ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 092001
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 27 20110909
195130 1956N 09352W 8428 01544 0070 +161 +115 351035 036 024 003 03
195200 1956N 09351W 8428 01540 0070 +159 +114 351037 037 025 003 00
195230 1956N 09349W 8426 01539 0072 +151 +116 352036 038 031 008 00
195300 1956N 09347W 8429 01533 0079 +137 +117 358035 038 031 009 03
195330 1956N 09345W 8429 01534 0074 +142 +116 002034 034 030 010 00
195400 1956N 09344W 8425 01536 0075 +140 +114 001034 035 036 013 00
195430 1956N 09342W 8424 01538 0068 +147 +112 358037 038 030 006 00
195500 1956N 09340W 8433 01525 0061 +154 +111 001038 039 029 005 00
195530 1956N 09338W 8427 01530 0060 +152 +111 003039 039 029 003 00
195600 1956N 09337W 8429 01525 0058 +153 +112 009037 038 029 006 00
195630 1956N 09335W 8429 01524 0058 +151 +113 010038 039 027 006 00
195700 1956N 09333W 8426 01522 0048 +160 +114 010038 038 030 002 00
195730 1956N 09332W 8430 01519 0046 +161 +116 011037 037 029 003 00
195800 1956N 09330W 8428 01520 0045 +159 +118 009037 038 032 003 00
195830 1956N 09329W 8430 01515 0043 +161 +121 011037 038 033 003 00
195900 1956N 09327W 8422 01523 0039 +162 +123 011037 038 031 003 00
195930 1956N 09325W 8426 01514 0035 +165 +125 009034 037 029 003 03
200000 1956N 09324W 8429 01510 0032 +167 +128 007032 033 028 001 00
200030 1956N 09322W 8429 01509 0029 +168 +131 004034 034 027 003 00
200100 1956N 09320W 8429 01506 0025 +170 +135 001033 033 028 001 00

[Air Force Met]

Navy sat. pic....Nate appears to be getting better organized...

Appearances can be deceiving. Nate is a mess due to dry air. As I pointed out earlier today, Nate had begun to ingest low PW's into the S and W side of the circulation at all levels...and that is NEVER good for development. I do not look for strengthening of this system anytime soon...if at all. There is a lot of dry air that has to be modified before convection can come back.

BTW...I will be passing through WC on my way to Sweeny later this evening to see the Dogs play...Sweeny Class of '87.

[craptacular]

Thru the center again

URNT15 KNHC 092011
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 28 20110909
200130 1956N 09318W 8427 01506 0024 +166 +140 004034 034 028 002 00
200200 1956N 09317W 8428 01502 0021 +165 +144 004034 035 028 002 03
200230 1956N 09315W 8428 01502 0019 +165 +147 004032 033 026 002 00
200300 1956N 09313W 8428 01498 0015 +169 +150 000029 030 022 001 00
200330 1957N 09311W 8428 01498 0012 +170 +152 355027 027 021 002 00
200400 1957N 09310W 8426 01497 0010 +170 +154 354026 027 020 002 00
200430 1957N 09308W 8430 01490 0008 +166 +155 352027 027 016 003 00
200500 1956N 09306W 8429 01489 0004 +170 +155 352026 027 012 003 00
200530 1957N 09304W 8429 01488 0002 +171 +154 351024 024 008 003 03
200600 1957N 09303W 8429 01486 0000 +170 +154 354022 022 006 004 03
200630 1957N 09301W 8428 01486 9998 +170 +153 356020 021 009 004 00
200700 1957N 09259W 8429 01482 9996 +169 +152 351018 018 003 003 03
200730 1957N 09257W 8429 01481 9995 +170 +150 347015 017 003 003 03
200800 1957N 09256W 8428 01481 9991 +171 +149 346012 013 /// /// 03
200830 1957N 09254W 8427 01479 9990 +171 +149 339010 011 /// /// 03
200900 1958N 09252W 8428 01477 9989 +169 +149 333008 009 /// /// 03
200930 1958N 09250W 8428 01474 9984 +170 +150 321008 009 /// /// 03
201000 1959N 09249W 8429 01470 9985 +169 +151 309005 007 /// /// 03
201030 2000N 09247W 8428 01471 9983 +169 +151 184004 007 /// /// 03
201100 2001N 09246W 8429 01470 9985 +170 +151 150013 016 /// /// 03

[tobol.7uno]

Just an update. I will not be readily available to bring updates but I will get them when I can.

[tobol.7uno]

Just in... Another pass through the center.

[craptacular]

Looks like they may be heading home. I'll wait for final VDM, although it looks like center was just a tad north of last time with 998 mb surface pressure.

