ATL: EMILY - Remnants

['CaneFreak]

Haha...I told ya'll 15 pages back they are going to wait until tomorrow to classify this thing...its too broad...give it some time to consolidate and prepare for a cat 2 or 3 by tuesday evening...

Edit: NOT trying to say I told you so but I certainly could not pick out a well defined center today and that is a problem when you are writing advisories...I can hear the advisory now: There are actually two centers of low level circulation with TD #5...one near 45 degrees West and another more prominent center near 49 degrees West...haha...

Can you imagine for a moment if 91L doesn't develop at all after all the hype of the models,having a well defined low,warm waters,not a lot of shear and not tons of dry air,how the forum would turn into?

[wzrgirl1]

I also said TD by Sunday Morning, TS by the evening and Hurricane by Tuesday. Let's see what happens.

[wjs3]

Just want to be clear about DMIN and DMAX. I studied this at Penn State. The main reason for stronger thunderstorm intensity at night is that during the day incoming solar radiation heats the tops of the thunderstorms. That makes the difference in temperature between the surface and upper levels smaller - thus weaker thunderstorms. At night, especially late into the night, the lack of incoming solar radiation allows the thunderstorm tops to cool very nicely, and this makes a greater temp difference between the surface and the tops of thunderstorms, encouraging further upward growth in the convection.

Oh sure...throw around Penn State...

Nice to see you, and nice explanation of nocturnal cloud top cooling. I remember in 101 (which I took in the Summer of 2005, so there was enormous tropical activity), this was a "guru" type question. No one got it, but you can imagine it came up quite a bit in 241 that fall!

[wjs3]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yes, but THEY'RE the ones making the call to upgrade. They're basically saying they plan to upgrade on the next advisory time when they go 100%. I would like to see a separate agency determine the classification, someone who's not making the development forecast. That would be interesting, but it'll never happen.

90% doesn't mean it'll be classified by 10pm CDT this evening, just by 10PM Monday evening. Wait for it to slow down tomorrow as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. That's when convergence will increase and it'll take off.

wxman57, I love this point. The same agency forecasting and validating means that in...let's just say in "judgment calls"...the books can be easily cooked and forecast validations look awesome. It may have been a brilliant political move by the NHC to change to this type of forecast a few years ago...the perfect forecast to be held to is one you control the call on, huh?

You're right re: separate agency. It'll never happen.

[Sanibel]

Could be stair-stepping NW again now that the lower level is visible.

[ROCK]

really stretched out some....looks like the low out front took over. looked better earlier with its consolidation and convection. You can see the dry air out front dragging into the circulation.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

['CaneFreak]

Agreed with both points here...I really think the convergence NEAR the center will pick up tomorrow when this thing slows the heck down near 55W...its just moving too fast and is too broad right now...low level vorticity maximum still spans 4 or 5 degrees of longitude...and there is still some mid level dry air around the system that the intensity models did not see...I expect that this storm will not be an easy call for recurve next week either...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yes, but THEY'RE the ones making the call to upgrade. They're basically saying they plan to upgrade on the next advisory time when they go 100%. I would like to see a separate agency determine the classification, someone who's not making the development forecast. That would be interesting, but it'll never happen.

90% doesn't mean it'll be classified by 10pm CDT this evening, just by 10PM Monday evening. Wait for it to slow down tomorrow as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. That's when convergence will increase and it'll take off.

wxman57, I love this point. The same agency forecasting and validating means that in...let's just say in "judgment calls"...the books can be easily cooked and forecast validations look awesome. It may have been a brilliant political move by the NHC to change to this type of forecast a few years ago...the perfect forecast to be held to is one you control the call on, huh?

You're right re: separate agency. It'll never happen.

[wzrgirl1]

Well looks as if the board is not quite active tonight, so I guess I will save my energy for the coming week. I might need it. Could wake up to a TD in the morning. Have a good night ya'all!!!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Guys....just using model consensus here. Wxman47 has been firm on it. The storm has already been basically trending out to sea.


Your welcome to believe whatever it is you want to believe yall

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

['CaneFreak]

I love the "smoke and mirrors" approach here... This thing does not even have a well defined center yet and you are already declaring it a fish because a few models are "hinting" at a weakness? OK...that makes 100 % perfect sense...

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

Even the NOGAPS has shifted right and now east of Florida. Very close to Puerto Rico though.

['CaneFreak]

See the post above ^^^^^

Guys....just using model consensus here. Wxman47 has been firm on it. The storm has already been basically trending out to sea.


Your welcome to believe whatever it is you want to believe yall

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

wxman57, I love this point. The same agency forecasting and validating means that in...let's just say in "judgment calls"...the books can be easily cooked and forecast validations look awesome. It may have been a brilliant political move by the NHC to change to this type of forecast a few years ago...the perfect forecast to be held to is one you control the call on, huh?

