ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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#1041 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:04 am

12z GFS +72 (something off of LA)

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12z GFS +96

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Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1042 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:06 am

That would be Lee, the disturbance in the BOC brewing up. Thread about him in Talking Tropics. Looks like Lee gets his act together Saturday.
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#1043 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:09 am

So far no real note worthy changes from the 6z.
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#1044 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:12 am

About the only thing. At around 90 hours there is a little more ridging to the north and the trough over the mid west is a little flatter... track is maybe 50 miles south of 6z so far.. nothing substantial.
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Re:

#1045 Postby jhpigott » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:13 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So far no real note worthy changes from the 6z.


This is the area some of the other models started turning back west. But by the looks of the 96hr graphic of the 12z GFS still looks to be plenty of a weakness for Katia to escape to the north
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#1046 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:18 am

12z GFS +120 (switched to full color to better visualize the subtle pressure differences)

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1047 Postby Battlebrick » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:18 am

another system coming off Africa?
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Re: Re:

#1048 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:19 am

jhpigott wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So far no real note worthy changes from the 6z.


This is the area some of the other models started turning back west. But by the looks of the 96hr graphic of the 12z GFS still looks to be plenty of a weakness for Katia to escape to the north


yeah but I think its because the GFS is still quite a bit slower than the rest of the models. the other models keep the forward speed up a little long.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1049 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:21 am

12z GFS really crawling between 90-120 hours, not gaining much latitude.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1050 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:23 am

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS really crawling between 90-120 hours, not gaining much latitude.


yeah thats the big difference between it and the other models that are/were showing a west bend. gfs just slows down more than those which gives the next trough more time to pick it up
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1051 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:24 am

wxman57 wrote:Still looks like it's not going to have any significant impact on the NE Caribbean, and it will probably recurve well east of the U.S.
Really? Feeder bands have been known to pack quite a punch. Ask folks in Trinidad & Tobago about the tornadoes caused by a feeder band extending from Hurricane Gabrielle whose eye at the time was over 1000 miles to their north.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1052 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:24 am

12z GFS +144

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1053 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:26 am

Probably still a recurve, but a significant shift W from 06z.

At 156 hrs looks WNW movement again with HP building in?
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1054 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:28 am

Blown Away wrote:Probably still a recurve, but a significant shift W from 06z.


yep past 5 days it still a very slow crawl.. the 6z was already accelerating at this time.

although one thing to note is the complete lack of the trough over the great lakes this time at 144 hours the 6z ... but dont confuse LEE with the trough you can see the trough lifted out.

12z
Image


6z
Image
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#1055 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:31 am

12z GFS +168 (Im lost.. lol)

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#1056 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:35 am

nogaps on board with the west turn as well..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

also notice what it does with LEE... large ridging moving east... end of run could be interesting.
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Re:

#1057 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:38 am

Aric Dunn wrote:nogaps on board with the west turn as well..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

also notice what it does with LEE... large ridging moving east... end of run could be interesting.


12z GFS is out to lunch....

lol finally out of here in 10 days

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#1058 Postby bucman1 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:43 am

WOULD THE STORM IN THE GULF POSSIBLY ACT AS A BLOCKAGE TO LET kATIA RECURVE?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1059 Postby alch97 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:45 am

Why does this remind me of Andrew? Sure looks like the same path on the models. That would be a 1 in a million shot however....
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1060 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:45 am

Heres what I think with the GFS, its arguing with its ensembles and doesnt know whether to send it west or make it a fish, until that has more certianty the GFS is out to lunch
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