URNT15 KNHC 092021
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 29 20110909
201130 2002N 09245W 8425 01477 9985 +170 +152 136019 020 000 003 03
201200 2004N 09245W 8428 01476 9989 +169 +153 131018 019 /// /// 03
201230 2006N 09244W 8428 01477 9991 +170 +154 130018 019 /// /// 03
201300 2006N 09244W 8428 01477 9991 +172 +155 124019 020 /// /// 03
201330 2009N 09243W 8429 01481 9993 +171 +156 119021 022 /// /// 03
201400 2011N 09243W 8428 01485 9995 +170 +157 118023 023 /// /// 03
201430 2013N 09243W 8430 01483 9999 +169 +158 119023 024 /// /// 03
201500 2014N 09242W 8428 01487 0001 +165 +159 117025 025 000 003 03
201530 2016N 09242W 8428 01488 0003 +165 +160 118026 026 000 002 03
201600 2018N 09242W 8428 01490 0006 +165 +160 115027 027 001 003 03
201630 2019N 09241W 8426 01495 0009 +165 +161 116027 028 001 002 03
201700 2021N 09241W 8429 01493 0010 +166 +161 118028 028 002 004 00
201730 2023N 09240W 8429 01496 0011 +165 +160 117030 031 009 004 03
201800 2024N 09240W 8428 01499 0013 +165 +160 116032 032 011 003 00
201830 2026N 09240W 8426 01500 0017 +165 +158 117032 032 020 003 00
201900 2028N 09239W 8429 01501 0020 +165 +157 119033 033 020 004 00
201930 2029N 09239W 8430 01503 0022 +164 +156 115033 034 023 004 00
202000 2031N 09238W 8294 01645 0036 +141 //// 113034 036 025 005 01
202030 2033N 09238W 8004 01955 0027 +146 //// 112038 039 020 002 01
202100 2035N 09237W 7783 02195 0022 +135 //// 116040 041 023 002 01

[craptacular]

URNT12 KNHC 092025
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 09/20:10:20Z
B. 20 deg 00 min N
092 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1398 m
D. 35 kt
E. 266 deg 52 nm
F. 002 deg 39 kt
G. 266 deg 47 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C / 1528 m
J. 17 C / 1527 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0415A NATE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 18:33:10Z

[craptacular]

Next flight scheduled to take off late tonight at 10:30 PM CDT. (NOAA flights were canceled)

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 76
A. 10/06Z
B. AFXXX 0815A NATE
C. 10/0330Z
D. 22.2N 92.9W
E. 10/0530Z TO 10/09Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[tobol.7uno]

[Hurricane Jed]

Probably good its not coming to Texas. Weak system plus dry conditions over the state would likely kill Nate and we'd probably just get a lot of wind which wouldn't be good for the ongoing fires here in Central Texas.

[artist]

WTNT35 KNHC 100250
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...AND NATE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[tobol.7uno]

Anyone know where NHC is getting Sabancuy Radar images? They said it in their discussion... "ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE CURVED BANDING FEATURES ON THE SABANCUY RADAR..."

[artist]

Anyone know where NHC is getting Sabancuy Radar images? They said it in their discussion... "ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE CURVED BANDING FEATURES ON THE SABANCUY RADAR..."

one of the pro mets said they think they have closed it off to outsiders, due to overload, but the NHC has access.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100329
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 01 20110910
031930 3025N 08855W 0149 00017 0169 +225 +088 360000 000 /// /// 03
032000 3025N 08855W 0149 00017 0168 +227 +089 360000 000 /// /// 03
032030 3025N 08855W 0150 ///// 0156 +225 +090 360000 000 /// /// 23
032100 3025N 08855W 0149 ///// 0153 +225 +090 360000 000 /// /// 23
032130 3025N 08855W 0149 ///// 0145 +228 +091 360000 000 /// /// 23
032200 3025N 08855W 0149 ///// 0145 +230 +091 360000 000 /// /// 23
032230 3025N 08855W 0152 ///// 0141 +229 +092 360000 000 /// /// 23
032300 3025N 08855W 0150 ///// 0143 +230 +092 360000 000 /// /// 23
032330 3025N 08855W 0142 ///// 0140 +226 +133 272002 004 /// /// 23
032400 3024N 08856W 0038 00080 0127 +236 +157 258008 008 /// /// 03
032430 3023N 08857W 9799 00274 0120 +221 +144 265009 010 /// /// 03
032500 3022N 08858W 9381 00657 0118 +201 +104 332005 006 /// /// 03
032530 3020N 08859W 9047 00981 0133 +175 +087 352006 006 /// /// 03
032600 3019N 08900W 8724 01291 0141 +148 +075 359005 006 /// /// 03
032630 3018N 08901W 8498 01524 0148 +149 -050 101001 001 /// /// 03
032700 3016N 08903W 8480 01547 0156 +147 -093 353001 002 /// /// 03
032730 3015N 08905W 8489 01534 0153 +147 -093 349002 003 /// /// 03
032800 3013N 08906W 8445 01570 0146 +144 -099 305002 002 /// /// 03
032830 3011N 08908W 8259 01763 0144 +138 -105 307004 005 /// /// 03
032900 3010N 08909W 8049 01977 0140 +128 -155 294004 004 /// /// 03

[artist]

Nates new flight is in the air. Someone take it over please.

