ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 30°C

Once it gets closer to the LA coast water temps will only go up. they are sitting at 90* in some places offshore.

[Dave]

Wide area for reference:

[KWT]

The only good thing is the heat content isn't that amazing close to the coast. Its good enough for a few days but if this thing just sits there its going to upwell itself into problems...

Of course by that time it could well be a hurricane knocking on the door anyway and any upwelling would be too late.

[ConvergenceZone]

The only good thing is the heat content isn't that amazing close to the coast. Its good enough for a few days but if this thing just sits there its going to upwell itself into problems...

Of course by that time it could well be a hurricane knocking on the door anyway and any upwelling would be too late.

Do you think they will go hurricane prediction on the first advisory KWT? I think they will stick with a strong tropical storm.

[BigB0882]

They went with Lee or TD?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012240
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 39 20110901
223030 2647N 09004W 6160 04221 0058 +061 +031 127007 008 018 000 00
223100 2648N 09001W 6159 04220 0060 +060 +015 144008 008 019 000 00
223130 2648N 08959W 6159 04221 0060 +061 +016 148009 009 019 000 00
223200 2648N 08956W 6160 04221 0060 +060 +016 154007 008 025 000 00
223230 2649N 08954W 6160 04218 0058 +061 +015 137007 007 023 000 00
223300 2649N 08951W 6159 04219 0058 +061 +015 148006 006 021 000 00
223330 2649N 08948W 6160 04218 0062 +059 +013 167008 009 022 000 00
223400 2650N 08946W 6159 04220 0065 +059 +013 178010 011 029 003 00
223430 2650N 08943W 6159 04222 0062 +061 +012 176010 010 029 001 00
223500 2651N 08941W 6160 04221 0062 +061 +011 184010 011 024 000 00
223530 2651N 08938W 6161 04220 0063 +060 +013 191010 011 024 000 00
223600 2651N 08936W 6160 04221 0072 +054 +023 183011 012 022 002 00
223630 2652N 08933W 6160 04221 0065 +058 +027 169010 012 022 000 00
223700 2652N 08930W 6160 04221 0067 +057 +023 164014 015 022 000 00
223730 2653N 08928W 6161 04218 0064 +057 +023 166014 015 023 000 00
223800 2653N 08925W 6161 04217 0065 +056 +024 164014 016 026 000 03
223830 2653N 08923W 6160 04220 0063 +058 +027 143009 009 036 001 00
223900 2653N 08920W 6161 04219 0061 +059 +031 135009 009 035 000 00
223930 2652N 08918W 6161 04220 0062 +057 +054 159008 009 035 001 00
224000 2652N 08915W 6162 04216 0067 +052 //// 179006 008 037 001 01

NOAA2 Mission Over - Kermits going home.

[HenkL]

Thanks for the effort on this recon mission, Dave. And I think it is great to have you on board as a staff member for this forum

[Dave]

Next Scheduled Mission:

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

[WeatherGuesser]

Hmm, will we have a spaghetti track?

Maybe one that looks like it does in the pan while you're still boiling it.

[hurricanebuoy]

Is it possible that the center could reform farther South and East where the big ball of convection is firing?

[tolakram]

Live 25 frame visible loop, rapid capture: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

copy of latest image

[KWT]

Do you think they will go hurricane prediction on the first advisory KWT? I think they will stick with a strong tropical storm.

Tough call, they may go upto 60kts, but then again it all depends on what tjhe other guidence says really and how fast the NHC take this inland...

[Dave]

Next Scheduled Mission...

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT


Will need help on this one due to the hour. Anybody, everybody's welcome to take a mission.....we've got 7 set for tomorrow, plenty go go around. Thanks everyone!

[craptacular]

It looks like there is another vortex more to the NE, with extrapolated SLP 1007; interesting.

As soon as they went through the center, they jumped up a few hundred meters in altitude when all the numbers started going crazy. They hung around at 775 for 10 minutes, then boogied up to 4000+, presumably heading for home.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The only good thing is the heat content isn't that amazing close to the coast. Its good enough for a few days but if this thing just sits there its going to upwell itself into problems...

Of course by that time it could well be a hurricane knocking on the door anyway and any upwelling would be too late.

Im thinking that as well. By the time it could have a negative impact it will be too late. KWT what do you think about dry air getting entrained form Texas into the western and southern flanks of this and choking it out. have seen numerous system come around here and when getting close to landfall they suck in the drier air from land and knock them down a notch or two. Was thinking this could be a problem for it as it will be drifting around for a few days.

[cycloneye]

They went with Lee or TD?

Not yet known,but special advisory should be released shortly.

[KWT]

CM, also a possible solution, but I think in truth most of the action will be on the northern and eastern flank anyway regardless of how strong it gets, maybe like gordon from 2000.

[Dave]

Thanks for the effort on this recon mission, Dave. And I think it is great to have you on board as a staff member for this forum

Thanks Henkl..! I don't have to think about a haircut this month...that was a tough one!

[HenkL]

You are right, Craptacular, my fault.

[maxx9512]

Navy site lists this as 13L thirteen, so Tropical storm correct?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/ATL/13L.THIRTEEN/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html