ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

Do you guys think this could develop before July is done? Imo, its doing pretty well, i dont see why not.

[KWT]

Yeah RL3AO, Wxman57 did say he thought there were signs of the beginning of a LLc...

[ROCK]

the GOM is ripe...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

I wouldnt underestimate the potential here. TS likely but with time over these types of waters? a forecasters worst case scenario is a developing system who has time to jump from TS to a major. Warnings would be useless. Time to evac coastal towns would be at a minimum...We cannot predict intensity very well as we all know...Just sayin...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Do you guys think this could develop before July is done? Imo, its doing pretty well, i dont see why not.

Well, considering that we have 5 more days, counting today before the month ends, then yes we have a chance to see Don form now into this weekend.

[petit_bois]

convection disipating quite a bit over the last few hours...

[Ivanhater]

GFS showed nothing but a few sprinkles the past few days in the NW Caribbean...look at it now. Now the GFS shows basically nothing in the Gulf while we could possibly see a hurricane....what a joke. SMH

[Ptarmigan]

the GOM is ripe...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

I wouldnt underestimate the potential here. TS likely but with time over these types of waters? a forecasters worst case scenario is a developing system who has time to jump from TS to a major. Warnings would be useless. Time to evac coastal towns would be at a minimum...We cannot predict intensity very well as we all know...Just sayin...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

90L is quite small and if conditions are right over Gulf of Mexico, it could rapidly intensify, considering its size. The Bay of Campeche is very favorable for rapid intensification. Yes, I know large hurricanes too can undergo rapid intensification, but it is the smaller ones that do. It is too early to tell at this point and if it becomes Tropical Depression #4, than we would have a better idea. Never say never.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TexWx]

Wx, our ridge being parked, what would allow this "possibly as far north as Matagorda."

Thanks in advance.

[HurricaneBrain]

[Tireman4]

Wx, our ridge being parked, what would allow this "possibly as far north as Matagorda."

Thanks in advance.

I am so not Wxman 57..but I thought I read it might go farther east than first advertised...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS RATHER DISORGANIZED
AND THE NAM/GFS SEEM TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER
TOP THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WAVE DOES
APPROACH THE W GULF AND RIO GRANDE LATE FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD MAINLY BE LOCATED OVER THE SE U.S. BUT MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF EXPANDING EASTWARD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

Michael I noticed that too. It seems like the GFS still has no clue what is going on down there right now...

[ronjon]

From Jeff Masters Blog today:

NHC Invest 90L, Born Again

Invest 90L spiked in thunderstorm activity and circulation yesterday, leading NHC to re-invest the system. 90L is still south of Cuba moving ever-so-slowly to the west. While low level (850mb) circulation has increased since yesterday morning, the system is tilted southeast with height. This is likely due to the westerly wind shear it's facing right now. As the system moves into the Gulf, shear will become more favorable (if there's shear present, easterly is better than westerly). The wave is still moist and moisture is expected to remain high (4 to 5.5 g/kg specific humidity) as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.

Again this morning, none of the models are suggesting meaningful development of Invest 90L. However, the GFS (finally) has come around to resolving the circulation at all. Dr. Rob Carver and I spoke this morning, and we came to the conclusion that the lack of observations in this region, combined with the small size of the system, is causing the models to not have the best handle on the situation. The Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for 18z (2pm EDT) tomorrow, after which we could see the models starting to favor development again. Today the Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I agree with that, but I also think that beyond 48 hours this wave is going to have a better shot at developing a closed circulation at the surface.

[tolakram]

Speed this up, dropping the first few dark frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Am I wrong to see what might be a LLC further north, or on the north side of the main blob?

[KWT]

Previous blob decaying and moving WSW at a decent clip, new convection starting to go up where the last one was...

I'm not sure but looking at the upper flow, I think maybe shear is starting to increase nearby this system again but we'll have to wait and see how this evolves, this system is ok for now but something maybe to keep an eye on, esp given its threading the eye of the shear needle as it is.

Just waiting for code orange!

[GCANE]

Nice looking warm core.

[tolakram]

In reference to my post above, near this circle.

[Ivanhater]

Speed this up, dropping the first few dark frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Am I wrong to see what might be a LLC further north, or on the north side of the main blob?

Aric Dunn did mention to look for a LLC near the Isle of Youth

[HurricaneBrain]

Mark, I noticed that also.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice forecast computers do not handle small systems well compared to large ones.

[KWT]

Aric Dunn did mention to look for a LLC near the Isle of Youth

That area is exactly where the new area of convection is going up as the last blob moves off and starts to weaken.