ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Cor that SAL looks pretty brutal!

Gonna be a struggling system for the next few days given that presentation and that amount of dry air.

Usually SAL is also associated with quite strong low level flow, which I think Wxman57 stated.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder why there is so much dry air in the tropics these days?....
It's really keeping this season in check.

haha.. Global warming lol... j/k


actually though the saharan desert has been expanding over the last couple decades.

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=Brent,if all goes as the models are showing,this topic may be the #1 on pages.

1. Ike - 676
2. Fay - 671
3. Dean- 583
4. Gustav - 520
5. Dolly- 422
6. Ivan - 352
7. Wilma - 282
8. Chris - 265
9. Alex - 426
10. Earl - 225
10. Erika - 223
11. Bertha - 222
12. Ida - 217
14. Emily - 210
15. Hanna - 209
15. Ike models - 209

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I'm going to be very cross if this storm comes into the FL/ECUS area around 8/26-8/28 and ruins the premier of the second half of the season of Dr.Who!

[Aric Dunn]

I'm going to be very cross if this storm comes into the FL/ECUS area around 8/26-8/28 and ruins the premier of the second half of the season of Dr.Who!

haha... I love that show!! but Ill just download them

[KWT]

Cycloneye, FWIW Emily needs to go on that list now as well...

Overall biggest thread (If you include EVERYTHING) is Ike with something around the 950+ mark.

GFS running by the way folks.

Looks like a sharp trough/weak LLC present with it, so just dry air thats really preventing this system getting going yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Side note here.. if you all are not checking. the GFS is a little slower than the 00/06 z and stronger.
and takes it the length of Hispaniola

[KWT]

Aric, yep, probably going to take in E.Cuba as well...

The run of death, if conditions are good then it'll be ok...if conditions are anything other then good...that track is going to tear the ehart out of any developing TS/hurricane...probably would mean a somewhat further west track as well IMO, like 12z ECM from yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, yep, probably going to take in E.Cuba as well...

The run of death, if conditions are good then it'll be ok...if conditions are anything other then good...that track is going to tear the ehart out of any developing TS/hurricane...probably would mean a somewhat further west track as well IMO, like 12z ECM from yesterday.

yeah but still crazy consistency between the Euro and GFS run to run since late sunday.
have not seen more than like a 100 mile shift north or south since monday between the two. basically just north of Hispaniola or over it.

[cycloneye]

Todays TCPOD

The mission for Saturday remains as possible.

B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 20/1800Z NEAR
15.0N 53.0W

[ConvergenceZone]

Aric, yep, probably going to take in E.Cuba as well...

The run of death, if conditions are good then it'll be ok...if conditions are anything other then good...that track is going to tear the ehart out of any developing TS/hurricane...probably would mean a somewhat further west track as well IMO, like 12z ECM from yesterday.

I think the chance of it just happening to travel along the exact path of the length of that island is pretty small though, because that's such an exact location.

[Aric Dunn]

Well thats a first with the GFS. across eastern Cuba to just south of it at 156 hrs. looks just like georges track ... this is very close the run it had monday...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, yep, probably going to take in E.Cuba as well...

The run of death, if conditions are good then it'll be ok...if conditions are anything other then good...that track is going to tear the ehart out of any developing TS/hurricane...probably would mean a somewhat further west track as well IMO, like 12z ECM from yesterday.

I think the chance of it just happening to travel along the exact path of the length of that island is pretty small though, because that's such an exact location.

Right, its still just a generalization..

[AdamFirst]

I haven't seen the hype machine crank up so readily for an invest like this.

Why the special attention?

[cycloneye]

I haven't seen the hype machine crank up so readily for an invest like this.

Why the special attention?

The consistent model scenarios that are showing are like doom for many people.

[jlauderdal]

I haven't seen the hype machine crank up so readily for an invest like this.

Why the special attention?

model consistency

[Aric Dunn]

I haven't seen the hype machine crank up so readily for an invest like this.

Why the special attention?

The model scenarios that are showing are like doom for many people.

and extremely Consistent !! run to run very little variation at all. this GFS run is the largest shift yet... a whopping 200 miles at end of run.. first 5 days no change really since monday.

[Hurricaneman]

I personally think that the models initially are developing this a touch too fast, it has very little convection right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[AdamFirst]

I haven't seen the hype machine crank up so readily for an invest like this.

Why the special attention?

The model scenarios that are showing are like doom for many people.

and extremely Consistent !! run to run very little variation at all. this GFS run is the largest shift yet... a whopping 200 miles at end of run.. first 5 days no change really since monday.

Heh, looks like I'm behind the curve. Paying too much attention to Miami football as of late.

When should we expect the storm to start firing up? Is this another wait-and-see Emily/93L scenario or do the prospects look good in the short term?

[Aric Dunn]

I personally think that the models initially are developing this a touch too fast, it has very little convection right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

They are not "really" developing till around 55W but this has a large over all circ and is being steered by the low levels right now. so when you look at the models specifically the GFS. there is "L" meaning a low. well it clearly has a closed wind field and in the center there is lower pressure than the surrounding environment... so initially the models are starting out with looking like a developed system for the most part. but its not a "real" one till its classified by our human standards.