go out longer than the 5 days the major agencies are issuing, and that trusting outlooks extending out farther in time is often foolhardy, as Typhoon Hunter mentioned above:

[oaba09]

I am sure all eyes will be on it to see what track it will take..It is pretty interesting how much the track is changing and the uncertainty with all the factors weighed in. Crazy how so many things can effect a storm and the movement...Thats why I love these boards learn alot about the different situations and still learning..it is good to look stupid sometimes it means learning is occuring..lol

Right now, it seems like japan is the most likely destination so hopefully, people there will be prepared....I'll be watching this thing closely in the next couple of days...

[Typhoon Hunter]

The last time I saw models go this crazy on a storm in terms of intensity was during Megi. ECMWF speaks for itself, GFS and CMC both going 950hPa or lower. You don't see that very often!

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC upgrades to TS as well

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.4N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.0N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.6N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.2N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.6N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 155.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS MILD IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AROUND WHAT
REMAINS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SUPPRESSING
OUTFLOW. AN 112337Z AMSUB IMAGE REVEALS DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLCC, WHILE AN 112201Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS SHOWS A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND GENERALLY DIFFUSE
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY REMAINS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD
REGION, WITH BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EXTENDING WELL
AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT FIX IS BASED ON MSI AND THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RJTD FIX. THERE IS ALSO EXACT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN AGENCIES ON INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT RISES STEADILY ALONG TRACK. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
VARY WIDELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS TS 08W INTERACTS WITH THE
TUTT. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME, HOWEVER, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A
SUPPRESSING MECHANISM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK AVERAGE
31 DEGREES. THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 08W IS AN ANTICYLONE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF TOKYO, WHICH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM ALONG A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE,
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER TRACK UNCERTAINTY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA SIMULTANEOUS WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
RE-ORIENTATION AND WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

meanwhile, a great capture by the SSMI-S, 07z and 37Ghz H below:

[KWT]

Looks like it now has pretty good banding, steady strengthening for now but the set-up aloft looks pretty good for quicker strengthening in a few days.

Track keeps shifting eastwards as the models latch onto its strength, looks like a more typical track for a tropical system in the WPAC from what I've seen historically.

[dexterlabio]

This thing is gonna hit Japan from the south? No not my favorite country again. I wonder if things are going well now in that country after the quake and tsunami in the northern part.

[rdhdstpchld]

Not that I wish any more natural disasters on mainland, but I'd be very very happy if this totally veered north before hitting Oki...I'm happy with just watching them on storm2k -- don't need to live through any more...can't wait to get back to a place where extreme weather isn't an issue!!! So as I understand this particular moment's prediction/forecasting...( ) it's making a beeline for Okinawa/Ryukyus and then hitting the "forcefield" and pulling north?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[StormingB81]

What a difference 24 hours makes..from comming to the ryukyu islands to not even coming close at all..but like it was said earlier lets see how much this will chance between now and the weekend when it gets closer

[P.K.]

Also upgraded at 06Z by the CMA and KMA.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS MA-ON 1106 (1106) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC
00HR 18.7N 155.5E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 19.4N 150.3E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 20.3N 145.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 21.5N 140.3E 960HPA 40M/S
P+96HR 22.0N 136.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 22.2N 132.2E 940HPA 50M/S=


** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME TS 1106 MA-ON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120600UTC 19.1N 155.3E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 130600UTC 20.1N 151.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 140600UTC 21.1N 146.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT
72HR
POSITION 150600UTC 22.1N 140.7E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

-----

Also a TS as of 06Z from the CWB.

