ATL: IRENE - Models

#1001 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:38 pm

Get the heck away from us stupid freakin Texas death ridge. Grrrrr you guys don't know how tired we are of it here. Take it somewhere else please!! :grr:

#1002 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:40 pm

192 hours

#1003 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:40 pm

Apalachicola

#1004 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:41 pm

H+192 absolute bomb just west of Tampa

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

#1005 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:41 pm

What is that a CAT4 or CAT 5 in the Eastern GOM there Michael?

Panhandle is about to be RIP there it looks like.

Good thing its GFS long-range and things can change.

#1006 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:42 pm

Severe Hurricane just west of Tampa

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal204.gif

#1007 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:43 pm

Another view of the system in the Eastern Gulf: :eek:

#1008 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:43 pm

Yes it hit the central Florida Panhandle this run

Turtle · #1009 Postby **Turtle** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:44 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Get the heck away from us stupid freakin Texas death ridge. Grrrrr you guys don't know how tired we are of it here. Take it somewhere else please!!

Any idea how long it will last? I think the only way to save Texas is with a hurricane, but if this thing lasts a few months, no hurricanes for us. :roll:

#1010 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:44 pm

Updated GFS!

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29
06Z Fri: Big bend 8/28
12Z Fri: Pensacola 8/29
18Z Fri: Apalachicola 8/28

#1011 Postby **psyclone** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:45 pm

the gulf certainly has the heat to generate a whopper given good upper level conditions. our surf temp has been in the upper 80's to near 90 lately. sickeningly warm. but we don't do hurricanes in the tampa bay area.... remember.. we have the magical forcefield that has kept majors away for almost a century!

#1012 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:45 pm

Turtle wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Get the heck away from us stupid freakin Texas death ridge. Grrrrr you guys don't know how tired we are of it here. Take it somewhere else please!!

Any idea how long it will last? I think the only way to save Texas is with a hurricane, but if this thing lasts a few months, no hurricanes for us.

Yeah that's what I'm afraid of. Then we will have to wait for next year's hurricane season as La Nina is coming back this summer. When will this crap drought end? Seriously.....

#1013 Postby **lonelymike** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:What is that a CAT4 or CAT 5 in the Eastern GOM there Michael?

Panhandle is about to be RIP there it looks like.

Good thing its GFS long-range and things can change.

Good thing is the Good for poop model :roll:

#1014 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:47 pm

There are just 2 many hits per GFS over FL to ignore any longer...my biggest concern is it rides the spine of the state right into the weakness....should it emerge off DR and stay just off the cuban coast than turn into the weakness over FL that would be a complete disaster.....

#1015 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:48 pm

It seems that if it can find a way to go north of Hispaniola, maybe it will deepen enough to miss Florida to the east...though it would be a major concern for the Bahamas.

#1016 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:50 pm

gatorcane wrote:It seems that if it can find a way to go north of Hispaniola, maybe it will deepen enough to miss Florida to the east...though it would be a major concern for the Bahamas.

I think based on the GFS/Euro/Canadian and especially the Ensemble members that is the least likely scenario.

#1017 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:50 pm

The amazing thing, to me, is how consistent the models have been run after run and model to model. Almost no real change in the forecast pattern by next Saturday, and a significant cyclone someplace in the gulf or Florida.

MW

indian · #1018 Postby **indian** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:50 pm

i have a feeling these models are going to flip flop hundreds of miles many more times

#1019 Postby **AdamFirst** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:51 pm

Vortex wrote:There are just 2 many hits per GFS over FL to ignore any longer...my biggest concern is it rides the spine of the state right into the weakness....should it emerge off DR and stay just off the cuban coast than turn into the weakness over FL that would be a complete disaster.....

Yeah, it would be like the 12z EURO operational showed (the ensembles are in the central-eastern Gulf)

StormClouds63 · #1020 Postby **StormClouds63** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:52 pm

Eastern GOM ... you guys can have it, and we'll keep the heat and drought.

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