You're right re: separate agency. It'll never happen.

I'm not suggesting there is anything funny going on at the NHC, by any means, now. I know and respect the NHC forecssters, they're great mets. Just saying that if I was a forecaster predicting when I was going to declare something had developed, then it would be a lot easier.

[Weatherfreak000]

I love the "smoke and mirrors" approach here...that is the gatorcane I have come to know and hate Why don't you try and use your head for once? This thing does not even have a well defined center yet and you are already declaring it a fish because a few models are "hinting" at a weakness? OK...that makes 100 % perfect sense...

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

Even the NOGAPS has shifted right and now east of Florida. Very close to Puerto Rico though.

Canefreak, Gatorcane's point is the models have gone from slightly divergent (Some solutions making future TD5 being a POTENTIAL (still insure) U.S. threat but mostly settled on a recurve solution.


Since then, model guidance has tightened...no doubt about it. Recent model cone is fully fixated on a solution out to sea and in my experience this can be trusted.

Even when even almost every model sent Katrina across SFL the GFDL was the lone model that sniffed out the WSW solution. Without a differing solution the forecast becomes that much more confident.


Edit: I'm not...sure what your getting at. I have seen model guidance evidence that suggests even if 91L gets into the Caribbean it will likely still be lifted North. If your counting on the models being wrong and this NOT developing at all, I can see the scenario changing then.

[RL3AO]

Convection redeveloping as expected. Soon everyone can get back on the "looks like a TD" bandwagon.

[Recurve]

Can you imagine for a moment if 91L doesn't develop at all after all the hype of the models,having a well defined low,warm waters,not a lot of shear and not tons of dry air,how the forum would turn into?

Sure -- but we've never been wrong before, right?
For the islands' sake we can hope development if any is slow.

I know I get fooled by watching loops. It tricks the brain into thinking that things that take 24 hours can happen in 15 seconds.

[jinftl]

True, but even the Katrina-savvy GFDL wasn't predicting the WSW across Miami-Dade scenario more than 144 hours out....that was much closer in, and an organized LLC had already developed...just sayin'....

I love the "smoke and mirrors" approach here... This thing does not even have a well defined center yet and you are already declaring it a fish because a Trfew models are "hinting" at a weakness? OK...that makes 100 % perfect sense...

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

Even the NOGAPS has shifted right and now east of Florida. Very close to Puerto Rico though.

Canefreak, Gatorcane's point is the models have gone from slightly divergent (Some solutions making future TD5 being a U.S. threat but mostly settled on a recurve solution.


Since then, model guidance has tightened...no doubt about it. Recent model cone is fully fixated on a solution out to sea and in my experience this can be trusted.

Even when even almost every model sent Katrina across SFL the GFDL was the lone model that sniffed out the WSW solution. Without a differing solution the forecast becomes that much more confident.

['CaneFreak]

You are still playing devil's advocate here...the models could ALL physically shift left tomorrow and then you will be sorry that you missed the point that I was making. I have seen it dozens of times over. But, please, feel free to ignore me. I am just a scientist trying to figure this out like everyone else. I just don't like poor arguments because that is just poor science...that's all

I love the "smoke and mirrors" approach here... This thing does not even have a well defined center yet and you are already declaring it a fish because a few models are "hinting" at a weakness? OK...that makes 100 % perfect sense...

Models are definitely screaming "weakness!" over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic.

Even the NOGAPS has shifted right and now east of Florida. Very close to Puerto Rico though.

Canefreak, Gatorcane's point is the models have gone from slightly divergent (Some solutions making future TD5 being a U.S. threat but mostly settled on a recurve solution.


Since then, model guidance has tightened...no doubt about it. Recent model cone is fully fixated on a solution out to sea and in my experience this can be trusted.

Even when even almost every model sent Katrina across SFL the GFDL was the lone model that sniffed out the WSW solution. Without a differing solution the forecast becomes that much more confident.

[ozonepete]

Can you imagine for a moment if 91L doesn't develop at all after all the hype of the models,having a well defined low,warm waters,not a lot of shear and not tons of dry air,how the forum would turn into?

Sure -- but we've never been wrong before, right?
For the islands' sake we can hope development if any is slow.

I know I get fooled by watching loops. It tricks the brain into thinking that things that take 24 hours can happen in 15 seconds.

LOL. Amen.

[Weatherfreak000]

I think your misunderstanding the situation we face here. The weakness models VERY prominently are picking up on will likely pick up 91L whenever it develops. UNLESS it doesn't, and travels through the graveyard.

I understand your point, but it's too situational, and with 80% and such an impressive look, it's hard to believe this won't be classifed tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Ok to both of you above,let's leave it there and discuss about the model scenarios without getting into personal things.