[tobol.7uno]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100339
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 02 20110910
032930 3008N 08911W 7825 02212 0137 +116 -181 259003 003 /// /// 03
033000 3006N 08913W 7607 02445 0132 +103 -205 297005 007 /// /// 03
033030 3005N 08914W 7406 02667 0124 +098 -235 295009 009 /// /// 03
033100 3003N 08916W 7244 02852 0119 +091 -247 299009 010 048 006 03
033130 3001N 08918W 7082 03038 0111 +085 -272 292009 010 /// /// 03
033200 2959N 08920W 6914 03235 0104 +078 -288 283012 013 010 000 03
033230 2958N 08921W 6743 03442 0104 +067 -296 273014 014 038 002 03
033300 2956N 08923W 6600 03617 0103 +055 -288 276014 015 065 010 03
033330 2954N 08925W 6456 03797 0105 +041 -233 268016 016 /// /// 03
033400 2952N 08926W 6303 03991 0105 +027 -149 257019 020 /// /// 03
033430 2950N 08926W 6155 04186 0106 +016 -146 256023 025 /// /// 03
033500 2948N 08926W 6030 04351 0097 +009 -141 255027 028 /// /// 03
033530 2945N 08927W 5914 04501 0088 +002 -152 249028 028 /// /// 03
033600 2943N 08927W 5787 04675 0085 -008 -178 242027 028 /// /// 03
033630 2941N 08927W 5671 04835 0081 -015 -207 242026 027 067 001 03
033700 2938N 08927W 5561 04997 0072 -018 -248 242026 026 041 001 03
033730 2936N 08927W 5463 05139 0225 -021 -287 240026 027 /// /// 03
033800 2934N 08927W 5382 05259 0231 -027 -310 243027 027 /// /// 03
033830 2932N 08928W 5302 05377 0238 -034 -329 245027 027 /// /// 03
033900 2929N 08928W 5223 05497 0246 -041 -351 245026 026 /// /// 03

[artist]

someone please pick up this mission into Nate. Thank you in advance.

[artist]

last post by me other than one image for this flight -

URNT15 KNHC 100349
AF303 0515A NATE HDOB 03 20110910
033930 2927N 08928W 5139 05623 0253 -049 -377 244024 025 /// /// 03
034000 2925N 08928W 5063 05741 0261 -057 -396 244024 025 046 004 03
034030 2923N 08928W 4988 05858 0268 -065 -410 247025 025 /// /// 03
034100 2920N 08928W 4915 05972 0274 -072 -419 250025 025 /// /// 03
034130 2918N 08929W 4832 06106 0281 -079 -420 253024 025 /// /// 03
034200 2916N 08929W 4752 06235 0289 -088 -419 253022 023 /// /// 03
034230 2914N 08929W 4679 06355 0297 -096 -423 255022 022 028 000 03
034300 2911N 08929W 4612 06467 0303 -106 -428 255022 022 003 000 03
034330 2909N 08929W 4534 06597 0309 -117 -427 255022 022 /// /// 03
034400 2907N 08930W 4464 06715 0316 -127 -393 255022 023 /// /// 03
034430 2904N 08930W 4395 06835 0322 -134 -368 254025 026 /// /// 03
034500 2902N 08930W 4328 06951 0329 -141 -390 256027 027 /// /// 03
034530 2900N 08930W 4264 07064 0335 -147 -408 250029 030 /// /// 03
034600 2858N 08930W 4197 07184 0341 -156 -413 248030 031 /// /// 03
034630 2856N 08930W 4143 07283 0348 -165 -303 250032 033 /// /// 03
034700 2853N 08931W 4092 07376 0353 -174 -291 252032 032 /// /// 03
034730 2851N 08931W 4038 07475 0358 -183 -261 250034 034 /// /// 03
034800 2849N 08931W 4000 07549 0366 -190 -275 249036 037 /// /// 03
034830 2847N 08931W 3988 07575 0370 -191 -265 248035 035 /// /// 03
034900 2844N 08931W 3994 07566 0371 -190 -267 248035 035 /// /// 03

[artist]