ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

12z CMC shifts west some more especially in the short term. finally initializes the current ridging a little more accurately it looks like. Though the end of run similar to the nogaps. with the cut off low opening up..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah I can buy the west shifts in the short-term over the next few days. But the problem is that the core of that Bermuda High ridge is displaced to the east in the Central Atlantic, so it just means the turn to the north around the periphery of this ridge will happen with more of a sharper turn to the north in the long-run, missing Florida and the SE US Coast like the last few systems. All the reliable guidance is showing this.

With the pattern we have been in this summer, its tough to get something into Florida or the SE US Coast unless something forms in the Western Caribbean but even that is difficult because the tropical waves that are out there are turning NW before reaching the Western Caribbean due to no Bermuda High feature in the Western Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC shifts west some more especially in the short term. finally initializes the current ridging a little more accurately it looks like. Though the end of run similar to the nogaps. with the cut off low opening up..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah I can buy the west shifts in the short-term over the next few days. But the problem is that the core of that Bermuda High ridge is displaced to the east in the Central Atlantic, so it just means the turn to the north around the periphery of this ridge will happen with more of a sharper turn to the north in the long-run, missing Florida and the SE US Coast like the last few systems. All the reliable guidance is showing this.

yes and its those same models that just had this turning and passing NE of the islands yesterday because they kept initializing the present ridging to weak ... since most of them have at least shown a "little" stronger present ridging they have adjusted .... all the models now are building/ expanding the Bermuda westward with a lobe just NE of the Bahamas. the strength of that will of course be key. so more waiting since thats still 5+ days out.

[Aric Dunn]

Hwrf same sharp Nw turn just farther west.... should be much more gradual than that.

[painkillerr]

This just has shades of Marilyn '95 to me....disorganized, then passing through Guadeloupe area, slowing down, intensifying, and then slamming up from the south....hopefully she'll stay disorganized....

Scary, I have very sad memories of Marilyn back in 95.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 52.0W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT KITTS.
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...GUADELOUPE...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA.
* ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS


INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES
A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 52.0W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF... final position is north of the Turks and Caicos, at about the latitude of Miami.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM MARIA 14L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 8

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -50.10 LAT: 13.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -52.00 LAT: 12.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -53.70 LAT: 13.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -54.70 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -55.90 LAT: 13.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -56.70 LAT: 14.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -57.70 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -58.70 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -59.90 LAT: 16.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -60.60 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -61.60 LAT: 19.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -62.50 LAT: 19.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -63.20 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -64.00 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -65.20 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -66.50 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -67.60 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -68.60 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -69.40 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -71.20 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -72.10 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

[Extratropical94]

Skipping to Observation 04 - 03 is missing

URNT15 KNHC 081746
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 04 20110908
173630 1724N 06358W 4708 05149 //// -098 //// ////// /// 020 000 34
173700 1724N 06358W 4614 05149 //// -106 //// ////// /// 019 000 34
173730 1724N 06358W 4557 05149 //// -112 //// ////// /// 019 000 34
173800 1724N 06358W 4501 05149 //// -117 //// ////// /// 019 000 34
173830 1724N 06358W 4448 05147 //// -123 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
173900 1724N 06358W 4362 05147 //// -130 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
173930 1724N 06358W 4309 05147 //// -138 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
174000 1724N 06358W 4232 05147 //// -145 //// ////// /// 020 000 34
174030 1724N 06358W 4180 05147 //// -155 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
174100 1724N 06358W 4115 05147 //// -159 //// ////// /// 020 000 34
174130 1724N 06358W 4057 05147 //// -162 //// ////// /// 020 000 34
174200 1724N 06358W 3993 05147 //// -169 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
174230 1724N 06358W 3948 05147 //// -174 //// ////// /// 020 000 34
174300 1724N 06358W 3902 05147 //// -175 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
174330 1724N 06358W 3867 05147 //// -177 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
174400 1724N 06358W 3818 05147 //// -184 //// ////// /// 023 000 34
174430 1724N 06358W 3757 05147 //// -194 //// ////// /// 022 000 34
174500 1724N 06358W 3695 05147 //// -203 //// ////// /// 023 000 34
174530 1724N 06358W 3664 05147 //// -208 //// ////// /// 024 000 34
174600 1724N 06358W 3629 05147 //// -215 //// ////// /// 021 000 34
$$

[Aric Dunn]

huge shift west for the GFDL

watch out Florida...

[Dave]

I'll try to get some pictures over here too at times.

[SFLcane]

Wow!!

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL ... final position is the northeastern side of Andros Island, Bahamas

HOUR: .0 LONG: -50.32 LAT: 12.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.73
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -51.82 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.47 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.49
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -53.35 LAT: 12.85 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.18
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -55.06 LAT: 12.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.39
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -56.96 LAT: 13.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.70
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -58.67 LAT: 14.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.42
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -59.97 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.94
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -61.63 LAT: 15.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.90
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -62.95 LAT: 16.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.63
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -64.35 LAT: 17.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.44
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -65.41 LAT: 18.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.39
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -66.88 LAT: 18.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.12
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -68.30 LAT: 19.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.55
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -69.80 LAT: 20.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.21
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -71.01 LAT: 20.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.10
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -72.31 LAT: 21.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.30
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -73.53 LAT: 22.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.99
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -74.50 LAT: 22.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.60
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -75.53 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.43
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 23.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.48
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -77.22 LAT: 24.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.46
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -77.85 LAT: 24.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.43

[HurricaneWarning92]

107 knots?!...

[gatorcane]

huge shift west for the GFDL

watch out Florida...

Hmmm. Didn't expect that really but the GFDL has been left-biased.....

I need the Euro or GFS to show that and I may believe

[Gustywind]

Scariest night of my life in St. Thomas....stay safe Gusty...and everyone else

Waouw Marilyn was an impressive one for. I suppose that the wounds are still there, not easy to close. I rembered the monstruous traffic jams when the alert was triggered too late and people trying to return home, people losing their bread under the effect of the strong gusts of wind! Let's hope that this thing spare us... be safe BatzVI and all my friend in the islands .

[tobol.7uno]

It will be a while before this plane reaches Maria. It has a long travel ahead of it. I will post images here as well as the plane works its way toward Maria. About 970 miles to the center... I am also going to be posting in Nate's Recon thread.

[Aric Dunn]

huge shift west for the GFDL

watch out Florida...

Hmmm. Didn't expect that really but the GFDL has been left-biased.....

I need the Euro or GFS to show that and I may believe

GFDL uses the GFS background synoptics.

waiting on the GFS ensemble to come out.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I think Florida residents really need to watch this. Not be too worked up about it or too concerned, but just keep an eye on it... just in case.

[Dave]

tobol I'll take care of Nate, stick to Maria if you would please. Thanks!

[Gustywind]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.5N, 65.9W or about 8.9 miles (14.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 65.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

And my house is now 30 miles, 50 km away from CPA, using the Storm Carib tool. So much for the comfort of 200+ miles yesterday!! Due here Friday night - I'll let you know how it goes Luis. Gusty must be pretty close now as well. Take care all.

What a difference a day makes.... 24 little hours... Yesterday I was 2 mile from the center and now I'm 100 miles away. Good luck Chris, Luis, Gusty and all the others.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.0N, 64.1W or about 98.8 miles (159.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 54.8 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:48PM AST).

Thanks for you wink be safe .