WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

[CrazyC83]

So the death toll could go over 1,000? That shows that even weak storms can be devastating...a comparison would be in 1999 when the deadliest Atlantic storm, by far, was a 30 mph tropical depression.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1121 WASHI (1121)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 09.6N 113.3E POOR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTH 80NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 06.9N 108.9E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HurricaneBill]

So the death toll could go over 1,000? That shows that even weak storms can be devastating...a comparison would be in 1999 when the deadliest Atlantic storm, by far, was a 30 mph tropical depression.

Or Tropical Storm Thelma in 1991. Thelma killed over 6,000 and is considered the Philippines' deadliest natural disaster.

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.8N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 6.1N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 4.2N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 112.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAD TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR
24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAD TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS NOW BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. A LARGER AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF STORM INDUCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONVERGING WITH THE NORTHEASTERLIES OF THE MONSOON.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AN 182200Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH, BUT THERE IS A LACK
OF EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. TS 27W IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM THE NORTH.
3. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS WASHI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36-
HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON ENTRAINING INTO THE BOUNDARY LEVEL HINDERING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LLCC VULNERABLE TO THE
LOWER-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND AID IN THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WBAR AND EGRR WHICH TRACK THE LLCC
WEST-NORTHWEST INTO VIETNAM. THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER-LEVELS. THEREFORE, THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WBAR AND EGRR AND IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT
THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUGGEST. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Dreadful situation! My thoughts go out to all those affected in the Philippines. You could see as it was passing over Mindanao all those super cool cloud tops, must have been unleashing hellish rains. Reminded me a bit of Ketsana as it inundated Manila.

[euro6208]

oh my god i saw some pictures and it is truly heartbreaking! damages everywhere and pictures of parents holding their dead children!

To think, they got brushed by Typhoon Songda, impacted by Severe Tropical Storm Nock-ten, Typhoon Nanmadol, Typhoon Nesat, Typhoon Nalgae, Tropical Storm Banyan, Tropical Depression 23 and now Tropical Storm Washi. Before Washi 48 people had been killed directly from tropical systems this year which included 2 super typhoons(Cat4) and a brush by 1 Cat 5 Superdooper Typhoon.

terrible end to this year...

[hurricane25]

Simply mind bloggling to see a weak tropical cyclone kill so many people. Rain and water are by far the most deadly effects of a cyclone! This is what killed so many people with storms like Mitch of 1998 and Katrina 2005(Jeanne 2004,ect) Unless of course you're hit with a Andrew, Camille, Gilbert, 1935 kind of storm that is.

Lets all pray for the people effected by this storm.

[hurricane25]

WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 9.7N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.2N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.3N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 111.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO
LOOSEN AND ENLARGE AS CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS UNRAVELED. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSET AND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 5 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS TO THE NORTH, ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. TD 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT DISSIPATES OVER
WATER DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH WBAR REMAINING AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 10.5N 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.1N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.6N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 110.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
DISPERSED AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANIMATION AND FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY HOOK FEATURE ON A
191039Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED FROM
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 15-25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LEVEL HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN A SHEARLINE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 12. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN





From JMA:

TD
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 19 December 2011

<Analyses at 19/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°00'(9.0°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa




Washi meets its end, and that probably ends the WPAC season this year...but in a very dreadful way. On a lighter note, for me, Washi was not even a very interesting or special system to track aside from the fact that it is a late-season storm and it took an usual path towards Mindanao...but here it goes and left a ghastly trail of destruction. Washi is plain horrible.


By the way, I just want to thank all of you for your support and sympathy to the victims of this storm here in the Philippines.

[Chacor]

Aid agencies in the Philippines are trying to reach more than 120,000 people affected by flash flooding on the island of Mindanao.

Coastal communities were devastated early on Saturday in flash floods triggered by a tropical storm.

Officials in two cities said mass burials were being organised as bodies were rapidly decomposing in the heat.

At least 972 people died in the disaster, according to goverment sources.

"We lost count for those still missing," disaster managment chief Benito Ramos said in a short statement.

[Cyclenall]

Yet another Wpac weak tropical cyclone (TS) that kills a huge number of people. I made a post a while ago about this weird thing in the Wpac where weak TCs always has higher death tolls than super typhoons and normal typhoons. When was the last time a super typhoon took over 1000 lives?

[Reesie]

Durian 2006 and Angela 95 both killed around 1000.

[HurricaneBill]

Typhoon Linda in 1997 killed over 4,000 and was just a Category 1 typhoon. It tracked south of Vietnam and impacted an area not used to seeing typhoons. Most of the dead were fishermen out at sea, who were never found.

[yulou]

CNN:more than 1000 missing in philippines after storm

the number has overtaken 9520Angela and 0621Durian

[yulou]

there was a TD in 2005(PASAGA called it Winnie) killed around 1000 in philippines
Fengshen did,too.

and utor(2001),lingling(2002),kajiki(2002),Xangsane(2000 & 2006),Ketsana and Parma(2009) all killed hundreds of poeple.

In china,Chebi(2001),Bilis(2006) and Saomai(2006) killed around 1000

[Chacor]

Latest official figures I've seen suggest nearly 1,100 dead and more than 1,500 missing.

[HurricaneBill]

In china,Chebi(2001),Bilis(2006) and Saomai(2006) killed around 1000

Typhoon Fred (9416) killed more than 1100 in China in 1994.