ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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Evil Jeremy
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#1001 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:25 pm

At least with Irene there was enough for a couple VDMs. Not one here yet. Center pass should be in the next data set though, lets see what they find.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1002 Postby lebron23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:26 pm

Taken from The Weather Channel..

While parts of extreme east Texas, possibly including parts of the Houston/Galveston metro areas, may see some rainfall totals in excess of 4", the vast majority of the drought-parched Lone-Star State may see little, if any, significant rainfall from this tropical disturbance.
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#1003 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:26 pm

FWIW 12zJMA still brings 93L SW toward the Texas coast.
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#1004 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:27 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:At least with Irene there was enough for a couple VDMs. Not one here yet. Center pass should be in the next data set though, lets see what they find.


From what I've seen sometimes, the NOAA planes don't always issue VDMs. I noticed that recon is now finding lower pressures near the center than before, so it does appear to be organizing.
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#1005 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:27 pm

Yep, no longer tdo we get the major gulf hurricane, but its still got 3-4 days over water from the point of formation, so probably enough time to make a run atm hurricane strength IF the shear eases off...big IF of course!
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#1006 Postby HenkL » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:30 pm

Plane is now (2110Z) at almost same position where 3 hours ago (1827Z) they found a wind shift from SE to NW. Extrapolated SLP was 1010.1 then, 1007.7 now.
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#1007 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:30 pm

Latest CIMSS shear analysis shows that wind shear is dropping over the area, and now there is only a small area of >30 knot shear.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1008 Postby Airboy » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:31 pm

Looks like the pressure is a bit lower near the center now compared to the last pass at least.
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#1009 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:32 pm

000
URNT11 KWBC 012112
97779 21124 51260 90800 04700 18002 26242 /0008 49905 93317
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 09 KWBC

Image

Image
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#1010 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:33 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 012120
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 31 20110901
211030 2553N 09049W 9586 00445 0077 +257 +237 234003 004 020 000 00
211100 2554N 09048W 9585 00443 0077 +258 +233 232003 004 020 000 00
211130 2556N 09047W 9589 00443 0081 +256 +233 218004 005 /// /// 03
211200 2557N 09048W 9590 00445 0080 +258 +232 185002 003 020 000 00
211230 2558N 09050W 9586 00447 0080 +258 +235 161001 002 021 000 00
211300 2559N 09051W 9586 00448 0080 +258 +235 189001 001 020 001 03
211330 2600N 09053W 9588 00446 0079[+258 +235 212001 002 021 000 00
211400 2601N 09055W 9589 00443 0079 +259 +230 232002 002 021 000 00
211430 2602N 09056W 9585 00447 0079 +259 +234 222002 002 021 000 00
211500 2603N 09058W 9587 00449 0080 +259 +233 229002 003 021 000 00
211530 2603N 09100W 9591 00441 0079 +259 +234 211003 004 021 000 00
211600 2604N 09101W 9589 00443 0079 +259 +235 215004 004 021 000 00
211630 2605N 09103W 9587 00449 0083 +259 +233 216005 005 020 000 00
211700 2606N 09104W 9589 00444 0080 +259 +233 210005 006 021 000 00
211730 2607N 09106W 9587 00448 0086 +259 +232 207005 005 020 000 00
211800 2608N 09107W 9586 00448 0081 +259 +231 212004 005 020 000 00
211830 2609N 09109W 9589 00443 0079 +259 +233 201005 006 020 000 00
211900 2610N 09111W 9586 00446 0080 +258 +235 201006 007 021 000 00
211930 2611N 09112W 9586 00447 0079 +257 +237 209007 008 023 000 00
212000 2612N 09114W 9588 00447 0080 +256 +234 206008 008 022 000 00
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Re:

#1011 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:37 pm

HenkL wrote:Plane is now (2110Z) at almost same position where 3 hours ago (1827Z) they found a wind shift from SE to NW. Extrapolated SLP was 1010.1 then, 1007.7 now.


Henkl, heres the first one of that set, a couple others in there too, but it looks like it's starting to tighten up in this area....and the wind shift you mentioned above.

211330 2600N 09053W 9588 00446 0079 +258 +235 212001 002 021 000 00
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#1012 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:39 pm

Image

Image
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#1013 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:40 pm

Wide area for reference:

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1014 Postby imetrice » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:42 pm

From the looks of that water vapor image....it takes up half the gulf....could this develop into a large (size) system while its meandering around?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1015 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:42 pm

What are the odds they drop it to 60% since it is facing so much shear and dry air?
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#1016 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:43 pm

Sat presentation says it all. Broad Low but quickly organizing with more and more cyclonic turning picking up. Think this will get classified by tomorrow morning. If shear does fall below 15kts I'm afraid what might evolve given the 90F SST's in a big hurry!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#1017 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:43 pm

Turtle wrote:Hey, I saw this posted just an hour ago on another forum. It is the 18Z Nam. Can anyone tell me if that is the most recent one? I only know how to access GFS, so I'm not 100% sure this is the most recent. It actually puts me at ~3" of rain!

Image
Last edited by Portastorm on Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Moved from regular 93L thread to model thread
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1018 Postby swimaster20 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:43 pm

Turtle wrote:Hey, I saw this posted just an hour ago on another forum. It is the 18Z Nam. Can anyone tell me if that is the most recent one? I only know how to access GFS, so I'm not 100% sure this is the most recent. It actually puts me at ~3" of rain!

Yes, this is the most recent run of the NAM (Today's 18Z).
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#1019 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:43 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 012130
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 32 20110901
212030 2613N 09116W 9591 00440 0077 +258 +226 189008 008 022 000 00
212100 2614N 09117W 9587 00443 0077 +258 +228 185007 008 021 000 00
212130 2615N 09119W 9588 00442 0077 +257 +230 184007 007 020 000 00
212200 2616N 09121W 9589 00442 0077 +258 +230 172007 008 020 000 00
212230 2617N 09122W 9587 00445 0078 +258 +234 164005 005 019 000 00
212300 2618N 09124W 9589 00443 0079 +257 +230 145005 005 018 000 00
212330 2619N 09126W 9588 00443 0080 +255 +232 154005 006 018 000 00
212400 2620N 09127W 9589 00445 0080 +257 +227 153005 006 016 001 00
212430 2621N 09129W 9589 00445 0081 +256 +233 154005 006 017 000 00
212500 2622N 09131W 9589 00445 0080 +256 +230 161003 004 017 000 00
212530 2622N 09132W 9589 00443 0079 +260 +220 190002 003 017 000 00
212600 2623N 09134W 9589 00443 0079 +261 +219 003002 003 017 000 00
212630 2624N 09135W 9588 00443 0078 +260 +219 006002 003 018 000 00
212700 2625N 09137W 9588 00442 0078 +260 +221 350004 004 018 000 00
212730 2626N 09139W 9589 00442 0077 +261 +220 339005 006 017 000 00
212800 2627N 09140W 9589 00440 0076 +257 +225 332006 006 019 000 00
212830 2628N 09142W 9588 00441 0077 +254 +232 341006 007 021 000 00
212900 2628N 09144W 9589 00442 0078 +255 +231 345006 007 021 000 00
212930 2629N 09145W 9588 00442 0077 +254 +236 341007 007 019 000 00
213000 2630N 09147W 9588 00441 0076 +254 +236 342006 006 019 000 00
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#1020 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:44 pm

The NAM is usually bullish on QPF, at least with winter precip. Are they better when it is liquid?
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