ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormhunter27]

Just my humble opinion, but I've been watching the overall synoptic pattern this year through tornado season. With the heat ridge in place across the central south, it's going to be difficult to get that east coast troughing out of the way. IN other words, it seems to me that we're looking at very high chance of recurve through most of the season if that pattern doesn't change in a big way.

It's not a non zero chance, but I think the season is going to resemble 2010 in a big way.

Disclaimer here! THis is only my opinion etc.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm a bit confused at gatorcanes and Frank's comments about recurve well east of the U.S. Latest GFS run looks pretty darn close to Maine to me and slams into Canada

Well it was making landfall in Eastern Nova Scotia yesterday, so it is trending westard with time.

[gatorcane]

It's important to note that its only Aug. 11th with alot of time left for CV systems to impact the U.S. or Caribbean islands. In fact the CV season typically runs from Aug 15h through Sept 15th.

In fact September has climatologically been a more active month for CV systems impacting the U.S. and that is 3+ weeks aways with the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season still 4 weeks away.

As far as these current invests are concerned, it is way too early to say what happens with them as far as where/if they develop or where they eventually end up.

You just can't look at model runs 240+ hours out and expect to have accurate results. Right now, the globals are suggesting a recurve east of North America but they could just as easily flip-flop back to a ridge in the Western Atlantic driving these invests westward. I will say the ECMWF has been quite consistent on either not developing or recurving but I wll not put my weight in the ECMWF or any model for this matter so far out.

Too early to say and definitely not wise to make any "black and white" statements right now.

Let's see how things unfold over the coming days with these invest. We should have a better idea by mid next week if they will pose a threat to the U.S. mainland or not.

[StormClouds63]

2011 vs. 2010
At least so far, the pattern is similar.
The overall weather pattern here along the GOM reminds me of 1980 with the big ridge of high pressure refusing to budge.

[Macrocane]

I know some of you don't trust the FIM (was kind of controversial yesterday) but FWIW it shows an interesting solution, it keeps a weak 92 L and develops it until it is picked up by the trough. It develops 93 L once it reaches 45W (August 15) then it moves 93L parallel or over some of the Antilles including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Cycloneye I know you don't like this run), at the end of the run 93 L is located near Turks and Caicos. These are the images for August 15 and August 18.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 12Z= Caribbean bound Over PR at 180 hrs
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[Stormcenter]

I'll go out on a limb (not much of limb) right now and say neither 93L or 92L will make it anywhere near the GOM. Of course the opposite will end up happening. JMHO

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 12Z near eastern Florida at 300 hr
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[Kohlecane]

GFS 12Z near eastern Florida at 300 hr
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

look at the next one coming off Africa, pretty Organized as shown

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 12Z at 348 hrs borders the South/North Carolina coasts...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Look how the western blob is waning, as the eastern blob closer to the Invest designated center is increasing.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater

[GCANE]

I would not be surprised if convection begins falling off soon and stay weak for about 10 hours.

[AHS2011]

Long Island Express 2.0 or is that unlikely?

[ROCK]

Couple of things

the GFS 384hr forecast is like me posting the NOGAPS...aint going to happen but fun to look at...

last time I checked it was 2011 and not 2010 so to say this is 2010 redux is inaccurate.

we have all seen this before...recurve with the models and then they start trending west. If the GFS ensembles dont give it anyway then some of you guys need to open your eyes. JMO of course.

Yes I dont post at 6am....thanks IVAN.....

[Ivanhater]

UP TO 40 PERCENT

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HurricaneBelle]

Long Island Express 2.0 or is that unlikely?

It sends it out to sea after brushing NC, a la Emily 1993.

[Kohlecane]

am i reading this right, both are at 40%?

[BigB0882]

No idea what this will do so far out but one thing is interesting. The GFS is showing a mighty close brush with the EC so if the typical westward trend kicks in then this may be a hit, anywhere from the GC to the EC.

[westwind]

:uarrow: am i reading this right, both are at 40%?

yeah both at 40%

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFDL 12Z= Caribbean bound
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation