ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[KWT]

90L may be on a collision course with the Yucatan. That may slow down development.

Yucatan is flat on the northern side,is not like Hispanola.

not only that but the coast will probably help to get the western side of any LLC going due to the frictional effects of land.

May actually help to finally get every going combined with the wicked heat content...just depends on whether the shear stays low or not.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yesterday:



Today:


Mind you that's not even a 24 hour interval. Much better organized.

[KWT]

SDF, sure does look like a developing TD it has to be said, however I've seen many a MLC have similar presentations only for recon to find nothing at all at the surface...Dolly 2008 was a prime example of that actually!

I'm not sure what's going on in the lower levels, shame we don't have recon today.

[ROCK]

all of the bouys in the area suggest there really isn't much going on at the surface.
5-10 knot winds from the south reporting from bouys east, west and south of the area.

there is only one buoy and 90L passed it last night...not sure where you are seeing additional buoys out in that area...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I don't want to stir the pot or anything, but what's stopping possible Don from exploding in the Gulf if he develops in the next 24-36 hours? Shear is forecast to be very low, and the waters are crazy warm... What am I missing?

There is an upper trough draped across the Gulf of Mexico, creating relatively unfavorable upper level conditions. Not to mention, the death ridge is also creating unfavorable easterly shear. However, 90L may be able to "throw" enough heat to the upper trough to cause it to split, which takes care of it. This could allow for slightly more favorable upper level conditions, but the winds aren't going to be perfect.

[ROCK]

Show me a Global model that showed this looking as good as it does now. None....This is obviously developing this morning and if it continues that makes 3 out of the 4 storms this season the globals didn't see....A bit concerning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg

Ivan, I think what happened (discounting the jacked up GFS) is that the other globals couldnt latch on due to all the land interaction. With no LLC before DR they had no idea what to do with it.....just my theory of course...

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't want to stir the pot or anything, but what's stopping possible Don from exploding in the Gulf if he develops in the next 24-36 hours? Shear is forecast to be very low, and the waters are crazy warm... What am I missing?

There is an upper trough draped across the Gulf of Mexico, creating relatively unfavorable upper level conditions. Not to mention, the death ridge is also creating unfavorable easterly shear. However, 90L may be able to "throw" enough heat to the upper trough to cause it to split, which takes care of it. This could allow for slightly more favorable upper level conditions, but the winds aren't going to be perfect.

Thanks, I was going mainly by the SHIPS shear forecast with that statement. The GFS and NAM seem to present much different upper-level conditions.

[ROCK]

I don't want to stir the pot or anything, but what's stopping possible Don from exploding in the Gulf if he develops in the next 24-36 hours? Shear is forecast to be very low, and the waters are crazy warm... What am I missing?

There is an upper trough draped across the Gulf of Mexico, creating relatively unfavorable upper level conditions. Not to mention, the death ridge is also creating unfavorable easterly shear. However, 90L may be able to "throw" enough heat to the upper trough to cause it to split, which takes care of it. This could allow for slightly more favorable upper level conditions, but the winds aren't going to be perfect.

The SHIPS would have taken this into account but still shows favorable conditions....we shall see...

[cycloneye]

ROCK,and that land interaction was the cause of why the tropical models were not runned for 48 hours.

[drezee]

I know at least a couple of people visit this board from the NHC...we need a resources permitting flight today...please...there are a lot of taxpayers on this board...

[Ivanhater]

I still do not think there is anything at the surface....yet. That should change later today if it continues to organize.

[SouthDadeFish]

SDF, sure does look like a developing TD it has to be said, however I've seen many a MLC have similar presentations only for recon to find nothing at all at the surface...Dolly 2008 was a prime example of that actually!

I'm not sure what's going on in the lower levels, shame we don't have recon today.

I completely agree. Dolly and 90L are relatively the same location when Dolly became classified. Dolly was 18.4N 84.2W.

[Nederlander]

Actually mikey we are fine here in SETX in regards to the drought. Our KBDI numbers are the best in the state. We've gotten good rain lately. I would rather see south central TX get this system..

For you maybe, but not us. Houston-Galveston is still WAY WAY behind in drought numbers.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=drought

And looking at these numbers, you are not doing that well either.

Edit: under KBDI, yes, but under the Drought Index, no.

His location said Beaumont, so when I said SETX, i was referring to mostly Jefferson/Orange counties. Sorry for not being specific, next time I will include lat/lon coordinates. Also, yes of course we are still way under normal rainfall totals, and I know the Houston area is too, but I dont really think you understand how bad the conditions are out in West, Central, and Southern Texas. They need it way worse than we do. (we being Jefferson county).. geez when did everyone become so persnickety on here.. ok back to model talk..

[ROCK]

I still do not think there is anything at the surface....yet. That should change later today if it continues to organize.

yeah we will know it once 90L hits the surface...be like a bomb going off..

[Aric Dunn]

Very little at the surface.. but some weak rotation around 85 west.

[drezee]

I still do not think there is anything at the surface....yet. That should change later today if it continues to organize.

Looking at the high res visibles...I think there are two competing areas of low pressure (not LLCs yet) one near 22/82 and one near 20/83. Once one takes over, it will pop. Sort of like Erin from 1995, two areas of low pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

But I would imagine we get a more defined LLC develop associated with the deep convection near the isle of youth later today.

[Outlaw JW]

Actually mikey we are fine here in SETX in regards to the drought. Our KBDI numbers are the best in the state. We've gotten good rain lately. I would rather see south central TX get this system..

For you maybe, but not us. Houston-Galveston is still WAY WAY behind in drought numbers.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=drought

And looking at these numbers, you are not doing that well either.

Edit: under KBDI, yes, but under the Drought Index, no.

His location said Beaumont, so when I said SETX, i was referring to mostly Jefferson/Orange counties. Sorry for not being specific, next time I will include lat/lon coordinates. Also, yes of course we are still way under normal rainfall totals, and I know the Houston area is too, but I dont really think you understand how bad the conditions are out in West, Central, and Southern Texas. They need it way worse than we do. (we being Jefferson county).. geez when did everyone become so persnickety on here.. ok back to model talk..

We've had about two inches of rain since the end of last August with a 1/2 inch coming in last Friday. Cedar or Juniper trees are dying. We need the rain as a drought buster.

[cycloneye]

wxman57, what are you thoughts today on 90L?

[bbadon]

It looks to me an LLC is forming just at west edge of the convection associated with the MLC. Also It looks to me the MLC is trying to allign with the developing LLC. Anyone else see this?