ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

It looks to me an LLC is forming just at west edge of the convection associated with the MLC. Also It looks to me the MLC is trying to allign with the developing LLC. Anyone else see this?

I do see some weak inflow coming in to the SW side of the complex but microwave is not showing much at the surface...it is in the beginning stages of forming one however.

Rapid Scan

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... width=1000

Microwave

[Ptarmigan]

90L looks better organized than yesterday. Since it is small, it has a better chance at becoming organized into a tropical storm or even hurricane.

[Portastorm]

Personally, I would love to see 90L develop into a slow-moving tropical storm and rain itself out over south Texas. The conditions here in south-central Texas mirror what is going on with our friends in Del Rio. Brutal heat and severe drought.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

90L looks better organized than yesterday. Since it is small, it has a better chance at becoming organized into a tropical storm or even hurricane.

wxman 57 was saying that it could do that...a few days ago..if my memory serves me..

[South Texas Storms]

Personally, I would love to see 90L develop into a slow-moving tropical storm and rain itself out over south Texas. The conditions here in south-central Texas mirror what is going on with our friends in Del Rio. Brutal heat and severe drought.

I agree Porta. I really hope that happens.

[NDG]

Regarding upper level conditions once it gets in the GOM, I now think that if it stays far enough south it may stay away from the Death Ridge's strongest easterly shear tentacles. It may not develope the best outflow set up especially in its NE quadrant due to the easterly UL winds but relative windshear may only get only around 10 knots possibly , with the system moving along westward in the same direction of the UL winds.

[Tireman4]

His location said Beaumont, so when I said SETX, i was referring to mostly Jefferson/Orange counties. Sorry for not being specific, next time I will include lat/lon coordinates. Also, yes of course we are still way under normal rainfall totals, and I know the Houston area is too, but I dont really think you understand how bad the conditions are out in West, Central, and Southern Texas. They need it way worse than we do. (we being Jefferson county).. geez when did everyone become so persnickety on here.. ok back to model talk..[/quote]

I was not being persnickety, it is just that SETX encompasses a great deal of territory. I do realize how bad Central and West Texas are right now. The lake and river levels validate. I do apologize on this, but it just seemed to be broadstroked.

[MGC]

Looking much better organized this morning. Land interaction was really holding it back the past few days. Shear looks low over the disturbance and some cyclonic turning is evident on the visable loop....might be another quick developer like Cindy was.....MGC

[wxman57]

90L looks better organized than yesterday. Since it is small, it has a better chance at becoming organized into a tropical storm or even hurricane.

wxman 57 was saying that it could do that...a few days ago..if my memory serves me..

As a matter of fact, this is what I said:
Friday afternoon (approaching Caribbean):
We could see a Texas hurricane threat late next week. MIMIC TPW loop suggests good rotation and quite a bit of moisture. Development chances down the road may be greater than 50%, but probably not for 3-5 days.

Saturday evening:
I think that development chances next 48 hours are minimal, perhaps 5%. But wait until it reaches the NW Caribbean in 3 days when convergence increases. That's when development chances go up considerably.
===========

It's behaving as I suspected it might. Slowing down, convergence increasing, possible hurricane threat to lower TX coast late this week (Friday). I think the LLC is starting to develop. Buoy west of the disturbance has had a light north wind last few hours. Low cloud movement also suggests the beginnings of an LLC formation. Good chance recon will find a TD tomorrow afternoon, maybe even a TS. And if it was to develop tomorrow or even early on Thursday then it may have a good chance of reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall, which may well be on the lower TX coast (possibly as far north as Matagorda, but I'd say south of Corpus for now). Development chances 60%.

[ROCK]

90L looks better organized than yesterday. Since it is small, it has a better chance at becoming organized into a tropical storm or even hurricane.

wxman 57 was saying that it could do that...a few days ago..if my memory serves me..

As a matter of fact, this is what I said:
Friday afternoon (approaching Caribbean):
We could see a Texas hurricane threat late next week. MIMIC TPW loop suggests good rotation and quite a bit of moisture. Development chances down the road may be greater than 50%, but probably not for 3-5 days.

Saturday evening:
I think that development chances next 48 hours are minimal, perhaps 5%. But wait until it reaches the NW Caribbean in 3 days when convergence increases. That's when development chances go up considerably.
===========

It's behaving as I suspected it might. Slowing down, convergence increasing, possible hurricane threat to lower TX coast late this week (Friday). I think the LLC is starting to develop. Buoy west of the disturbance has had a light north wind last few hours. Low cloud movement also suggests the beginnings of an LLC formation. Good chance recon will find a TD tomorrow afternoon, maybe even a TS. And if it was to develop tomorrow or even early on Thursday then it may have a good chance of reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall, which may well be on the lower TX coast (possibly as far north as Matagorda, but I'd say south of Corpus for now). Development chances 60%.

Thanks WXMN.....and they stopped running models on this for a few days...

[GCANE]

Rain rate is picking up now.

[lrak]

Corpus? I thought this was a west moving storm, and N. Mexico as usual? Ack...hurricane no power and crummy surf.

[cycloneye]

Corpus? I thought this was a west moving storm, and N. Mexico as usual? Ack...hurricane no power and crummy surf.

Apart from what you mentioned,you will like some high swells right?

[Portastorm]

Corpus? I thought this was a west moving storm, and N. Mexico as usual? Ack...hurricane no power and crummy surf.

Easy Karl ... e-a-s-y! We have a long ways to go before we start using the "H" word, let alone one strong enough to knock out power, etc.

[Tireman4]

Corpus? I thought this was a west moving storm, and N. Mexico as usual? Ack...hurricane no power and crummy surf.

Easy Karl ... e-a-s-y! We have a long ways to go before we start using the "H" word, let alone one strong enough to knock out power, etc.

Time to get the Blue Goose swilling PWC folks together on this. I wonder when they will gather for their tropical summit on GOM future/maybe storms?

[Portastorm]

Corpus? I thought this was a west moving storm, and N. Mexico as usual? Ack...hurricane no power and crummy surf.

Easy Karl ... e-a-s-y! We have a long ways to go before we start using the "H" word, let alone one strong enough to knock out power, etc.

Time to get the Blue Goose swilling PWC folks together on this. I wonder when they will gather for their tropical summit on GOM future/maybe storms?

The vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center know their limits.

Tropical weather forecasting is left to the experts like the NHC and Wxman57.

[lrak]

Sorry for jumping the gun, but Corpus Christi mentioned by Wxman57 got me pumped. The swell in S Padre should be BIG.

http://www.spadre.com/surfgallery.htm

[KWT]

Hmmm it does look like its trying to get things going, we do need to watch out for a LLC given the convection is holding nicely and the system looks pretty good with a tight looking MLC.

If I was the NHC I'd go for 50% now, kinda hard to ignore its presentation, esp as its looking like Bret did just before it formed and they were way too low with that one as well...

[RL3AO]

You can see the LL convergence starting to increase. Southerly winds from the south and easterly winds from the east.

[djmikey]

Wow...Thanks for the info guys. I guess your right, anything can happen with these systems. It all depends on the high over the Gulf and the strength of 90L....Shocked that my question caused such a rift. Apologies sent... :-/