ATL: IRENE - Models

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Riptide
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1061 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:56 pm

More 18z GFS ensembles bring this east of Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1062 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:09 pm

Riptide wrote:More 18z GFS ensembles bring this east of Florida.


I take the 18z with the smaller grain of salt compared to the other runs. If 0z shows it then it would be something to keep a close eye on, IMO. Didn't most of the ensembles in the 12z show central gulf or am I thinking of the Euro?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1063 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

Lots of activity around the Florida Peninsula.


lots of land too
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1064 Postby fci » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:06 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Image

Lots of activity around the Florida Peninsula.


lots of land too

I know that you are waiting for the first advisory to have South Florida in the 5 day cone so you can feel safe. :D
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#1065 Postby Turtle » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:11 pm

Why is the bottom path on the image above (with the black triangles) showing a straight line West in Central America? New GFS should come outs soon.
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Re:

#1066 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:12 pm

Turtle wrote:Why is the bottom path on the image above (with the black triangles) showing a straight line West in Central America? New GFS should come outs soon.


that's simply the current motion extrapolated out.
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#1067 Postby yzerfan » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:15 pm

The black triangle XTRP is simply the line the storm would take if it continued to move in the exact same direction it's currently moving without being affected by any other ridges, weather features, etc. It's not a useful model for forecast purposes, but more of an error check deal like the CLP5 model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1068 Postby DIwestender » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:32 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
Riptide wrote:More 18z GFS ensembles bring this east of Florida.


I take the 18z with the smaller grain of salt compared to the other runs. If 0z shows it then it would be something to keep a close eye on, IMO. Didn't most of the ensembles in the 12z show central gulf or am I thinking of the Euro?



Just curious as to why the 18z models would be treated with less consideration than the 0z models?

Thanks in advance. Thought I'd get that question in before the GFS model rolls out. I know at that point nobody is in the mood for teaching!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1069 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:36 pm

DIwestender wrote:
Just curious as to why the 18z models would be treated with less consideration than the 0z models?


0z and 12z models take account fresh data, like environmental conditions and how well the current storm is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1070 Postby DIwestender » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:38 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
DIwestender wrote:
Just curious as to why the 18z models would be treated with less consideration than the 0z models?


0z and 12z models take account fresh data, like environmental conditions and how well the current storm is.



Thank you!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1071 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:41 pm

Tonight's 00Z GFS should be rolling by now. Where are Micheal and ROCK??
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#1072 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:42 pm

12 Hours 00Z GFS:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1073 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:44 pm

looks like the GFS still cant initialize this right, its like 1.5 degrees too far south
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1074 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:looks like the GFS still cant initialize this right, its like 1.5 degrees too far south


It is fine..it is showing a broad are of low pressure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1075 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:47 pm

My bad, was going by where the L is
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1076 Postby lonelymike » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:47 pm

: :uarrow: Don't u ever sleep Michael? :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1077 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:50 pm

lonelymike wrote:: :uarrow: Don't u ever sleep Michael? :eek:


Not during hurricane season :wink:
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#1078 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:52 pm

30 hours, starting to consolidate:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1079 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:52 pm

36 Hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical036.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1080 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:55 pm

42 hours

Image
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