Tropical Storm MA-ON (1106)

0600UTC 12 July 2011
Center Location 18.9N 155.4E
Movement NW 13km/hr
Minimum Pressure 998hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s
Gust 25m/s
Radius of 15m/s 100km
Radius of 25m/s -km

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12 hours valid at:
1800UTC 12 July 2011
Center Position 19.6N 153.5E
Vector to 12 HR Position
WNW 18km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 70km
24 hours valid at:
0600UTC 13 July 2011
Center Position 20.2N 151.5E
Vector to 24 HR Position
WNW 18km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
36 hours valid at:
1800UTC 13 July 2011
Center Position 20.7N 149E
Vector to 36 HR Position
WNW 22km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 175km
48 hours valid at:
0600UTC 14 July 2011
Center Position 21.2N 146.5E
Vector to 48 HR Position
WNW 22km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 220km
72 hours valid at:
0600UTC 15 July 2011
Center Position 21.8N 141.3E
Vector to 72 HR Position
WEST 23km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 360km
96 hours valid at:
0600UTC 16 July 2011
Center Position 22.3N 137.5E
Vector to 96 HR Position
WEST 16km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 520km
120 hours valid at:
0600UTC 17 July 2011
Center Position 23.1N 134.6E
Vector to 120 HR Position
WNW 13km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 620km

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 19.4N 154.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 20.6N 150.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 141200UTC 21.6N 145.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151200UTC 22.7N 141.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.5N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.6N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.1N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.7N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 153.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE
AREA WEST OF THE STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, THE 37GHZ
CUT OF THE SSMIS SERIES REVEALS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING
ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT ALSO SHOWS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THUS, TS 08W HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT ONE QUADRANT. DIFFUSE ORGANIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY IS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD REGION,
STEALING ENERGY AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT INENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES. TS 08W IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 08W ON A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH (BETWEEN 30 AND
32 DEGREES). OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS
WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM.
THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS STIPS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS VIRTUALLY ALL AIDS AS THEY ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, BUT THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO AN OBSERVED TENDENCY OF STRAIGHT RUNNERS TO BE
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS.
C. BEGINNING NEAR THE TAU 84-96 PERIOD, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE STORM TO
TURN POLEWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A TRACK SOUTH
OF IWO TO, AND THE LONGER RANGE PROGS ARE INDICATING POLEWARD
MOVEMENT PRIOR TO THE RYUKUS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE TUTT
WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ALONG THE SAME TRACK, WHILE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED CLOSELY ON STIPS GUIDANCE.//

NNNN

CMA:
WTPQ20 BABJ 121200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS MA-ON 1106 (1106) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC
00HR 18.9N 154.7E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 19.7N 149.8E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 20.5N 145.0E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 21.8N 139.4E 960HPA 40M/S
P+96HR 22.9N 135.8E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 24.5N 131.7E 940HPA 50M/S=

KMA:
WTKO20 RKSL 121200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME TS 1106 MA-ON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121200UTC 19.4N 154.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 131200UTC 20.4N 149.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 141200UTC 21.4N 145.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
72HR
POSITION 151200UTC 22.6N 140.1E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

JTWC Dvorak estimate 2.5/35kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 121157
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MAON)
B. 12/1132Z
C. 18.9N
D. 154.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .55 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0726Z 18.7N 155.1E AMSR
12/0727Z 18.7N 155.1E SSMS
12/0916Z 18.9N 154.8E SSMS
HATHAWAY

[euro6208]

I see, Tropical Storm Ma-On is getting better organized. this storm has grown larger and larger. in fact, it's outflow is affecting us here on guam and the cnmi. it is raining very very hard here in guam. i can see lightning and hear loud thunder.



latest forecast from euro still shows a very powerful typhoon developing just south of japan.



with landfall in southern japan.

intensity estimates shows a much stronger system than currently estimated. about 55-60 knots.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 990.2mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.5

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[cycloneye]

JMA warning at 18:00 UTC

TS 1106 (MA-ON)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 12 July 2011
<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°25'(19.4°)
E153°35'(153.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE460km(250NM)
SW370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°40'(20.7°)
E149°00'(149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°50'(21.8°)
E144°35'(144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E139°50'(139.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 650km(350NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

EURO still showing a Kyushu landfall.. deepens to 947hpa by day 6 with max wind at 850hpa of around 120kts...