ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Nate will be a big wild card in Maria's track, especially if the more recent model runs bringing him north verify.

[HurricaneWarning92]

A little more and it "goes" straight towards S. FL.

[Aric Dunn]

the real important thing to take note of from the discussion....

"MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC."

Think they are finally noticing the models are not initializing the current synoptics very well. the use of the word persistent ( although could claim its reading to much into it) tells me and is somewhat obvious the turn was already supposed to have started ( even as a weak system) it has not.. so models are clearly underestimating the ridging.

I do however find it funny that yesterday 11am they said the same thing the models are in good agreement on a turn well east of bahamas now its the same wording except now just north of.. lol

[SFLcane]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS
TIME...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Shuriken]

Odds of a long track through the Caribbean now definitely not impossible....

[Aric Dunn]

Odds of a long track through the Caribbean now definitely not impossible....

how do you figure.. if it does open up to a wave it will make it farther west probably south of Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

As some have mentioned, Maria's fate may be in the hands of Nate. The GFS has shifted east and brings Nate into the NE GOM...if Nate stays more in the Western GOM, may allow the ridge to build more westward....

the 12Z runs today will be interesting, especially if the GFS shifts west to over Florida or closer to Florida. The ECMWF is on the far right now, so let's see how it shifts.

[Blown Away]

As some have mentioned, Maria's fate may be in the hands of Nate. The GFS has shifted east and brings Nate into the NE GOM...if Nate stays more in the Western GOM, may allow the ridge to build more westward....

the 12Z runs today will be interesting, especially if the GFS shifts west to over Florida or closer to Florida. The ECMWF is on the far right now, so let's see how it shifts.

Yeah that makes sense, but the same GFS run that brings Maria to Bahamas is the same run the brings Nate to the NE GOM?

[Aric Dunn]

As some have mentioned, Maria's fate may be in the hands of Nate. The GFS has shifted east and brings Nate into the NE GOM...if Nate stays more in the Western GOM, may allow the ridge to build more westward....

the 12Z runs today will be interesting, especially if the GFS shifts west to over Florida or closer to Florida. The ECMWF is on the far right now, so let's see how it shifts.

actually the opposite...the reason the ridging builds more is because the cut off low retrogrades more to west allowing more S to SW flow over the eastern gulf and Florida in response a stronger ridge builds NE of the Bahamas turning maria back the W-wnw. the reason Nate moves NE is because the increased Sw flow since the Cut off low is farther west which erodes the ridge over southern TX and mexico.

[cycloneye]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 65.9W or about 8.9 miles (14.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 65.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

[chrisjslucia]

The NHC track centres Maria on Martinique and the cone now stretches down South to include St Lucia and St Vincent. It also has brought the time of arrival forward from Saturday early morning to Friday night. Intrigued to see the outcome of the Recon this afternoon. Time to shop and get petrol!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Odds of a long track through the Caribbean now definitely not impossible....

how do you figure.. if it does open up to a wave it will make it farther west probably south of Hispaniola.

Well, saying that something is "not impossible" is about as non-committal as you can get, so he really doesn't have to figure anything.

[chrisjslucia]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 65.9W or about 8.9 miles (14.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 65.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

And my house is now 30 miles, 50 km away from CPA, using the Storm Carib tool. So much for the comfort of 200+ miles yesterday!! Due here Friday night - I'll let you know how it goes Luis. Gusty must be pretty close now as well. Take care all.

[JtSmarts]

If Maria keeps shifting further south we will have another one of those will she or won't she situations regarding Hispaniola, a forecaster's nightmare.

[cycloneye]

First mission to Maria this afternoon. Dave,are you going to work this first mission?

[Gustywind]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 65.9W or about 8.9 miles (14.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 65.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

And my house is now 30 miles, 50 km away from CPA, using the Storm Carib tool. So much for the comfort of 200+ miles yesterday!! Due here Friday night - I'll let you know how it goes Luis. Gusty must be pretty close now as well. Take care all.

Thanks to keep us informed. Yep... you're right, that's pretty close very close now. If this verifies we could deal with the strongest winds in the northern part of Maria. I think that all the islands between St Lucia and the Northern Leewards should pay attention. Be awared islanders!

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is running.

[Caribwxgirl]

Aric,is very interesting that at 8 AM a TS watch was issued for Guadeloupe and father south Martinique. As you can see,that island is out of the cone. That tells you they will change the track at 11 AM.

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9388 ... w5nlsm.gif

Yep you really hit the nail on the head with that one cycloneye

[Sanibel]

There's something that makes me think the intensity forecast is low for that area at this time of year.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS is just about identical to the 06Z track-wise through 54h.