ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Latest data from bouy 41040 suggests pretty strong winds.

Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
1450 E ( 85 deg ) 27.8 kts
1440 NE ( 55 deg ) 25.8 kts
1430 NE ( 42 deg ) 24.5 kts
1420 NE ( 46 deg ) 23.7 kts
1410 NE ( 40 deg ) 22.9 kts
1400 NE ( 41 deg ) 22.5 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1439 31.1 kts E ( 80 deg true )

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
1439 E ( 90 deg ) 38.9 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[expat2carib]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 65.9W or about 8.9 miles (14.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 65.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

And my house is now 30 miles, 50 km away from CPA, using the Storm Carib tool. So much for the comfort of 200+ miles yesterday!! Due here Friday night - I'll let you know how it goes Luis. Gusty must be pretty close now as well. Take care all.

What a difference a day makes.... 24 little hours... Yesterday I was 2 mile from the center and now I'm 100 miles away. Good luck Chris, Luis, Gusty and all the others.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.0N, 64.1W or about 98.8 miles (159.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 54.8 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:48PM AST).

[Aric Dunn]

12Z GFS is just about identical to the 06Z track-wise through 54h.

yeah a littel stronger maria and a stronger more pronounced ridge/flow from the building ridge NE of the bahamas at 72 hours vs the 6z. may end up a little more west if the ridging holds..

[cycloneye]

Todays TCPOD for Maria.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM MARIA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 09/12Z,18Z               A. 10/00Z,06Z
       B. AFXXX 0214A MARIA        B. AFXXX 0314A MARIA
       C. 09/0930Z                 C. 09/2230Z
       D. 13.8N 57.3W              D. 14.5N 60.5W
       E. 09/1130Z TO 09/18Z       E. 09/2330Z TO 10/06Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT         F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. MARIA: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.




[rainstorm]

further west than 06z?

[Jimsot]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 65.9W or about 8.9 miles (14.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 65.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

And my house is now 30 miles, 50 km away from CPA, using the Storm Carib tool. So much for the comfort of 200+ miles yesterday!! Due here Friday night - I'll let you know how it goes Luis. Gusty must be pretty close now as well. Take care all.

What a difference a day makes.... 24 little hours... Yesterday I was 2 mile from the center and now I'm 100 miles away. Good luck Chris, Luis, Gusty and all the others.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.0N, 64.1W or about 98.8 miles (159.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 54.8 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:48PM AST).

Same here. I went from 3 miles at 11:00PM last night to 108 miles at 11:00AM today. What a roller coaster forecast. I will wait until tomorrow but I do not think we will need to shutter up now. Hopefully Maria fizzles but everyone keep watching!

[Aric Dunn]

further west than 06z?

right now at 87 hours.. its in the exact same spot as 6z

[Dave]

I'm on Nate right now cycloneye, if we have someone else availble we'll ask them to take the first legs of Maria until I can clear Nate if that works for you.

[Aric Dunn]

at 108 hours its the same longitude as 6z but just farther north. turn in the same spot.. just a little faster this run is the only difference. synoptic reasoning the same.. more ridging NE of Bahamas vs yesterdays runs of turning well east of the bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

12z loop. only problem with GFS again is the current motion and when it starts the turn WNW.. it has it a good 100 miles north of the NHC forecast track as it crosses the islands.. so since she is till heading due west will likely continue this run is out the window for track but the synoptic trend reasoning after 3 days is ok.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SFLcane]

12z loop.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Recurve NW into the gap it appears. Irene 2

[meriland23]

Nate is serious stationary for pushing 90 hours right along texas and la

[rainstorm]

i see. its at least a threat for NC now. i also notice nate is further west.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So with the exception of the islands dealing with it, for the US still the same results for before the west shift a recurve east of us.

[SFLcane]

Its actually further eastward then the 06z..Might miss eastcoast completely.

[Aric Dunn]

even she slows way down a drifts north for a couple days.. 150 hours just drfitng..

gfs still not initializing the current ridging very well so its should change more as time goes on to reflect this.

[AdamFirst]

so Maria gets shunted off to the northeast by a trough/weakness while Nate stays stationary in the NW Gulf...

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps shifted south early on.. then hard right turn as thr cut off low opens into a trough and diggs down. out to 72 hours seems very reasonable with a much more southerly track after about 90 hrs the trough seems a little suspect...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

I guess for Maria... 13 is her lucky number... ( 13N that is) still riding that line..

[xironman]

Nothing is going to land fall north of Georgia with those westerlies.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.